WAKEFIELD FIRE WEATHER OPPERATING PLAN

This Plan is an agreement between the Wakefield Virginia National Weather Service Office and the agencies with land and fire management responsibilities to outline weather support for forestry operations in Eastern and Central Virginia as well as the Maryland Eastern Shore and Northeastern North Carolina. This plan incorporates procedures detailed in the National Agreement for Meteorological Services in Support of Agencies with Land Management and Fire Protection Responsibilities, found in APPENDIX_A of this document.

This Operating Plan will be the governing document for fire weather procedures and cooperation between the following agencies:

National Weather Service Forecast Office – Wakefield VA

Virginia Interagency Coordination Center (VICC)

US Dept. of Forestry

Virginia Department of Forestry

US Fish and Wildlife Service

National Park Service

NC Forest Service

Maryland Department of Natural Resources

Users shall be defined as any person, group, agency or body, which uses the products and services, provided by the NWS in support of fire operations.

The NWS has been directed by the Executive Branch and Congress to discontinue specialized fire weather services to non-Federal entities (i.e. state, county and local agencies) for non-wildfire activities, including the following:

· Spot forecast for prescribed burning operations;

· Spot forecasts for non-fire management activities;

· Transport and stability forecasts for smoke management;

· Consultation and liaison for non-wildfire activities;

· And land management forecasts issued outside federal fire services.

Details can be found in the Federal Register (Vol. 60, No. 128, P. 34969-34970). See APPENDIX_B.

MAILING ADDRESS:

National Weather Service

10009 General Mahone Hwy.

Wakefield, VA 23888-2742

CONTACTS:

Meteorologist in Charge………………………….Tony Siebers

Warning Coordination Meteorologist.……….......Bill Sammler

Fire Weather Program Manager..…........……….Brian Hurley

Assistant Fire Weather Program Manager……..James Foster

The Forecast office is staffed, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, through the year, including holidays. Forecasters are available for special forecasts or consultation, conditions permitting. No specific forecaster is dedicated to the fire weather products or services. During severe weather situations, forecasters may have to attend to other priorities. Extra staffing is typically available during administrative hours (8am - 4pm Monday through Friday.)

TELEPHONE NUMBERS:

Administrative/Forecast Operations.......................(757) 899 - 2415

(Direct forecast questions to the public forecaster or fire weather program manager)

Severe Weather Reports..........................................(800) 737 - 8624

(Severe weather reports only!)

Fax.............................................................................(757) 899 - 5107

These numbers are unlisted! Please do not release to the Public.

EMAIL ADDRESSES

Tony Siebers.……………….anthony.siebers@noaa.gov

Bill Sammler........…………...william.sammler@noaa.gov

Brian Hurley………………... brian.hurley@noaa.gov

James Foster.……………... james.foster@noaa.gov

REGIONAL CONTACTS:

National Weather Service
Eastern Region Headquarters	Regional Fire Weather Service
Airport Corporate Center	Program Leader
630 Johnson Ave.	Harvey E. Thurm
Bohemia, NY 11716	(516) 244-0124

WAKEFIELD VA WEBSITE: http://weather.noaa.gov/akq

· All fire weather or related products can be accessed by clicking on the “Fire Weather” link from this website.

· The Fire Weather Operations Plan can be accessed from the Wakefield NWS website: http://weather.noaa.gov/akq/firewx

See APPENDIX_C for surrounding office information.

The Daily Fire Weather Forecast area correlates with the “radar coverage area@ of the WSR 88-D Doppler Radar. The forecastable zones, incorporated in the Daily Fire Weather Forecast as well as the Fire Weather Watch and Red Flag Warning products, mirror the Political County and Independent City jurisdictions, rather than the larger USDA Forest Service regional fire weather zones.

The following is a list of the USDA Forest Service Regional Zone Layouts, which fall with in Wakefield=s area:

Virginia

§ Zone 1 - Virginia Portion of the Delmarva Peninsula

§ Zone 2 -The Hampton Roads Area

§ Zone 3 - Southeastern VA

§ Zone 4 - The VA Northern and Middle Necks

§ Zone 6 - Richmond and the Tri-cities region.

§ Zone 7 - South Central VA

§ Zone 17 - The Fredricksburg region (Only Caroline County)

§ Zone 18 - Central VA (West of Richmond)

Maryland

§ Zone 1 - Southern Section of Maryland on the Delmarva Peninsula including the Maryland Eastern Shores.

