Working Together to Save Lives:
WFO Makes Timely Use of Weather Event Simulator

Forecasters made timely use of the new Weather Event Simulator (WES) at the Buffalo, NY, Weather Forecast Office (WFO) just days before a minor outbreak of severe weather on the afternoon of Sunday, April 28, 2002. In the outbreak, an F2 tornado struck the town of Belfast in Allegany County at 3:50 p.m., and an hour earlier an F0 tornado struck the town of Concord in Erie County.

Several days before the outbreak, Science and Operations Officer Tom Niziol and Robert Hamilton, the severe weather focal point, used the WES to demonstrate the characteristics of a Birmingham, AL, severe weather outbreak that occurred in 1998, according to Darin Figurskey, WFO Buffalo Meteorologist-in-Charge.

The Buffalo forecasters had a 90-minute simulation and discussion of the characteristics of the Birmingham case. Figurskey said one of the most striking examples from the WES was the "tightening" of rotation in a tornadic thunderstorm over western Alabama. From the beginning of the significant tightening to the actual tornado touchdown, the time lapsed was nearly a half-hour in the simulation. Several days later, on April 28, WFO Buffalo radar team members noticed a similar tightening of rotation in severe thunderstorms over western New York.

"The WES simulation helped the SOO and other forecasters observe tornadic rotation on the WSR-88D and issue a tornado warning on a storm that led to damage in a town about 10 minutes later," Figurskey said.

"The SOO at Buffalo did exactly what we would have hoped," said Eli Jacks, Training Division, NWS Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services. "The continued archiving of new national and local cases, along with regular use of the Weather Event Simulator as a training tool, will increase the odds of similar success stories in the future."

WFOs have had the Weather Event Simulator software since August 2001. The software simulates the environment for significant weather cases and enables forecast offices to add to the case study file by locally archiving AWIPS data. NWS forecasters can apply these weather simulations at their office so that they may increase warning expertise.

Research conducted in the aviation community and private industry show that 25 hours of well-designed simulations can provide 2 years of experience. John Ferree, Team Leader and Instructor at the Warning Decision Training Branch, said, "Experience may be the best teacher, but it is the most costly on many levels."

The Warning Decision Training Branch is also taking on the requirement for "well-designed" simulations, as they just released their third Simulation Guide this spring.

"These simulations guides are detailed instruction manuals to help the Science and Operations Officers integrate the WES into their local training program," said Ed Mahoney, Chief of the Warning Decision Training Branch. "The three Simulation Guides contain 18 different simulations that provide the SOOs the flexibility to match a forecaster with a particular training requirement."

Click here http://205.156.54.206/com/nwsfocus/fs102601.htm#Topic2 for the NOAA's NWS Focus story on the WES published October 26, 2001.

Update on Interactive Forecast Preparation System Developments

By Bob Glahn
IFPS Program Manager

The NWS is undergoing a monumental transition from text-based forecasts to a digital forecast database. This change is occuring with the implementation of the Interactive Forecast Preparation System (IFPS). IFPS allows forecasters to graphically interact with model data to produce a common digital database of forecast elements, from which numerous products, including the current product suite, can be generated.

This common database, the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD), will be a virtually seamless mosaic of forecasts from all NWS offices. The forecasts will be on grids at a resolution of approximately five kilometers. Forecasters will be able to provide better service to their customers by disseminating more highly detailed information than is possible with the current set of products. The NDFD will give customers and partners the flexibility of creating a wide range of text, graphic, and image products.

To aid forecasters in the transition, the NWS Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services is developing a new Professional Development Series (PDS) for IFPS. This PDS will consist of web-based modules and teletraining. Among the topics covered by teletraining will be the culture change associated with IFPS and the NDFD. An IFPS Training Information Page will be available for all forecasters to access this summer.

The NDFD is currently being tested by three clusters of WFOs which include offices from all continental United States (CONUS) regions. The offices participating in the test are sending their grids to a server where they are assembled into a national mosaic. Later this summer, other offices will be added to the current clusters. By June 2003, all CONUS offices will be sending their forecast grids to the national server for a test period. Grids produced by the WFOs will become official NWS products for the continental United States in September 2003 and in the Alaska and Pacific Regions in December 2003.

Look for future IFPS articles on collaboration issues (e.g., tools, techniques, and responsibilities of national centers and WFOs) and improved services.

