000 FXUS66 KMFR 082230 AFDMFR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 230 PM PST SUN NOV 8 2009 .DISCUSSION...CURRENT VIS SHOWS CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE CWA. LOW CLOUDS HAVE BURNED OFF IN THE ROGUE VALLEY AND WILL BURN OFF IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AND MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE COAST AND IN NORTHWEST DOUGLAS COUNTY. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL BUILD IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON ONTO THIS EVENING KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL END UP COOLER WITH SOME AREAS GETTING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN THE ROGUE VALLEY. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THE NEXT FRONT REACHING THE COAST MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA AT THE COAST...EXCEPT FOR CAPE BLANCO WHERE WINDS COULD PUSH 40+ MPH. THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HINT AT A WAVE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE COAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THEN SPREAD INLAND DURING THE DAY. SNOW LEVELS MONDAY WILL START OUT AROUND 6500 FEET...THEN LOWERING TO 5500 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND STALL OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE AND WILL GENERALLY MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 4000 FEET NORTH AND 5000 FEET SOUTH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION ALONG HWY 140 AND THE SISKIYOU SUMMIT BY TUESDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON PRECIP INTENSITY AND DURATION. A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH OFF AND ON SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS START OUT AT AROUND 5000 FEET WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN LOWERING TO 4000 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL SUPPORT A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED...BUT THEY VARY WIDELY ON THE TIMING OF INCOMING SYSTEMS...SOMETIMES 180 DEGREES OUT OF PHASE. WILL GO WITH A GENERALLY WET FORECAST FROM THURSDAY ON...BUT WILL SMOOTH OUT VARIATION IN THE POPS TO REFLECT THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY. NONE OF THE INCOMING SYSTEMS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE UNUSUALLY STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .AVIATION...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVER THE INLAND TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. AREAS OF FOG COULD DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER 15Z OR SO IN THE ROGUE VALLEY IF THE CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE. MEANWHILE THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER AT THE COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN TO KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING. CIGS WILL LOWER AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR NEAR KOTH AFTER 14Z. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021- ORZ022. CA...NONE. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ356. HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ356. GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ356. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ356. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ350. HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ350. GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ350. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ350. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370-PZZ376. HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ370. GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ370. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370-PZZ376. HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ376. GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ376. $$ PETRUCELLI