North Carolina

§ Zone 2 – Northeastern North Carolina Coastal Area

§ Zone 3 – Northeastern North Carolina Coastal Plain

The following is a list of County and Independent City Jurisdictions which will fall within Wakefield=s area of responsibility after the transition.

Virginia
County	Zone #	County	Zone #
Accomack	VAZ099	Lunenburg	VAZ066
Amelia	VAZ068	Mathews	VAZ086
Brunswick	VAZ079	Mecklenburg	VAZ065
Caroline	VAZ064	Middlesex	VAZ085
Charles City	VAZ082	New Kent	VAZ083
Chesapeake	VAZ097	Newport News	VAZ094
Chesterfield	VAZ070	Norfolk	VAZ095
Colonial Heights	VAZ070	Northampton	VAZ100
Cumberland	VAZ061	Northumberland	VAZ077
Dinwiddie	VAZ080	Nottoway	VAZ067
Emporia	VAZ087	Petersburg	VAZ081
Essex	VAZ074	Poquoson	VAZ091
Fluvanna	VAZ048	Portsmouth	VAZ095
Franklin	VAZ092	Powhatan	VAZ069
Gloucester	VAZ084	Prince Edward	VAZ060
Goochland	VAZ062	Prince George	VAZ081
Greenville	VAZ087	Richmond County	VAZ076
Hampton	VAZ094	Richmond (City)	VAZ070
Hanover	VAZ063	Southampton	VAZ092
Henrico	VAZ071	Suffolk	VAZ096
Hopewell	VAZ081	Surry	VAZ089
Isle of Wight	VAZ093	Sussex	VAZ088
James City	VAZ090	Virginia Beach	VAZ098
King and Queen	VAZ073	Westmoreland	VAZ075
King William	VAZ072	Williamsburg	VAZ090
Lancaster	VAZ078	York	VAZ091
Louisa	VAZ049

North Carolina
County	Zone #	County	Zone #
Bertie	NCZ030	Gates	NCZ014
Camden	NCZ016	Hertford	NCZ013
Chowan	NCZ031	Northampton	NCZ012
Western Currituck	NCZ017	Pasquotank	NCZ015
Eastern Currituck	NCZ102	Perquimans	NCZ032

Maryland
County	Zone #	County	Zone #
Dorchester	MDZ021	Wicomico	MDZ022
Maryland Beaches	MDZ025	Worcester	MDZ024
Somerset	MDZ023

Refer To APPENDIX_D for a Map Display of Wakefield County Zone Forecast Area.

The following is a list of the US Fish and Wildlife Refuges within NWS Wakefield’s forecast region:

§ James River NWR - Prince George County, VA

§ Great Dismal Swamp NWR – Suffolk and Chesapeake VA as well as Gates, Camden and Pasquotank counties NC

§ Back Bay NWR – Virginia Beach, VA

§ Eastern Shore of Virginia NWR – Northampton County, VA

§ Chincoteague NWR – Accomack County, VA

§ Blackwater NWR – Dorchester County, MD

The Daily Fire Weather forecast as well as spot forecasts are available year round for suppression and fire control. During the spring through fall (March 1 through November 30), there will be two scheduled fire weather forecasts each day: one during the early morning (5:00 - 6:30 am) and the other in the afternoon (3:30 - 4:15 pm). The afternoon version was added in 2002. During the winter months (December 1 through Feb 28), the fire weather forecast in the afternoon will be suspended, however the morning issuance will continue as scheduled. The exception would be during abnormally high fire danger conditions, in which the users may request an afternoon fire weather forecast during the winter months. In the spring and fall, a heightened threat for a fire activity tends to occur. During these predetermined seasons, the user agencies may request an increased amount of fire weather forecasts than during the off seasons. The user agencies have agreed upon the following as the fire weather seasons:

In Virginia

1. Spring Season: February 15 through May 15

2. Fall Season: October 15 through December 15

In Maryland

1. Spring Season for 2002: February 15 through May 15

2. Fall Season for 2001: September 15 through December 15

In North Carolina

1. Spring Season: March 1 through May 31

2. Fall Season: Late September through the 1^st of December

Unless otherwise specified, forecasts are made to reflect the worst probable weather in terms of fire management, within the fire weather zone during a given time period. For instance, the daytime forecast will attempt to depict the hottest, driest, and windiest weather that is likely to be experienced in the wildland environment of a zone from 7 AM to 7 PM local standard or daylight time. On occasion, this may be different than the general public forecast, which emphasizes prevailing conditions during the forecast period and is often aimed at the more populated areas in a given region.

