Straight Talk:
Questions on Budget Shortfalls, CWSU Program, Digital Services

By General D.L. Johnson
NWS Director

I've had several questions recently and it's taken some time to look into the details and prepare answers. Rather than run these one at a time we're going to address several topics at once. If you have a question for the Director, send it to NWS.Focus@noaa.gov. While we won't be able to get to all the questions all the time, I'll try to answer the "hot" ones and the ones that enable the most people to gain understanding and perspective.

Budget Shortfalls

A field employee sent me a letter recently asking how the FY 2005 budget shortfalls will affect forecasters, field offices, and employee awards programs. In February, I wrote an all-hands e-mail about our FY 05 budget shortfall and stressed that while we are in the process of tightening our belt financially, we will not degrade our services.

In fact, we have worked closely with the employees' labor union, NWSEO, to revise our overall strategy to limit the impact on operational employees and preserve frontline warning and forecast operations, and we have continued to post and fill vacancies for positions. We've rearranged previously canceled training classes to focus on operations. Our employee awards budget is extremely important and we have not canceled the Cline awards or any other Weather Service award programs that recognize employees for their hard work, professionalism, and dedication. We know how important the job you do for America is, and we value you as our greatest organizational asset.

We will, however, need to work together to build an even stronger organization on tighter purse strings. We have limited elective travel, management training, and development; reduced headquarters supplies and contracts; deferred preventative maintenance; increased use of stockpiled equipment; and tightened our belt in other meaningful ways.

Safeguarding the American public is our priority, and our commitment to you, our employees, remains in the forefront of our decision-making process. We are all working hard to close the financial gap. I ask for your continued patience and hard work on the frontlines, as we deal with budget realities.

CWSU Program

Recently, I received a query about the status of the Center Weather Service Unit (CWSU) program. I want to stress how valuable CWSU personnel are to NOAA's NWS. CWSUs provide critical weather information to the FAA to minimize air traffic delays due to weather. Weather is the largest uncontrolled element in the National Airspace System (NAS) and causes the greatest number of delays.

The FAA also recognizes the value of the CWSUs and as a result, NWS and FAA are negotiating an Interagency Agreement (IA) to keep the CWSUs in the Air Route Traffic Control Centers. By their nature, IAs can only last three years. This agreement will take us through September 2008. In 2008, we will have to negotiate a new IA to cover the years 2009-2011.

In December, Russ Chew, FAA's Chief Operating Officer, and I discussed topics such as how weather impacts traffic planning, the need for consistent weather forecasts, and my promise to improve the CWSU service to FAA. In the last three months, we have already developed a training module for CWSU meteorologists that focuses on the impact of weather on NAS operations. It includes a site-specific Weather Impact Playbook each CWSU can develop for their own needs. This module is currently being tested and will be available to all CWSUs in May.

I have also directed Jack May, Director of the Aviation Weather Center, to lead an effort to look at FAA's end-to-end weather requirements so we can assess how to improve our services and the information we provide to the FAA. This is a larger effort than a CWSU evaluation alone, but CWSUs are a very important component of this appraisal. We are working closely with FAA on this. It will take several more months to work the details and we will keep everyone informed of any potential change.

Digital Services

1) Why is there so little on NDFD and limited description on Digital Services in both plans, and no key benchmarks, which we're told are key metrics used by Congress for funding and mission evaluation?

2) If NDFD is important, shouldn't NDFD have greater emphasis in both plans?

The NOAA and NWS Strategic Plans are high-level descriptions of the direction the agency is going. As you can imagine, in a brief document, it is difficult to describe in depth all critical programs in NOAA and NWS. This is especially true of the NOAA plan which covers critical areas important to all of our line offices. These plans tend to present strategies common to a wide range of programs.

In the NWS plan, all mention of specific programs is left to the supporting tables in each section. The NDFD and Interactive Forecast Preparation System are mentioned in the Weather and Water section, both in the text and table. Page 4 of our plan identifies expanding Digital Services as a major force for changes within NWS over the next 5 years. In addition, the plan mentions agency emphases on new technologies, orderly management of changes, reliable infrastructure, and more widespread introduction of GIS -- all speak toward improvements in digital services in the coming years.

The performance measures listed in the NWS strategic plan are those Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) measures we track and report to the Administration and Congress. As we are developing NDFD and strengthening verification for NDFD, the NWS will be developing appropriate performance measures.

We'll be working with the strategic plan goal leads within the PPBES process to insure that NDFD is part of our future planning efforts. NOAA is also committed to putting greater emphasis on Digital Services in our planning.

3) NOAA and NWS leaders state accuracy and timeliness are the two most important criteria external customers want from our products...including NDFD. Yet locally, we're told the most important item for creating our NDFD products is a homogeneous database with no inter-office differences. With 122 forecast offices...these are not the same. Don't these two messages contradict each other? Collaboration without verification and science and management-based decision protocols tailored toward value (i.e. accuracy) leads to a "groupthink" culture.

