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'Tis the Season to Be Thankful
By General D.L. Johnson
NWS Director
When we began the Atlantic hurricane season about six and a half months ago, little did we know just how unprecedented this year's hurricane season would be.
But we did know it would be an active season. We forecast 12-15 named storm systems, and we had 14. We forecast 6-8 hurricanes, and we had 9. We forecast that 2-4 of those hurricanes would be Category 3 or higher, and we missed this one slightly... we had 6.
The question always asked is the one we cannot answer in the middle of May. How many of those storms will make landfall in the U.S.? By the end of September, we had our answer, and Florida took the brunt, impacted by four of these storms, the first time the state has been impacted by four hurricanes in a single season. The last time one state took four hits was Texas back in 1886.
In Florida alone, the total number of recommended mandatory and voluntary evacuations ordered by emergency managers for the four storms was 9.4 million people. The damage caused by hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne prompted the largest relief effort ever undertaken by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).
The storms resulted in 21 federal disaster declarations covering 13 states and Puerto Rico.
Cities and towns located hundreds and thousands of miles away from the initial impact were not immune. Parts of Richmond, VA, were inundated with a foot of rain from the remnants of Hurricane Gaston.
The number of tornadoes spawned by the storms was also unprecedented. Charley produced nine; Frances, 117; Ivan, 105; and Jeanne, 27. At least two dozen of the twisters resulting from Ivan's remnants affected the Washington, DC, area.
Property damage was incredible. Damage estimates in Florida are expected to eclipse the nearly $35 billion in damage cause by Hurricane Andrew in 1992. The Insurance Information Institute estimates that one in every five Florida homes was impacted by a hurricane to some degree this year.
There is much more for us to do. We must continually improve. Hurricane intensity forecasting is still a challenge. Charley may have been the most rapidly intensifying hurricane in history. We need to better understand why this happens.
We're looking at better ways to communicate forecast track, taking away emphasis from the skinny black line down the center of the cone of uncertainty.
We're working on probabilistic wind products.
We need to better communicate the inland hurricane force winds and find ways to heighten the message to our inland citizens. Hurricanes will never just be coastal events.
When we consider the magnitude of the season, loss of life attributable to these storms in the U.S.--while always tragic--was relatively low. Saving lives is our number one mission. But providing life-saving information to the public is a team effort, and I want to thank all team members for our performance last year.
Thank you to the folks at the National Hurricane Center, the NWS Weather Forecast Offices, River Forecast Centers, and the Center Weather Service Units in all the areas affected by these storms, who worked day in and day out to provide the most timely information to the public and emergency management officials.
Thank you, to the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, which provided rainfall forecasts and other critical forecast information used by NWS Weather Forecast Offices to determine potential local impacts once the storms moved inland.
Thank you, to the Storm Prediction Center, using their tornado expertise to help Weather Forecast Offices identify potential tornado threats associated with hurricanes and issue appropriate watches.
Thank you, to the National Data Buoy Center, which with the U.S. Coast Guard, maintained the critical data buoys that provide sea level wind speed and direction.
Thank you to the folks at NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, who continue to delve into the secrets of hurricanes to improve forecasts, and to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Lab in Princeton and others on whose models we rely to determine storm track.
Thank you to the men and women of NOAA's Marine and Aviation Operation's Hurricane Hunters and the Air Force Reserve's 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron who logged hundreds of hours of flight time, flying through, above, and around the storms to gather the important data critical to identifying storm track and intensity.
Thank you to the Hurricane Liaison Team, a partnership between NOAA and FEMA that continues to pay off year after year, working with state and local emergency management officials to keep them aware of expected hurricane conditions and impacts, and briefing the highest levels of government.
Thank you to all the emergency managers who must make the tough decisions about evacuations.
Thank you, to NOAA's National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service, which provided images of the hurricanes every 7.5 minutes to provide more precise monitoring of the hurricane movement and severe storm development in Florida.
And a special thank you to our elected leadership and the Florida Congressional delegation. It really says something about the value to America that NOAA provides when we receive visits by President Bush and Governor Bush and we receive commendations from both the Senate and House. On behalf of all of NOAA, I thank them for their continued support.
And finally, thanks to the media who, day after day, hour after hour during this unprecedented season, worked with us to get the latest information to the public, about the potential havoc these storms could bring.
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