Though the routine forecast attempts to depict a worst-case fire weather scenario for a given period, it in no way reflects all the local variations in weather that can have an adverse effect on fire behavior within a zone. Fire Control Officers should be familiar with typical weather variations across their district or forest, such as those associated with land versus sea interaction, changes in elevation, and vegetation. The impact of seabreezes or mountain/ valley winds should also be recognized. A spot forecast should be requested whenever local effects are suspected of creating difficult fire management conditions.

Red Flag conditions indicate a potential for severe fire danger and wildfires. In Virginia, Fire Control Managers have determined that the greatest weather threat to operations is the passage of a dry cold front. Dry cold fronts typically cause lower humidity levels and produce shifting and increasing winds. Our users have agreed upon the following conditions for Red Flag Criteria:

In Virginia

10 hour fuel moistures at or below 7% **

and

Sustained winds of 35+ mph.

Sustained Surface winds of 25 mph, Relative humidity less than 30 %, and 10 hour fuel moistures at or below 7%**

**VICC will supply the Fuel Moisture information. Thus if critical meteorological conditions noted above are expected, a coordination call will be placed to the VICC (Virginia Interagency Coordination Center) before a watch or warning is issued.

In Maryland

10 hour fuel moistures at or below 10% ***

and

Sustained surface winds of 25 mph

and

Relative Humidity less than 30%

***Maryland DNR will supply the Fuel moisture information. When critical meteorological conditions highlighted above are expected, a coordination call will be placed to the Eastern Region Maryland DNR.

In North Carolina

Relative Humidity of 25 percent or less

and

Sustained Winds of 20 mph and/or gusts to 30 mph or greater

and

Critical Fuel moistures – 10 hour fuel moisture less than 10%

If the first two criteria are met, the fire weather forecaster will consult with either the US Forest Service in North Carolina or the NC Forest Service before issuing the watch or warning.

A Fire Weather Watch may be issued between 12 and 72 hours in advance of the expected onset of the conditions. A watch will remain in effect until the forecaster determines that either the Red Flag Event will not develop or that the Watch should be upgraded to a Warning.

A Red Flag Warning will be issued for impending Red Flag conditions or immediately when Red Flag conditions are occurring. The warning period is less than 24 hours. For North Carolina Zones the Red Flag Warning may or may not incorporate a Blow-Up alert (see below).

A Blow Up Alert will be issued by the North Carolina State Division of Forest Resources whenever existing high fire danger is coupled with specific meteorological conditions. Those conditions are the following: 1) sufficient fuels are available as denoted by a high Build –Up Index, 2) dangerous fine fuel moistures which are prompted by low relative humidities, 3) atmospheric instability, and 4) an adverse wind profile is observed or imminent.

A Blow-Up Alert underscores the potential for explosive fire conditions in all or part of the state. Once the alert has been issued it will remain in effect until one full day after the last adverse wind profile has been detected, precipitation occurs, or a significant change in the weather pattern occurs.

When a Red Flag Warning or Fire Weather Watch is issued, a headline will be placed in the Daily Fire Weather Forecast. In addition a Red Flag Warning/ Fire Weather Watch product will be issued (see below).

The Red Flag Warning/Fire Weather Watch (WBCRFWAKQ) product is the formal notification for the issuance of a Red Flag Warning or Fire Weather Watch. This product lists the zones included in the Watch and/or Warning as well as gives description of the timing and conditions, which can be expected. This product will also be used to cancel a Watch or Warning. Refer to APPENDIX_E for an example.

The Routine Fire Weather Forecast (FWF)

The two Daily Fire Weather Forecasts are general forecasts which are used for the day-to-day planning of land management operation, and for determining general weather trends that might impact fire behavior. The Daily Fire Weather Forecasts provide a detailed prediction of elements for three specific time periods (four periods with the afternoon forecast), a general 3 to 7 day forecast, and an 8 to 14 day extended outlook for a zone. The morning forecast, to be disseminated NLT 6:30 AM, consists of three periods: “Today” (valid from issuance through 7 PM local time), “Tonight” (7 PM to 7 AM)”, and “Tomorrow” (7 AM to 7 PM). The afternoon version, to be sent NLT 4:00 pm, consists of four periods: “Tonight” (valid from issuance through 7 AM local time), “Tomorrow” (7 AM to 7 PM), “Tomorrow Night” (7 PM to 7 AM), and the “Following Day” (7 AM to 7 PM). Should an evening group be placed in the forecast, it will refer to the period from 5 PM to 10 PM LST.

