000
FXUS62 KTBW 231420
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1020 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2012

.DISCUSSION...
LOOKING AT RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
RIDGING OVER THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH OF FLORIDA. THE TBW MORNING SOUNDING CAME IN SLIGHTLY MORE
MOIST THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT WITH STILL UNDER AN INCH OF
PWAT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD STARTING TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN OVER SOUTHERN ZONES. OTHERWISE ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
EARLIER MVFR CIGS AROUND KFMY/RSW HAVE SCATTERED OUT IN THE PAST
HOUR WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. SCT-BKN CU FIELD WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED INTO TH AFTERNOON
LEADING TO A FEW ISOLATED/WDLY SCT THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE
DAY/EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS CONVECTION WILL BE FROM KPGD SOUTHWARD.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED. SEA BREEZES WILL FORM IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  73  91  75 /  20  20  30  20
FMY  91  72  91  74 /  30  20  30  20
GIF  92  71  92  71 /  20  20  30  10
SRQ  88  71  90  73 /  20  20  30  20
BKV  91  65  92  69 /  10  10  20  20
SPG  86  76  89  77 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/CARLISLE
AVIATION...14/MROCZKA