000
FXUS66 KMFR 092109
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
209 PM PDT FRI MAY 9 2008

.DISCUSSION...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS MOVING OVER THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH IS ALLOWING THE CLOUD COVER TO DISSIPATE OVER MOST
OF THE CWA. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. SOME
MARINE CLOUDS WILL HUG ALONG THE COAST WITH SOME SEEPING INTO THE
VALLEYS IN COOS CURRY AND NORTHWEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THAT SHOULD BE THE EXTENT OF IT. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST SATURDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE NORTH
OF THE CWA WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS TRACKING THROUGH NORTHWEST
OREGON. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES CONFINED TO THE COOS AND NORTHERN
DOUGLAS COUNTIES AND THE NORTHERN CASCADES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EVEN THEN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES OR VERY
LIGHT INTERMITTENT RAIN. ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
TRACK THROUGH SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON BY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
LEAD TO INCREASED WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES.
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE SPOTTY AND
CONFINED TO THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAIN
EFFECT FROM THIS WILL BE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES AND WINDY EAST.

A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CWA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE ECMWF FLATTENS OUT THE RIDGE A LITTLE MORE COMPARED TO
THE GFS...BUT THE NET RESULT WILL BE THE SAME. DRY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST TEMPERATURES IN
THE ROGUE VALLEY COULD BE PUSHING 90 DEGREES BY NEXT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF DIVERGE AFTER SATURDAY WITH THE
GFS SUGGESTING A SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH NORTHERN OREGON. THE
ECMWF MAINTAINS THE STRONG 5H RIDGE WHICH MAY BE THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO.





&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. VFR WILL
PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING WITH MARINE CLOUDS MOVING
TOWARDS THE COASTLINE TOWARDS 12Z SATURDAY. CIGS ALONG THE COAST
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE AROUND 9000 FEET WITH SCATTERED
CLOUD COVER NEAR 4000 FEET.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

PETRUCELLI