Weather Parameters included in the Daily Fire Weather Forecast

· Cloud Cover – This is an indication of the sky condition such as Partly Cloudy.

· Chance of Precipitation (POP) - The probability of measurable precipitation (0.01 inches or more) during the forecast period. This will be rounded to the nearest 10%. Note: Drizzle and snow flurries are not considered measurable precipitation and thus will not be given a probability.

· Precipitation Type – A description of the type of precipitation that can be expected such as Rain, Thunderstorms, Snow, etc.

· Temperature – The free air dry-bulb temperature as measured at a standard 4.5 ft above the ground level.

Nighttime periods – minimum temperature forecast

Daytime periods – maximum temperature forecast

· Surface Winds (AM/PM Speed and Direction) – Surface wind speed and direction represent a one-minute average at 20 feet above the ground or 20 ft above the vegetative cover. Wind gusts, which are rapid fluctuations in wind speed of usually less than 30 seconds in duration, are indicated in the forecast if gustiness is expected. Forecasts for highest probable gusts will be preceded by G. Highlights will be made to changes in direction and speed over the state.

· Precipitation Amount – The amount is forecast when the Precipitation Duration is forecasted. Amounts will be given to the nearest hundredth of an inch (only forecast when the probability of measurable precipitation is 50% or greater).

· Precipitation Duration – Forecast when the probability of measurable precipitation is greater than or equal to 50%. It is an estimated amount of rain (or the liquid equivalent of frozen precipitation) and duration will be included in the forecast. This will be estimated in hours. The forecast will indicate single numbers or a range depending on the weather situation. A range of 0-1 indicates a duration forecast of one hour or less.

· Relative Humidity – Humidity is computed in percent at the standard level of 4.5 feet above the ground for a given fire weather zone.

Nighttime periods – maximum relative humidity forecast

Daytime periods – minimum relative humidity forecast

Note: The lowest average humidity typically occurs during the warmest part of the day. However if it is expected to occur at a different time of day, this will be noted in the “Remarks” portion of the forecast.

· Haines Index – This Index infers the stability of the atmosphere. For Wakefield’s area, which is considered a "low elevation", it is calculated by comparing the atmospheric temperature at 950mb and 850mb as well as taking into account the moisture levels (dewpoint depression) at 950mb.

Values of: 2 or 3 indicate a very low potential for fire growth*.

4 indicates a low potential potential for fire growth*.

5 indicates a moderate potential for fire growth*.

6 Indicates a high potential for large fire growth*.

* On the National Level, Haines Index values of 5 or 6 can serve as an alert that fires (prescribed burns) may get out of control. However, regional studies have shown that for some areas, like North Carolina, a Haines Index of 4 represents a relatively high potential for fire growth. Another note: in the absence of strong winds, fire growth will be primarily "plume dominated" with crowning and spotting on all sides. When wind speeds become greater than 20 mph, a higher Haines Index would represent an increased threat for wind-driven wildfires.

· LAL (Lightning Frequency Level) – A number value, which is used to describe the expected convective development for that day. Refer to APPENDIX_F3 further detail of the LAL.

· Mixing Height/Disp. – Mixing height is defined as the atmospheric limit above which vigorous vertical mixing does not take place. The mixing height gives the potential for the atmosphere to disperse smoke. In general, with a forecast mixing height of 500 m (1640 ft) or less, the fire control officer should consider moving a scheduled prescribed burn to a different day or consult the Forecast office. Upper air sounding data is available between 8 AM and 9 AM EST, and can provide a better indication of mixing height than the daily fire weather forecast. Forecast mixing heights will be a maximum value for the day in feet. This value is also adjusted for the general terrain elevation. (To convert mixing heights from feet to meters, multiply by 0.305.)

Dispersion Descriptor – Smoke dispersion gives a general indication of the state of the atmosphere with respect to its ability to disperse smoke from controlled/ prescribed fire operations. These predictions are based on broad scale weather patterns and are generally for large geographical areas. A spot forecast is recommended for critical operations that might involve smoke drift towards a populated area.

A Smoke dispersion outlook will be included in the nighttime forecasts in lieu of the mixing height. See APPENDIX_F2 for the Nighttime Dispersion Categories.

Note: When widespread precipitation and high relative humidities are expected to occur during the forecast period, no dispersion forecasts will be issued for that period.

· Transport Winds (Direction and Speed) – Defined as the average wind direction and speed from the surface to the top of the mixing layer. Direction of the transport wind (where the wind is blowing from) and speed will be given. The speed is given in miles an hour. To convert a wind speed from miles per hour to meters per second, multiply it by 590.8.

