000
FXUS65 KBOI 092054
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
254 PM MDT FRI MAY 9 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SHORT-LIVED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WHILE A STRONG
TROUGH TAKES AIM ON US FOR SUNDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE WARMER TEMPS
WITH NO PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY...AND THEN A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY
SUNDAY EVERYWHERE BUT IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY IN SE OREGON AND AROUND MIDDAY FOR
SW IDAHO. THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WILL BE THE LAST PLACE IN OUR
CWA TO SEE THE COLD FRONT...AND THEREFORE THEIR HIGH TEMPS ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASES ON
SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...
ESPECIALLY THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP PUSH LOW TEMPS DOWNWARD SAT
MORNING...BUT WINDS AND CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD HOLD MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES UP ABOUT 10 DEGREES COMPARED TO SATURDAY MORNING.
THERE WERE NO IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE NAM...GFS...OR ECMWF
FOR THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE
EXITING THE CWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SETTLING IN OVER THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY GENERATED
BY THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SUSTAIN MOUNTAINS SHOWERS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON MONDAY...TAPERING OFF BY TUESDAY MORNING. RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOUT 5 DEGREES EACH DAY. THE LATEST COUPLE
OF MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SPILLING WARM FRONTAL MOISTURE OVER THE
RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS DIFFERENT FROM THE DRY FORECAST WE
HAD YESTERDAY. WITH CURRENT MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS
FEATURE...MENTIONABLE POPS AND CLOUDS WERE INTRODUCED INTO THE
WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS. THE RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...CENTERING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND RAISE TEMPERATURES TO NEARLY 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL
CEILINGS ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
THIS EVENING SKIES CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TONIGHT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG GUSTS THROUGH THE UPPER TREASURE
AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE MODERATE NORTHWEST.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR SATURDAY...BUT SUNDAY WILL SEE SCATTERED
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS DUE TO SHOWERS ALONG WITH LOCAL MVFR CIG
NORTH OF KBNO-KONO-KJER DUE TO A COLD FRONT.


&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....DF/LH
AVIATION.....DF