000
FXUS62 KMLB 231342
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
942 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2012

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOW THAT MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER ONLY AROUND ONE INCH.  GPS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INDICATES HIGHER VALUES IN THE SOUTH...1.4 TO 1.5
INCHES.  WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WITH UNPERTURBED WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT. MID LEVEL
TEMPS ARE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL QUITE
COOL FOR THE WARM SEASON (MINUS 10 TO 11 AT 500MB).  THE MODELS
INDICATE THAT THESE READINGS WILL RISE TO AROUND MINUS 9 DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH RIDGE AXIS
VICINITY CENTRAL PENINSULA.  THE FLOW IS STILL ELEVATED AROUND 15
KNOTS DUE TO NOCTURNAL INCREASE...BUT THE MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL
WINDS DECREASING.  THE RIDGE AXIS IS ALSO FORECAST TO NUDGE NORTH
DUE TO INFLUENCE OF INVERTED TROUGH OVER CUBA/FLORIDA STRAITS.

LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTH HALF SHOULD CONFINE THE CHANCE
FOR STORMS TO LATE IN THE DAY AND IN THE EVENING AS EAST/WEST COAST
BOUNDARIES COLLIDE.  THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE ALONG/WEST OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR.

EARLIER CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE SOUTH WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS...40 PERCENT IN THE COUNTIES AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ADVECT HIGHER MOISTURE A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH...BUT NOT MUCH...MAYBE BRINGING SCATTERED COVERAGE INTO SOUTH
OSCEOLA AND SOUTHWEST BREVARD.

NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST ARE PLANNED.  THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK...WHICH CALLS FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO FORM ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
15-16Z AND POSSIBLY AFFECT KSUA-KFPR.  THINK THAT ISOLATED STORMS
NORTHWARD TO KVRB-KMLB WILL BE WEST OF THE TERMINALS.  LATE DAY
EAST/WEST SEA BREEZE COLLISION...POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 00Z...SHOULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS AGAIN AND AFFECT TERMINALS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS VICINITY OF CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL PRODUCE
A FAIRLY TYPICAL SOUTHEAST/SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW PATTERN.  THE
NOCTURNAL WIND SPEED INCREASE WILL WANE THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
AND 10 KNOTS OR LESS OF GRADIENT FLOW WILL THEN OCCUR...THOUGH SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION TO AROUND 15 KNOTS NEAR THE COAST IS FORECAST
AGAIN.

ISOLATED/SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE GULF STREAM
EARLY THIS MORNING USUALLY MEANS THAT DURING DAYTIME HEATING SIMILAR
COVERAGE WILL OCCUR OVER LAND...FROM ABOUT LAKE KISSIMMEE TO BLUE
CYPRESS LAKE AND SOUTHWARD TO OKEECHOBEE.  STORM MOTION LOOKS SLOW
AND ERRATIC WITH A FEW STRONGER ONES PROBABLY MOVING NORTHEAST 5-10
MPH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...THE AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE IS NOT QUITE AS DRY AS
YESTERDAY...BUT EXPECT THAT ENOUGH MIXING WILL OCCUR TO LOWER DEW
POINTS BELOW MOS VALUES.  THIS WOULD RESULT IN RH VALUES 30-35
PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS...NOT QUITE AS LOW AS YESTERDAY THOUGH.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WEATHER...MOSES