· Ventilation – A multiplication of the mixing heights and transport winds. Refer to APPENDIX_F4 for a correlation between the Ventilation and the Burn Category

· Adverse Wind Speed Profiles and Stability (North Carolina Zones only, for the morning FWF only, and for the first period (“Today”) forecast only) - Among the North Carolina users, it is recognized that the profile of wind speed with altitude on active fire days is an important factor in fire behavior. Certain profiles of wind speed marked by decreasing speed above a wind maximum or jet within 1500 ft of the surface can cause fires to behave erratically when combined with a rapid decrease in air temperature with altitude on the order of 5.5 deg. F per 1000 ft. This is a common occurrence on sunny afternoons. APPENDIX_G1 contains these types of profiles that contribute toward adverse fire behavior.

During the spring season, on days in which fire activity is expected to be at or above normal, an analysis of the wind will be included in the Daily Fire Weather Forecast. This analysis will state whether the profile is Favorable or Unfavorable for fire control. Refer to APPENDIX_G2 for Definitions of the Wind profiles. If unfavorable, a profile type from APPENDIX_G1 will be used to describe the wind profile along with detailed information on maximum wind speed, direction, and height AGL. Headlines and special Fire Weather Updates may also be used to highlight this phenomenon.

· Note: A change to the forecast is that the Burn Category for North Carolina Zones is no loner included in the forecast. For Reference, the Burn Category is a product of the forecast maximum afternoon mixing height (in ft above ground level) and average transport wind (in MPH). See APPENDIX F1 for the Daytime Burn Categories.

Note: At this time the Smoke Dispersion Index is not included in the forecast. However it is expected to be included in the future. This is numerical index that was developed by Lavdas. This index takes into account the stability of the atmosphere through the K Index, Cloud Cover, ceiling heights and ventilation Rate. Refer to APPENDIX_F5 for a chart.

Format Of the Daily Fire Weather Forecast

The Daily Fire Weather Forecast is in a tabular layout that follows the general format listed below:

1. Headline – This will highlight Red Flag Warning/Fire Weather Watch or emphasize a significant event or change.

2. Synopsis – This is a brief description of weather systems affecting the area through the forecast period. The movement of significant weather features, such as strong, dry -cold fronts should be highlighted in this section.

3. General Forecast broken into County/Independent City groupings will include Headline (if a Watch or Warning is in effect), Cloud Amount, POP, Precipitation Type, Temperature, Wind Direction, Wind Speed, Precipitation Amount, Precipitation Duration, Lightning Frequency, Relative Humidity, Mixing Height/Disp., Haines Index, Transport Winds (Direction and Speed), Ventilation, Burn-Off Temperature, and Adverse Wind Speed Profiles and Stability (Spring Season only for NC users).

4. Three to Seven day forecast

5. Three to Five Day wind forecast

6. Eight to 14 day outlook

See APPENDIX_H for an example.

Update Criteria for the Daily Forecast

The Fire Weather Forecaster will maintain a weather watch to ensure that the forecast remains accurate. When unexpected changes occur or are forecast to occur which significantly deviate from the previous forecast, the forecast will be updated. The decision to update, to an extent, is at forecaster discretion. However for the critical elements of relative humidity, wind velocity and wind profile, the forecast will be updated by the following guidelines.

Relative Humidity

· for 40% or less - plus or minus 5%

· for 40 % to 70% - plus or minus 10%

· above 70% - plus or minus 15%

Wind Velocity

· Any speed – plus or minus 5 mph

· Any direction - plus or minus 45 degrees

Wind Profile (North Carolina Zones Only) – If a Questionable wind profile is forecast, an update will be issued once the actual profile can be reevaluated for a Favorable or Unfavorable profile. This may be done using the Doppler 88-D wind information or the 12Z soundings.

Other elements that the forecaster may update include: timing of the cold front, passage of a squall line, probability of precipitation and accumulation amount.

If an update is needed, for Virginia counties, the forecaster will call VICC and in North Carolina, NC Forest Service.

Fire Weather Spot Forecasts

Site-specific (spot) forecasts are to be issued by WFO Wakefield in support of a) wildfire suppression and/or b) natural resource management (such as a control burn). These forecasts aid the land management and fire control agencies in protecting life and property during wildland fires, hazardous fuels reduction, and rehabilitation and restoration of natural resources. Spot forecasts may also be issued for hazardous materials incidents and other threats to public safety.

