000
FXUS62 KJAX 231354
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
954 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2012

.UPDATE...
RAIN CHANCES MUCH LOWER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS INCREASE IN
MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIRMASS HAS DROPPED PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS
TO AROUND ONE INCH. STILL FAIRLY COOL ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS
CLOSE TO 13C AND THIS WILL STILL ALLOW FOR THE THREAT OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM ACROSS NE FL TODAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY. W/SW STEERING FLOW WILL HOLD OFF THE ATLC COAST SBRZ
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH
INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER INLAND AREAS AND UPPER 80S ALONG THE ATLC
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR WITH RAIN CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT TAF
LOCATIONS AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL BECOME S/SE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 15 KNOTS WITH A NOCTURNAL SURGE CLOSE TO
15-20 KNOTS TONIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE WITH A
MIXTURE OF WIND WAVES AND EASTERLY SWELLS AT 2-4 FT. ANY TSTM
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED.


RIP CURRENTS: WILL UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK ALONG THE COAST AS
SOME LONGER PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE SHOWING UP
AT THE LOCAL BUOYS OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMBINATION OF LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE UPPER
50S WILL ALLOW FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF CRITICAL RH LEVELS ACROSS THE
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  63  91  67 /   0   0  10  10
SSI  86  72  85  73 /   0   0  20  10
JAX  89  67  88  71 /   0  10  20  10
SGJ  86  71  85  73 /  10  10  30  20
GNV  92  66  91  69 /   0   0  20  10
OCF  93  68  91  69 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/MCALLISTER