NOAA Weather Radio Voice Improvement Effort Ships New Voices to WFOs

The Operational Acceptance Test for the new NOAA Weather Radio Voice Improvement Program (VIP) concluded on April 22, 2002, and the decision was made to implement the new voice at all NWS offices.

"Testing, as expected, uncovered a few problems," said Larry Lehmann, VIP project manager, Office of Science and Technology. "But all critical problems were fixed before full implementation." WFOs started receiving their VIP implementation packages on April 30.

The operational test of the male and female automated voices from Speechworks, Inc., was conducted at five Weather Forecast Offices (WFO): Portland, OR; Mt. Holly, NJ; Melbourne, FL; Atlanta, GA; and Des Moines, IA.

Listener feedback to the voices used at the operational test sites was good, Lehmann said.

In field testing, the male voice received a few more positive comments, however, there was no clear cut preference. In fact, preference even changed depending on the type of weather message (warning or forecast) being voiced.

"There are no rigid rules on how to use the male and female voices," said Herb White, NWS Dissemination Services Manager in the Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services. "Each WFO can go with what their listeners like," White explained. "The long-term goal is to use multiple voices in a typical broadcast cycle."

To begin using the improved voicing, sites need to do dictionary work, as much to check pronunciations of words such as geographical names as to correct them. Some words are pronounced differently in the male and female voice. Some sound different in a sentence context than when pronounced alone.

Lehmann said WFOs can experiment and make their own decision of how and when to use the voices. A National Public Information Statement has been produced and recorded in both the male and female voices. WFOs may broadcast these messages over NOAA Weather Radio stations to help let people know the new voices are coming soon. Sample press releases are included in the provided deployment and implementation plan.

"The NWS goal is to have most NWR products in the new voices by the end of June," White said. "However, WFOs should not risk listener confusion from poor pronunciation by rushing to put all products in the new voices before taking sufficient time to verify optimum word pronunciation," White added.

The national CRS web site contains the all the VIP documents. The CRS Help Desk has added two new people to provide more help with installation and operation questions in the next few months. Contact the Help Desk staff (Joel Nathan, Sung Vo, or Nancy Helderman) at 301-713-0191.

On April 26, 2002, the official ground breaking ceremony was held to kickoff the construction of a new West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center in Palmer, AK. Joining in the event were Rich Przywarty, Director, NWS Alaska Region; Dave Liebersbach, Director, Alaska Division of Emergency Services; Marie Nash, Chief of Staff for Senator Ted Stevens' Anchorage office; Timothy Anderson, Mayor of Matanuska-Susitna Borough; Tom Sokolowski, Geophysicist-in-Charge of the Center; and Jim Cooper, Mayor of the City of Palmer. Click here for a photo of the event.

The Center, established in the mid 60's, is recognized in the science and service arenas as a pioneer in the detection of earthquakes and the prediction of resulting tsunami. The current building has worked well for over 30 years but was not designed to support modernized computer-based operations, visiting scientists, or the growing partnerships with local and state officials and other federal partners including U.S. Geological Survey and the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Construction is scheduled to be completed in the fall of 2003.

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Kids at Work

Thanks to Western Region for submitting photos from Take Your Child to Work Day. We received photos from the Weather Forecast Offices at Great Falls, Phoenix, and Reno. Click here for a photo page of the submissions.

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Also On the Web...

• Environmental Heros Honored by NOAA. In late April, NOAA presented awards to 27 Environmental Heros for outstanding contributions for the protection and preservation of the Nation's environment. Many dedicated volunteer weather observers were honored this year in conjunction with Earth Day (April 22, 2002) celebrations around the Nation. To view a list of NOAA's 2002 Environmental Hero Award Recipients, go to http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/s892.htm.
  
  
• SIGMETS and AIRMETS and METARS, Oh Boy! Jim Roets of the Aviation Weather Center in Kansas City, MO, reports that Craig Sanders from WFO Duluth, and Sally Pavlow from WFO Indianapolis, have put together a regional newsletter for aviation that focuses on weather issues of concern to pilots and others in the aviation community. "Both Sally and Craig have put a lot of effort and personal time into this newsletter and I think it's well worth a look," said Roets. It's called The Front. Check it out at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/crh/aviation/thefront.html.

Employee Milestones

• Click here to see NEW APPOINTMENTS/TRANSFERS to NWS through April 30, 2002.
• Click here to see RETIREMENTS/DEPARTURES from NWS through April 30, 2002.