Issuance Guidelines

Creation Software "NWS Spot" is the national standard for requesting and issuing spot weather forecasts and should be used whenever possible. In times when internet access is hindered or not possible, spot forecasts may be requested and disseminated through another mutually agreed-upon method. Reminder: If spot forecasts are issued outside of AWIPS (NWS Spot), then WFO Wakefield is required to retain a copy for 5 years (per NWS Instruction 10-2003, Records Retention).
Issuance Criteria Site-specific (spot) forecasts are non-routine products issued at the request of the user. WFO Wakefield will provide spot forecast service upon request of any federal, state, tribal, or local official who represents the spot forecast is required to support a wildfire.

For non-wildfire purposes, resources permitting, WFO Wakefield will provide spot forecast service under the following circumstances and conditions:

Upon request of any federal agency (such as the US Forest Service).
Upon request of any state, tribal, or local official who represents that the spot forecast is required to carry out their wildland fire management responsibilities in coordination with any federal land management agency participating in the Interagency Agreement for Meteorological Services (NWS Instruction 10-406).
Upon request of any public safety official(s) who represents the spot forecast is essential to public safety, e.g. due to the proximity of population centers or critical infrastructure. (Threats to public safety include wildfires and hazardous material releases)

WFO Wakefield will not provide spot forecasts to private citizens or commerical entities not acting as an agent of a government agency.

The procedures for agencies requesting a spot forecast are outlined in NWS D1 (D1form).The response time for a prescribed burn spot forecast may be delayed due to higher priority duty of the NWS forecaster. In addition to any or all of the forecast parameters listed in the Daily Fire Weather Forecast Product, the Spot Forecast may include inversion hieght, inversion onset, and burn-off times as well as wind profile information.

Procedures for a Spot Forecast

The request for a spot forecast will be received either from the "Spot" program from NWS Wakefield's webpage (http://weather.noaa.gov/akq), or by phone. The following information must be obtained from the user agency, in order to provide a forecast:

1. Requesting agency

2. Time and date of the request

3. Contact person and phone number

4. Location and time of the burn

5. Time duration of the forecast (sometimes they may only need a forecast which spans a few hours; however, in wildfire situations they will likely ask for a 3 to 4 period forecast.)

6. Size of the project

7. Fuel type

8. Specific weather parameters: temperature, humidity, or wet bulb temperature, and wind speed and direction (one-minute average).

9. Finally, the person(s) making the request should provide a current site observation including temperature, wind, and humidity.

Information included in the Spot Forecast

In addition to any or all of the forecast parameters listed in the Daily Fire Weather Forecast Product, the Spot Forecast may include inversion height, inversion onset and burn off times as well as wind profile information. Try to be as specific as possible and take into account river, bay or sea breezes as well as any potential wind boundaries due to differential daytime heating or convection. Do your best at estimating times for onset of these phenomena as well as start and stop times of precipitation activity. Also if a cold front is expected to move across the area give them a time estimate of when they can expect it to push through.

FWM Forecasts are site specific/or trend forecasts for a fire weather observation site/group of sites. The forecasts are for 18Z or 1300 EST (1400 EDT) for the next day. These forecasts are entered in the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) and are used to calculate the predicted fire danger indices for the next day. Refer to APPENDIX_J for a sample spot forecast.

In order for the NWS to do a forecast, the current 1300 EST (1400 EDT) observation must be edited in WIMS to ensure that the observation is included in the Eastern Region Collective. If the current observation is not in the Collective, than a forecast will not be done for that station. * For those locations receiving a FWM forecast, If you do perform the manual edit, but do not receive a forecast for that day, contact the NWS.

Types of an FWM Forecast

1. Point Forecasts – forecast for an individual NFDRS observation point.

2. Trend Forecast – Forecast an average trend of a group of observation points within a district or zone.

(Note: Until trends can be ascertained between the various fire weather observation sites, AKQ will only do Point Forecasts.)

Parameters Included In the FWM Forecast

· Point Forecasts

1. (WX) State of Weather (1300 LST Next Day)

2. (T) Temperature (1300 LST Next Day)

3. (RH) Relative Humidity (1300 LST Next Day)

4. (AL) LAL (1400 LST – 2300 LST That Day)

5. (TL) LAL (2300 LST – 2300 LST Next Day)

6. Wind Direction (1300 LST Next Day)

7. Wind Speed (1300 LST Next Day)

8. Max Temperature (Next Day)

9. Min Temperature (Next Day)

10. Max RH (Next Day)

11. Min RH (Next Day)

12. (PD1) Precipitation (1400 LST – 0500 LST)

13. (PD2) Precipitation (0500 LST – 1400 LST)

14. Wed Flag – a “Y” or “N” response. Refers to the wetness of fuels at the Next day observation time. A “Y” indicates that the fuels will definitely be wet at the 1300 LST observation.

