000
FXUS66 KPQR 100449
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
844 PM PST TUE FEB  9 2010

.SYNOPSIS.. AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN
MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY AS AN INCOMING SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON... THEN THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTER WEDNESDAY
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS BRINGS RAIN TO THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM FRIDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...MOSTLY JUST HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. SOME ARRAS OF FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT IN THE VALLEYS...BUT
WITH THE INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
THEY SHOULD NOT BE TOO EXTENSIVE. TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM IS UNCHANGED IN THE MODELS AND THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD. QUIET WEATHER OF THE PAST FEW DAYS IS OVER BEGINNING TOMORROW.
NO REAL BREAK IN PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
THE WARM FRONT FOR THURSDAYS SYSTEM CONNECTS UP WITH THE COLD FRONT
FROM WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM. A MORE ENERGETIC SYSTEM EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS ALONG THE HEADLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GFS MAINTAINS THE INTEGRITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AS
IT CROSSES THE COAST BUT THE NAM KEEPS THE TROUGH OFFSHORE AND
WEAKENS IT AS IT CROSSES THE COAST WHICH WOULD BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR
HIGH WINDS. CONFIDENCE IN HIGH WINDS FOR THE COAST NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR ANY KIND OF A WATCH FOR THURSDAY BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
REEVALUATED LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...AN VERY WET AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH SYSTEMS EVERY 24 TO 36 HOURS. INDIVIDUAL
SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA RATHER QUICKLY. AFTER BRIEF
CLEARING LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO
THE COAST AND INLAND SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE LATE MONDAY. BROWN

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
ARRIVES. PATCHY TO AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN
SOMETIME BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE CENTRAL AND S
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND CHANCE
OF RAIN BEGINNING AROUND 18Z WED MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH WED
EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. A 50 PCT CHANCE OF
IFR IN FOG RETURNING AROUND 11Z BUT WILL BE COMPETING WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 FT WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
WED. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE WATERS BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL GALES BY WED EVENING AND STRONGER GALES BY
THU AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL ALSO BE BUILDING ABOVE 10 FT. ADDITIONAL
FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA FRI AND SAT CONTINUING A
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE WED EVENING
THROUGH THU EVENING.

$$