000 FXUS66 KPQR 131040 AFDPQR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR 239 AM PST MON FEB 13 2012 .SYNOPSIS...AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE DISTRICT THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MOST OF THE ENERGY HEADS SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA AND A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OREGON AND WASHINGTON. HOWEVER THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL COME IN QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SNOW DOWN TO THE FOOTHILLS. AFTER ANOTHER BREAK ON WEDNESDAY THE WEATHER APPEARS TO BECOME GRADUALLY MORE ACTIVE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .SHORT TERM...SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND CANADA...WITH A STRONG PUNCH OF JET ENERGY ENTERING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR THE NORTHERN CA COAST. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY CAUSE AN UPPER LOW TO DEVELOP AND CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AS IT DRIFTS INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY. MEANWHILE...STEADY LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CONTINUES MAINLY DUE TO DEFORMATION ALONG THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW OVER CA BECOMES MORE DOMINANT AND THE NORTHERN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES. TEMPERATURES SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS AROUND 1500-2000 FT IN THE COAST RANGE AND 2000-2500 FT IN THE CASCADES THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN STEADY LIGHT SNOW ABOVE THESE ELEVATIONS...NOT LIKELY ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. SNOW LEVELS LIKELY REMAIN AROUND THE SAME ALL DAY WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SOME VERY GRADUAL CLEARING IS POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING...BUT IF THIS OCCURS IT PROBABLY WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO FORM. SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY FLIRT WITH FREEZING TEMPS TUE MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE LOWER SIDE...PERHAPS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THOSE TODAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL... WITH THE GFS THE LEAST CONSISTENT MODEL. POPS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP TO LIKELY BUT NO HIGHER YET UNTIL A BIT MORE MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS ACHIEVED. THIS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY AND WE HAVE A DECENT CHANCE AT A BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM THURSDAY. WEAGLE/TOLLESON .LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXTENDED FCST...AS PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THAT BRINGS ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF RAIN ON THU AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIVES THROUGH THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THROUGH BC/WASHINGTON. GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...MODELS AGAIN DIVERGE. THE ONE THING THEY CAN AGREE ON IS THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN A PROGRESSIVE WINTER TIME PATTERN...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE PAC NW. KEPT POPS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. JFP && .AVIATION....AS LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUES THIS MORNING EXPECT TO SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL TURN MORE SHOWERY BY 18Z WITH VFR BECOMING DOMINANT AFTER 22Z. KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TURN MORE SHOWERY AFTER 17Z WITH VFR BECOMING PREDOMINANT AFTER 19Z. && .MARINE...NW WINDS WILL RISE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE COAST. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA SEES WINDS PEAKING IN SMALL CRAFT CATEGORY. WINDS IN THE NORTHERN INNER WATERS MAY STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE STRONGEST GRADIENTS REMAIN OFFSHORE AND SOUTH. SEAS WILL ALSO RISE TODAY AS A WESTERLY SWELL TRAIN ARRIVES...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID TEENS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. WA...NONE. PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM- WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM PST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM-WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM PST TUESDAY FOR COLUMBIA RIVER BAR. && $$ MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.