· Trend Forecasts

1. (WX) (Same as Point Forecast)

2. T (24 hour temp change in Deg F (+ or -)

3. H (24 hour RH change in percent (+ or -)

4. AL (Same as Point Forecast)

5. TL (Same as Point Forecast)

6. WS (24 hours wind speed change in mph (+ or -)

7. PD1 (Same as Point Forecast)

8. PD2 (Same as Point Forecast)

9. Wet Flag (Same as Point Forecast)

National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)

Graphical Forecasts of (among other parameters) sky condition, temperatures, dewpoint temperatures, relative humidity, winds, and precipitation are prepared for the general public and can be accessed from the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) web page. Refer to the following example (just click on region of interest from map): NDFD

Area Forecast Matrices (AFM)

Digital forecasts of temperatures, dewpoint temperatures, relative humidity, winds, sky condition, and precipitation. The AFM replaced the RDF in 2003. Refer to the following example: WBCAFMAKQ

Public Zone Forecasts (ZFP)

Written forecasts for sky condition, temperatures, winds and precipitation are prepared for the general public and are grouped by county jurisdictions. For the most part, the forecasts in the public zones will be similar to the information in the Daily Fire Weather Forecast. The public zone forecast includes a detailed 48-hour forecast and a more general 3 to 7 day forecast. Refer to the following example: WBCZFPAKQ

Special Weather Statements (SPS)

Special Weather Statements are focused for the public interests; however fire weather users may find the information presented in this product useful for planning purposes. Special Weather Statements discuss significant weather events that are occurring or are expected to occur during the forecast period. These statements can provide more detail about various types of weather as well as any watches or advisories that may significantly impact fire weather operations. The issuance of a Special Weather Statement is at the forecaster’s discretion.

Wind Advisory and High Wind Warning (NPW)

When windy conditions are expected in the absence of convective weather, a Wind Advisory or High Wind Warning will be issued. These products are also geared for the public, but the conditions forecasted will still have an impact on fire weather operations. Typically, the conditions that warrant the issuance of either one of these products occurs during the winter and spring months, after a passage of a strong cold front.

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained wind speeds of 31 to 39 mph (27 to 34 knots) are expected to occur for longer than an hour, or when wind gusts between 46 and 57 mph (40 to 49 knots) are forecasted for any duration.

A High Wind Warning is issued when sustained wind speeds of 40 mph (35 knots) or greater are expected for a duration of an hour or more, or for winds of 58 mph (50 knots) of any duration.

Short Term Forecasts (NOW)

Short Term Forecasts are issued by the NWS as needed. These brief forecasts give more detail to the public zone forecast, such as the location and movement of a thunderstorm.

Public Information Statement (PNS)

This product can be used to heighten the public’s awareness of an upcoming weather event.

As per agreement between the NWS Wakefield and the VICC (Virginia Interagency Coordination Center), if during a prolonged dry period, conditions warrant the need to heighten the public’s awareness for fire danger, NWS Wakefield will issue a PNS highlighting the area of concern and recommended precautions. This statement will only be issued at the request of VICC.

Special meteorological services are these requiring a meteorologist to be away from the Forecast Office and /or in non-emergency situations, to be on overtime. Special services include the Advanced Meteorological Unit Transportable Mobile Unit (ATMU) and an Incident Meteorologist (IMET) as well as other on-site meteorological services, such as weather observer training, weather station visitations and training requested by other user agencies.

User agencies are responsible for paying overtime, travel and per diem cost for special services. Costs to be recovered from the user are calculated on the basis of expense reports submitted by the Forecast Office to NWS Eastern Region Headquarters. Billing of the user agencies is handled by the appropriate NWS administrative division based on the expense report. Bills include a statement of services rendered, as well as the dates and locations of services provided.

Costs for special services pertaining to interagency training (i.e. ATMU) should be handled by cooperative agreement among the agencies involved with the specific training objective.