I believe the two messages you point out (one from NOAA and NWS leaders and the other from local leadership) are consistent. In fact, they help emphasize a very important part of our culture. That is, while we have local experts distributed across the country, studies of past performance reveal our best efforts result from a collaborative process. Recent analysis of the data in NDFD indicates that those WFOs with good NDFD error scores also have good border consistency scores.

As we transform our product line to become database oriented (through the implementation of Digital Services), I'm relying on you, and the staff members of our other Weather Forecast Offices, National Centers, River Forecast Centers, Center Weather Service Units, and the Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services, to ensure a robust collaborative process continues in order to create and maintain the highest quality data for our end users. We do not want to sacrifice accuracy just for the sake of consistency, especially when there are natural reasons for some inconsistency. We do need, however, to work as a team to produce the best service we can.

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One Thing's for Sure: Uncertainty Study is Underway

NOAA's NWS commissioned a study by the National Research Council entitled Estimating and Communicating Forecast Uncertainty in Weather and Related Forecasts. The study will provide findings and recommendations to guide NWS as it improves methods used to estimate uncertainty in its weather, water, and climate forecasts and the means used to communicate forecast uncertainty to the diverse community who use our forecast products.

Although the study will focus primarily on the NWS mission, recommendations may also affect other NOAA components or seek to guide other relevant government agencies and sectors other than the government, e.g., commercial meteorologists, the media, weather risk management institutions, and private companies.

Several NWS service assessments in the past decade have recommended that communicating uncertainty can be challenging and merits more study, including assessments of Hurricane Marilyn in1995, flooding on the Red River of the North in 1997, and Hurricane Isabel in 2003.

"We need to understand the limitations and capabilities of various approaches to estimating forecast uncertainty," said John Jones, NOAA Deputy Assistant Administrator for Weather Services, in remarks to the committee at their opening meeting recently, "whether those methods are based on the subjective confidence our forecasters have based on their professional experience or are based on more technical approaches from statistics or ensemble methods."

"When we communicate in words, we think we know what we mean, but I doubt those who read or hear our words always understand what we are trying to say. When we communicate in graphics, we think we know what the graphics mean, but I doubt those who see our graphics always understand them fully."

The National Academies Division on Earth and Life Studies, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate is conducting the study with NOAA's NWS and NOAA's Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR). From the statement of task, the study will identify and characterize needs for uncertainty information among various users of forecasts, identify limitations in current methods for estimating and validating forecast uncertainty, and identify sources of misunderstanding in communicating forecast uncertainty. The committee will examine some case studies, and various products and services of NWS and OAR. Lee Anderson of the NWS Office of Science and Technology has already assembled some of these materials and may be in touch with NWS staff to help answer the study panel's questions.

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Hurricane Outlooks: Above-Normal Activity in Atlantic; Below Normal in Pacific

The prediction for the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season is for 12 to15 tropical storms, with seven to nine becoming hurricanes, of which three to five could become major hurricanes.

"Forecaster confidence that this will be an active hurricane season is very high," said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and NOAA Administrator.

The Atlantic hurricane outlook reflects an expected continuation of above-average activity that began in 1995. Since that time all but two Atlantic hurricane seasons have been above-normal. Hurricane season starts on June 1 and ends November 30.

In contrast to the Atlantic, a below-normal hurricane season is expected in the Eastern and Central Pacific. NOAA's outlook for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, also released May 16, calls for 11-15 tropical storms, with six to eight becoming hurricanes of which two to four may become major hurricanes. Two or three tropical cyclones are projected for the Central Pacific.

"There tends to be a seesaw affect between the East Pacific and North Atlantic hurricane seasons," said Jim Laver, Director, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, MD. "When there is above normal seasonal activity in the Atlantic there tends to be below normal seasonal activity in the Pacific. This has been especially true since 1995. Six of the last ten East Pacific hurricane seasons have been below normal, and NOAA scientists are expecting lower levels of activity again this season."

"Many factors must be considered when making the seasonal hurricane outlook, including the status of the El Niño Southern Oscillation in the Pacific," said Jim Weyman, Director of NOAA's Central Pacific Hurricane Center. "Data from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center show near normal conditions, which typically mean less tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific."

"In addition, large scale atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns will likely produce a below normal season in the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico," said Muthuvel Chelliah, Lead Seasonal Hurricane Forecaster for the East and Central Pacific at the Climate Prediction Center. "In an average year, about half of the tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific develop first in the Eastern Pacific. Thus, a below normal season in the Eastern Pacific will likely contribute to a below normal season in the Central Pacific."

Read the NOAA news releases for the Atlantic and Pacific hurricane season outlooks here.

