Hurricane Outlook: Above Normal Atlantic Season Likely; Central Pacific Season May Be Less Active

At a news conference kicking off National Hurricane Awareness Week (May 18-24, 2003), NOAA and the NWS released the outlook for the upcoming hurricane season.

The 2003 Atlantic hurricane season activity has a high likelihood of being above normal. The outlook calls for 11 to 15 tropical storms, producing 6 to 9 hurricanes, with 2 to 4 classified as major hurricanes (category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale). In the central Pacific, the outlook calls for 2 to 3 tropical storms; this is slightly less than the long-term average of 4.5 tropical storms per season.

Read the full NOAA news release here. Also click here to read President Bush's proclamation declaring National Hurricane Awareness Week, 2003.

Upgraded Hurricane Forecast Model Ready for Start of Hurricane Season

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction upgraded the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's Hurricane Model, one of several computer simulations used to guide NWS forecasters in predicting the behavior of hurricanes. The model upgrade includes an increase in vertical resolution from 18 to 42 levels and improvements for modeling convection (an important part of hurricane formation) and the lowest layer of the atmosphere. During testing, the new model showed forecast accuracy improvements for predicting hurricane tracks and storm intensity.

NWS Employee Helps Out at Truck Accident Scene

Quick action by an NWS employee recently helped emergency responders save two people in a pickup truck involved in an auto accident.

Regional Maintenance Specialist Larry Tennison, was en route to a new NOAA Weather Radio transmitter site near Leakesville, MS, to perform phone line tests on May 6, 2003, when he witnessed the accident. A runaway logging truck could not stop to avoid a pickup truck slowing down and signaling to make a turn.

Tennison, an NWS Southern Region Headquarters employee stationed at the Slidell, LA, Weather Forecast Office (WFO), saw the logging truck slam into the pickup, push the pickup off the road and flip it through a ditch before resting upside down with fuel leaking from the tank.

Tennison managed to avoid the logging truck and then used his cell phone to report the accident. He reached Roger Polkey a maintenance worker at Leakesville City Hall who is also the Fire Chief. Emergency vehicles arrived on the scene within minutes. The driver was evacuated by helicopter while firefighters worked to cut the woman passenger out of the smashed truck.

After the scene was cleared, Polkey helped Tennison continue on to the NOAA Weather Radio site and helped him complete the phone line tests on schedule.

"Athough unique and unusual, it was extremely significant that Larry was present to assist these folks," said Meteorologist-In-Charge Paul Trotter of WFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA. "Larry is a hero. The situational awareness Larry displayed and timely actions he took helped save lives. It was a case of going beyond the call of duty and taking ‘working together to save lives and property' to another level."

NWS, Canadian Meteorological Centre Collaborate on North American Ensemble Prediction System

For the first time, NOAA's NWS and the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) are collaborating to develop weather products with consistent reliable atmospheric representations on both sides of the United States/Canadian border. Results from a recent meeting in Dorval, Quebec, on plans for this collaboration will be released in a final report in mid-June.

The U.S./Canadian border is the world's largest, and millions of people cross it each year. Sharing resources and collaborating on products will result in reliable information being available to both countries, according to Pierre Dubreuil, Director General of the Canadian Meterological Centre.

Following the release of the report, both organizations will commit resources and technical expertise to achieve benchmarks noted in the work plan. This collaboration could result in the joint issuance of North American products within the next several years, in addition to increased accuracy of forecasts and predictions along the U.S./Canadian border.

Weather Kiosk Aids Mariners

Mariners traveling through Humboldt Bay in Northern California now have instant access to weather information thanks to a marine weather kiosk developed by the NWS and local partners.

The waters off Northern California are some of the most hazardous in the continental United States, said John Lovegrove, Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the Eureka, CA, Weather Forecast Office (WFO). The wave and wind climate, along with an exposed coastline, results in a particularly dangerous environment for mariners.

The new kiosk, located in the lobby of the Woodley Island Marina, gives mariners easy access to the weather information they need. The project, partially funded by a grant from the National Safe Boating Council, was a collaboration between NOAA/National Weather Service and the Humboldt Bay Harbor, Conservation, and Recreation District.

The grant was written by project leader Troy Nicolini, WFO Eureka, after he learned about the grant program from the Marine and Coastal Weather Services Branch at NWS Headquarters. The partners purchased a touch screen monitor and uninterruptible power supply with the grant money. The County of Humboldt provided the kiosk housing and the computer was an NWS surplus item. Lovegrove developed the web site powering the kiosk, and the Humboldt Bay Harbor District provides the Internet connection, location, and security.

Lovegrove said the kiosk was installed on April 17, 2003, to rave reviews from local mariners. A variety of information is available through the kiosk including satellite images, radar, jet stream, text forecasts, and buoy reports. The kiosk web site can be found at www.wrh.noaa.gov/Eureka/kiosk.

Also On the Web...Christian Science Monitor Article Lauds NWS Tornado Efforts

The May 14, 2003, Christian Science Monitor included a complimentary article summarizing NWS efforts in the recent record-breaking tornado outbreak and suggested the StormReady program helped save lives. Read the article by clicking here.