000
FXUS10 KWNH 140522
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1222 AM EST TUE FEB 14 2012

VALID FEB 14/0000 UTC THRU FEB 17/1200 UTC


...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST...


00Z/14 PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES


ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE NAM DO NOT APPEAR TO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT ITS SOLUTION.


...DISJOINTED WAVE CROSSING THE EASTERN STATES DAY 1...

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: NONE

THE RECENT GUIDANCE HANDLES THIS SYSTEM COMPARABLY.


...NEXT COMPLEX SYSTEM EMERGING ONTO THE PLAINS EARLY DAY 2...

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: PENDING 00Z/14 ECMWF

THE NAM...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS...SPREADS SIGNIFICANTLY
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF...OWING TO
INTERACTION WITH A SHARPER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE.  THE UKMET
DOES NOT SHOW THE EXTENT OF NORTHERN STREAM INTERACTION INDICATED
BY THE NAM AND GFS...BUT IS SUBSTANTIALLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM EASTWARD.  WITH THE ONGOING
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS...WILL AWAIT THE 00Z/14 ECMWF BEFORE MAKING A
RECOMMENDATION.


...VORTEX SETTLING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE DAY 2...

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: GFS OR ECMWF

THE NAM IS ABOUT A HALF DAY SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF TO
DIRECT THIS SYSTEM SOUTHWARD.  THE UKMET TRAJECTORY IS EAST OF THE
OTHER MODELS.  WILL RELY ON THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF AT THIS POINT.


...WAVE COMING ASHORE IN THE NORTHWEST EARLY DAY 3...

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: GFS OR ECMWF

THE NAM DIRECTS THIS IMPULSE MORE ZONALLY THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF.
THE UKMET IS A SLOW OUTLIER.  WILL RELY ON THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF AT THIS POINT.


...TREND GRAPHICS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML...

...500MB FORECASTS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML...


CISCO
$$