Hurricane Forecasts Go To Five Days This Summer

When hurricane season begins in May, the NWS will issue five-day hurricane forecasts in place of the previous standard three-day forecasts, the NWS announced in a news release and press conference today.

The change follows two years of customer feedback and testing, said Scott Kiser, NOAA Hurricane Program Manager in the Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services. Customers surveyed included emergency managers, the private sector, media, NWS Weather Forecast Offices and River Forecast Centers, marine users, countries served by NWS's Tropical Prediction Center (TPC), the U.S. Navy, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. "Eighty percent of customers said extending forecasts to five days would be useful or essential," Kiser said.

TPC and Central Pacific Hurricane Center personnel performed in-house tests to determine if the five-day forecast skill level met customer expectations. The five-day forecast skill met or exceeded the majority of customer needs. As a result, effective May 15, 2003, the start of the 2003 hurricane season, the five-day forecasts will be implemented.

Working Together To Save Lives:
Component of AHPS Provides Advance Warning in Kentucky

The NWS's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) played a major role recently in preparing five eastern Kentucky counties for flooding. Flash Flood and Monitoring Prediction (FFMP), a component of AHPS, identified the precise creeks where flash flooding would occur and helped reduce the loss of life and property.

On February 15, 2003, as heavy precipitation surged across the central United States, Mike Lewis, Science and Operations Officer from the Weather Forecast Office (WFO) in Jackson, KY, issued flash flood warnings based on the FFMP and other hydrologic applications. The flash flood event evolved into area-wide flooding. FFMP isolated areas where the estimated precipitation exceeded one-hour flash flood guidance. The staff at WFO Jackson analyzed and monitored the storm and used FFMP and other AHPS applications to generate short-term forecasts and warning guidance for specific sub-basins and tributaries.

"The terrain is complex in Kentucky," said Lewis. "I used the [FFMP] tools to key in which streams and creeks would have the greatest impact. Without FFMP, I wouldn't have been able to narrow it down to the precise location where flooding would occur."

The local rescue squad saved nearly 50 people from rising water at several locations throughout Floyd County. Eddie Patton, Director for Disaster Emergency Services for Floyd County, said, "Because the NWS told us when, where, and how high the rivers would crest, we were able to redirect our emergency services to locations that needed the most help."

Floyd County emergency services made timely mitigating decisions based, in part, on the Jackson AHPS webpage. According to Lewis, "County officials said this was the smoothest performance they had ever experienced and the flow of information was far and above the best yet."

Eric Thomas, Assistant Director East Kentucky Science Center, Prestonsburg, KY, expressed similar appreciation to the NWS in a letter to the Jackson WFO.

"I doubt we would have been able to come through this time with such a minimal loss of property without the assistance the staff of the Jackson National Weather Service gave to us," Thomas wrote.

Corporate Board Considers Study Results, NWS Future Roles

The NWS Corporate Board met February 24-26, 2003, in Elkridge, MD. While the NWS has achieved an unprecedented level of success, discussions continue among our executive managers on the future direction of the NWS.

"We take our future very seriously," said Deputy Director John Jones. "Andy Grove, Chairman of Intel once said, '...the inertia of success...is extremely dangerous.' While it would be nice to take a break and enjoy our achievements, change is inevitable. We must continually ask ourselves what will influence our future and how can we best leverage these influences to best support our workforce and mission."

At this meeting the board members explored input from employees, gained training from a management consultant, and listened to invited guests, both inside and outside the NWS.

Guest speakers offered a variety of perspectives for the board to consider: James R. Mahoney, NOAA Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere addressed climate services of the future. Greg Withee, Director, National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service; Ants Leetmaa, Director, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory; and Paul Moersdorf, Director, National Data Buoy Center, led discussions on NOAA and NWS future roles and challenges in integrated observations, climate services, and oceanography, respectively.

John Armstrong, Chair of the National Academy of Science's Committee on Partnerships in Weather and Climate Services addressed findings and recommendations of the recently released National Academy Study "Fair Weather: Effective Partnerships in Weather and Climate Services." Review Armstrong's presentation by clicking here.

In addition to the discussions generated by the guest speakers, several board members addressed other topics which may impact the NWS in the future, including evolving customer service needs, new products and services needed by the Nation like air quality, information technology services of the future and the status of NOAA and NWS strategic plans. Board members also participated in a training session on change management and critical thinking, led by expert Ben Bissell.

"Work by the Corporate Board takes place through its committees as well as in these plenary sessions," explained Jones. Examples of committee actions include the establishment of the Hardship Transfer Policy, and the Ask Why program. Other issues being handled by the committees include how to address the shortage of qualified GS-12 meteorologists in the field, the impact of the Interactive Forecast Preparation System on the workforce and the NWS Science and Technology Infusion Plan.

"These plenary sessions ensure all board members maintain a common knowledge and awareness that help guide decisions when they go back to their committees to work," said Jones.

Look for future stories about Corporate Board activities in NOAA's NWS Focus.

Warning Decision Making Module Available on the Web

The Warning Decision Training Branch has developed an online presentation entitled "Learning from History: Warning Decision Making Implications from Significant Events."

The module summarizes warning decision making concepts presented in collaboration with field sites at WDM workshops since 1997. Concepts are presented in the context of significant severe weather events which have occurred over the past several years. The training module also addresses situation awareness, reviews of severe weather conceptual models, and warning strategies.

"This module is a beneficial addition for any individual or office preparing a training plan for the spring convective weather season," said Ed Mahoney, Chief of the Warning Decision Training Branch, NWS Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services.

The training module is in a VisitView format and provides audio narration.  Speaker notes are also available for this module.  Both can be downloaded from the WDTB web site at http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov.

Also On The Web...Surface Transportation Study Identifies Weather Information Needs

A new report on weather support for surface transportation offers a look at several transportation sectors and identifies existing and potential needs for improved weather information.

The Weather Information for Surface Transportation (WIST) National Needs Assessment Report was prepared by the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology (OFCM). The 300-page report considers six surface transportation sectors and their information needs: roadway, railway, transit, marine transportation, pipeline systems, and airport ground operations. The report identifies user needs across the six sectors studied, and provides estimates of economic and safety benefits which could result from decision makers having improved weather information.

For more information, see the report's table of contents on the OFCM website.

Employee Milestones

• Click here to see NEW APPOINTMENTS/TRANSFERS to NWS through February 28, 2003.
• Click here to see RETIREMENTS/DEPARTURES from NWS through February 28, 2003.