INTERPRETATION

BENEFIT AND LIMITATION

GLOSSARY

Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook - Temperature Range Graph

The Temperature Range Graph provides the Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook for thirteen future three-month periods. It shows the expected range of the average three month temperature (in degrees Fahrenheit on the y-axis) for thirteen outlook periods (x-axis). Expected temperature ranges are given for five confidence interval options: 99%, 95%, 90%, 75%, and 50%. A pull-down menu, to the right of the graph, allows selection of the confidence interval. By default, the graph shows the Temperature Range for the 99% confidence interval. In other words, for the default case, there is a 99% chance that the temperature will fall in the range shown for a given three-month period. The plot also indicates the 1981-2010 median, which is the middle value from 1981-2010 observations (i.e., 50% of the time the observations were higher than the median and 50% of the time the observations were lower than the median).

A text interpretation of the Temperature Range Graph is available for each three month period by mouse click on the graph's vertical line for this period. "Text Interpretation" button below the graph links to the text interpretation for all thirteen three-month periods in one document.

The table below the Temperature Range Graph displays corresponding numeric data. The table consists of 14 columns and 3 rows, with the first column identifying the data type and columns 2 through 14 providing the data values for the three-month periods specified in row 1. The second row provides the 1981-2010 median. The expected Temperature Range data for the selected confidence interval (or expected chance) are provided in the third row. Each row contains two temperature values (in degrees Fahrenheit): the top value indicates the maximum expected three-month temperature value and the bottom value indicates the minimum expected three-month temperature value for the confidence interval specified in column 1 for this row.