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Hurricane Awareness Tour Takes Preparedness Message to East Coast Cities

The annual East Coast Hurricane Awareness Tour May 2-6, 2005, made stops this year at Bangor, ME; Baltimore, MD; Richmond, VA; Charleston, SC; and Jacksonville, FL.

A team of hurricane experts, aided by local NWS officials, took the WP-3 Orion four engine turboprop, nicknamed "Miss Piggy," to meet emergency managers, the media and the public. Among the messages the tour promoted was a reminder of how heavy rainfall can have an impact, days after a storm passes a region. Last year, for example, the remnants of the small hurricane, Gaston, dropped more than 12 inches of rain in the Richmond, VA, area causing eight deaths. Five of these were motorists that attempted to drive through flooded roadways.

NOAA's National Hurricane Center will continue its hurricane hazard education campaign during national Hurricane Preparedness Week from May 15-21. Information is now available online at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/.

Read the full NOAA news story on the East Coast Hurricane Tour here.

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First TsunamiReady County is in Oregon

Tillamook County, OR, is the first TsunamiReady county in the continental U.S.

In addition to becoming TsunamiReady, Tillamook County has also been recognized as StormReady. There are now more than 900 StormReady communities in 47 states and 17 TsunamiReady communities along the West Coast of the U.S., Hawaii, and Alaska.

Read the full NOAA news story here.

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Hiker Honors Former NOAA NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist

By Gwen Akom, Electronics Technician
WFO Marquette, MI

A Michigan hiker began a trek April 19, 2005, walking from Mexico to Canada to raise money for the American Cancer Society in honor of the late Jackson Pellett, retired Warning Coordination Meteorologist (WCM) from the Marquette, MI, Weather Forecast Office (WFO).

Avid hiker David Estrada met and became friends with Jack while both hiked along the Appalachian Trail in 2002. Pellett, who dreamed of hiking the Appalachian Trail for many years, completed the 2,168 mile hike from Georgia to Maine between March and September of that year. He achieved his goal and earned the nickname "Weatherman" from other hikers a year after his retirement.

Jack Pellett retired from the NWS in June, 2001. Prior to his assignment to WFO Marquette as WCM in May, 1995, he worked for 10 years in the Techniques Development Laboratory and the Office of Meteorology in Silver Spring, MD, developing systems and applications requirements for AWIPS and ASOS. Prior to that Pellett worked eight years at the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, NC, updating the data acquisition, quality control, publication, and archiving processes for the Nation's solar radiation and climatological data sets. He died of pancreatic cancer in May 2004 at the age of 60.

Estrada plans to hike 2,600 miles from Mexico through California, Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia in his effort to raise funds for cancer research. He was motivated to take on the challenge of the Pacific Trail in part because of conversations he had had with Pellett along the Appalachian Trail. Estrada is wearing a desert cap specially made with Pellett's picture airbrushed on it. When he crosses the border into Canada, he will also wear a T-shirt with a picture of Pellett as he finished the Appalachian hike.

Donations can be made directly to the American Cancer Society, 1480 W. Center Suite 1, Essexville, MI, in the name of Jack Pellett. For more information on donating call 989-895-1730.

Jack Pellett's trek along the Appalachian Trail was chronicled in the Marquette Monthly Magazine and can be viewed at http://mmnow.com/mm_archive_folder/02/0205/iod.html. The Mining Journal article may be viewed at http://miningjournal.net/news/story/0420202005_new09-n0420.asp

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Cost Management Question of the Month

The Comptroller Division has resumed publishing questions of the month regarding our Cost Management System in NWS Focus.

Diana L. Locke, from Pendleton WFO in Oregon was the April 2005 cost management question of the month winner. The question was:

What cost object code corresponds to the following cost object definition? "Research and similar activities related to improving long-term (i.e., beyond two weeks) weather forecasting."

The correct answer was (e) 3.2 Climate Tech Infusion.

Congratulations, Diana!

The May 2005 cost management question of the month is:

E-mail your answer to Victoria.Harps@noaa.gov no later than May 31, 2005.

The first correct answer wins a NOAA shirt.

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Also On the Web...
FirstGov.gov Web Page Offers RSS Library

NOAA and NWS weather information is included in a new offering of "Really Simple Syndication" (RSS) information on a web page at FirstGov.gov called U.S. Government RSS Library.

RSS is a way of summarizing the latest news and information from a Website. If you click on an RSS link, you will find xml coding. In order to read the news, you will need to download an RSS Reader.

U.S. Government RSS Library: http://www.firstgov.gov/Topics/Reference_Shelf/Libraries/RSS_Library.shtml

Download an RSS Reader at http://www.bnl.gov/bnlweb/pubaf/pr/rss-faq.asp.

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Snapshots

Click here for a look at photos we've received from around the NWS.