000 AXUS75 KTFX 202036 DGTTFX DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 236 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013 ...Lack of Early Spring Precipitation Causes Drought Conditions to Worsen in West, Southwest and Central Montana... SYNOPSIS... The monthly accumulated precipitation across Montana for April was below normal. Scattered areas of the state did see above normal precipitation, with the wettest area along the Idaho border in northwest Montana. This was the 4th consecutive month with below normal precipitation and the ninth of the past 12 months with below normal precipitation. Snowfall for April averaged below normal for the state as a whole - the average of 7.5 inches was 0.8 inches below average. For the water year, statewide snowfall averaged 52.1 inches...about 6 inches below normal. For the state as a whole, winds were above average in April. As of May 14, the portion of Montana in some stage of drought on the National Drought Monitor was just under 35 percent /34.84/, up slightly from April 16. The portion of Montana in the D3 Extreme Drought category has increase and is now nearly 5 percent /4.77/. Nearly 11 percent /10.65/ is in the D2 Severe Drought category. That portion of the state in the D1 Moderate Drought category remains at nearly 20 percent /19.42/. Just under 14 percent /13.78/ of Montana is in the D0 Abnormally Dry category. http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/pics/mt_dm.png The Drought Outlook released May 16 shows Drought Persistence through the end of August from southwest through south central Montana. The Outlook also indicates Drought Development is expected slightly north of this area. The far southeast corner of the state is expected to see at least some improvement through the end of August. This assessment is based on current near to slightly below normal snowpack in the mountains, good reservoir storage and a climate outlook that is indicating better chances for drier than normal precipitation amounts for the June through August period. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/sdohomeweb.gif SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS... The Montana Governor`s Drought and Water Supply Advisory Committee had its mandatory April meeting Thursday, April 18, and will continue to meet monthly through the spring, summer and early autumn. http://nris.mt.gov/drought/status/current/drtstatusmd.jpg SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS... At mid-May, soil moisture over Montana west of the Continental Divide was noted to be above normal while areas in central, south central and southeast Montana were noted to be below normal. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... As of May 12, topsoil moisture ranked as short to very short was 50 percent /26 percent last year/. Subsoil moisture short to very short was 49 percent /27 percent last year/. Winter wheat condition was slightly below that of last year with 52 percent good to excellent /59 percent last year/. CLIMATE SUMMARY... April across Montana was generally cooler than normal with near normal precipitation. Temperatures for April 2013 were the 11th coldest of 119 years of record. Precipitation for the state ranked as the 67th driest of 119 years. For the first half of May 2013, a composite of 22 stations across Montana averaged only 0.12 inches of precipitation - the average is 0.98 inches. This is the driest first half of May on record for Montana. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/national/Statewideprank/201304-201304.gif http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/national/Statewidetrank/201304-201304.gif PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... The June outlook for Montana released May 16 indicates a 33 to 40 percent chance temperatures will be above normal across west, southwest, and south central Montana as well as portions of central and southeast Montana. For the remainder of the state, there are equal chances temperatures will be above, below or near normal. For precipitation for June, there is a 33 to 40 percent chance precipitation will be below normal in a band from northwest to southeast Montana. There is a 40 to 50 percent chance precipitation will be below normal over southwest Montana. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off14_prcp.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off14_temp.gif For our remaining summer months of July through September, the outlook indicates better chances for above normal temperatures statewide - 40 to 50 percent chance for above normal temperatures across extreme southwest and south central with 33 to 40 percent chances over the remainder of the state. The precipitation outlook for July through September shows a 40 to 50 percent chance for below normal precipitation west of the Continental Divide and over portions of north central and central Montana. The remainder of the state shows a 33 to 40 percent chance for below normal precipitation. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead02/off02_prcp.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead02/off02_temp.gif In an update released May 9, the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center with the International Research Institute for Climate and Society stated that El Nino Southern Oscillation /ENSO/ neutral conditions are favored into late summer 2013. http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/figure1.gif HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... With recent warm temperatures causing mountain snowmelt, streamflows for most sites are in the normal to above normal percentiles. http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/images/real/mt/realb.gif The SWSI /Surface Water Supply Index/ issued by the Natural Resources Conservation Service indicates streams across the northern portion of Montana are mostly Near Average to Slightly Wet. Streams across central and southern portions of Montana are mostly Slightly Dry to Moderately Dry. http://nris.mt.gov/NRCS/swsi/GIF/swsi201305.gif Reservoirs across Montana are mostly near to slightly above historical averages for the date. Recent snowmelt runoff and the beginning of irrigation demands are increasing reservoir releases. Continued drier than average conditions across much of west and southwest Montana in April resulted in the snowpack in several basins continuing to drop below their median for the date. Well above normal temperatures in early May cause rapid snowmelt in some basins. As of mid-May, only basins along the Rocky Mountain Front maintained near average snowpack for the date. All other basins were below to well below average. http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/snotelanom/snotswe.gif NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... Through the spring, updates to this product will be made on a monthly basis, typically between the 15th and 25th. The next issuance of the drought information statement for Montana should be no later than Friday June 21 2013. RELATED WEB SITES... Additional information on current drought conditions may be found at the following web addresses... U.S. Drought Monitor...www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ NOAA Drought Information Center...www.drought.noaa.gov/ National Integrated Drought Information System /NIDIS/Drought Portal... drought.gov Montana Drought and Water Information...drought.mt.gov NWS Great Falls Drought Information... http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/tfx/main/drought.php?wfo=tfx Western Regional Climate Center...wrcc.dri.edu Climate Prediction Center /CPC/...www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ NWS River Information...water.weather.gov/ahps/ USGS Water Resources of Montana...mt.water.usgs.gov/ US Bureau of Reclamation Great Plains Region...www.usbr.gov/gp/ US Bureau of Reclamation Pacific Northwest Region...www.usbr.gov/pn/ US Army Corps of Engineers Omaha District... www.nwo.usace.army.mil/html/op-r/regwebpg.htm Natural Resources Conservation Service Water Supply... www.mt.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/watersupply/index.html National Interagency Fire Center Predictive Services... www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/predictive.htm ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS... The Drought Monitor is a multi-agency effort involving NOAA`s National Weather Service and National Climatic Data Center...the US Department of Agriculture...state and regional centers, climatologists, and the National Drought Mitigation Center. Information for this statement has been gathered from NWS and FAA observation sites, Montana Department of Natural Resources, State Cooperative Extension Services, USDA, NRCS, USACE and USGS. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... If you have any questions or comments about this Drought Information Statement, please contact... National Weather Service 5324 Tri-Hill Frontage Road Great Falls MT 59404 Phone: 406-453-2081 w-tfx.webmaster@noaa.gov $$