Air Transportable Mobile Unit

The ATMU is a modularized, mobile system of equipment used by an IMET for data collection and product preparation. The ATMU is a national resource. Twenty-five ATMU’s are cached across the country, mainly in the Western US. The CASHE site that supports North Carolina and Virginia is in London, KY, where 2 ATMU units are maintained. The CASHE site in Grand Rapids, MI supports Maryland. The ATMU is available upon request for duty at an incident fire, a critical prescribed burn, or other weather-sensitive incident in Virginia, Maryland or North Carolina.

Each ATMU consists of two (2) modules. The first module contains a theodolite with tripod and a calculator for determining the winds aloft, 2 belt weather kits, weather balloons, a nozzle and regulator for a helium tank, office supplies and miscellaneous expendables. It is 27.6 cubic feet and weighs 201 pounds. The second module, know as the computer module, contains a laptop computer with a satellite docking station and satellite dish for downlinking weather data and a printer. It is 5 cubic feet and weighs 55 pounds. A separate module, the microREMS, is a self-contained portable weather station with instruments for measuring temperature, dew point and wind. The microREMS is powered by a solar panel and battery; it is 8.2 cubic feet and weighs about 125 pounds.

For Agencies in North Carolina and Virginia, requests for an ATMU, microREMS, and IMET should be made through the US Forest Service Region 8 Dispatch. For Maryland Users, the Requests should be routed through the US Forest Service Region 9. The Fire Weather Program Leader or the Meteorologist-in-Charge at the Wakefield Forecast Office should be made aware of the need for these services. Typically, an IMET nearest to the incident will be deployed. (Note: Presently, the Wakefield Office does not have a certified IMET on site. Thus, the IMET would likely come from one of the surrounding offices. The USDA FS Regions should have a list of available and certified IMET’s.) Also, during times of limited resources, the IMET may come from another area of the country.

Individuals making the requests should provide the following information:

1. Name of the fire or incident

2. Location of the fire or incident

3. Directions to the place where the meteorologist is to report

4. Name of the Incident Commander (IC) and the Fire Behavior Analysts (FBA) or Planning Section Chief (PSC)

The requesting agency is responsible for coordinating transportation of the ATMU and meteorologist to and from the incident. The requesting agency is also responsible for any storage of the unit while in transit, shelter for the IMET and unit at the site, provisions for priority telephone access during certain short periods each day, 120V AC electrical power, and making space for the helium tank. A sheltered work area must be provided and be protected from excessive dust, and heated or cooled sufficiently to allow the equipment to function effectively. The area needed is approximately 50 square feet in size and must be free from standing water or condensation. A chair and table are also required.

Upon arrival at the incident, the IMET meteorologist will:

1. Based on information from the initial contact with the Forecast Office, brief the FBA, PSC and IC on the current and expected weather as it pertains to the fire.

2. Establish a schedule with the IC and FBA for written forecasts and formal briefings.

3. Request a briefing of the fire situation and potential behavior problems from the FBA. As time and resources permit, incident management should arrange for an areal inspection trip for the meteorologist, and should make sure current fireline maps are provided to him/her. If possible, the meteorologist should be assigned a radio with a fireline frequency.

4. In cooperation with the FBA and PSC, the meteorologist will arrange for a schedule of observations from key points around the fire and from nearby lookouts and fire danger rating stations. On large incident fires, and some personnel (at least two) should be permanently assigned to this duty. On smaller fires, this information is provided by Division supervisors equipped with belt weather kits.

Fire Weather Training

NWS Fire Weather Meteorologists are available to assist fire control agencies with training at fire behavior school and other weather related courses. Travel costs and any necessary overtime are paid for by the User agency. Requests for assistance should be forwarded to the Meteorologist–in–Charge at the NWS Wakefield Forecast Office by written letter.

Other Special Services

Other Special Services include weather station visitations requested by user agencies, weather observer training, and course development work. These activities would typically be conducted at user agency facilities.

Fire Weather Observation Stations

Fire weather observation stations provide specialized weather observations for fire weather forecasts, wildfire control suppression, and various other land management operations. These stations may be either manned sites operated by fire control agencies, or unmanned stations such as RAWS (Remote Automatic Weather Station). All observation stations are assigned a 6-digit identifier. The first two digits indicate the state (10 for Maryland, 44 for Virginia and 31 for North Carolina). The second two indicate the county where the station is located. The last two digits are assigned consecutively with each new station that comes online. The NWS Wakefield Fire Weather Program Leader should be contacted for assignment of the 6-digit identification number to stations within Wakefield’s forecast area. Observation times are normally 1300 EST (1400 EDT) for manned sites.

Quality Control, Inspection and Training

The Fire Weather Program is a cooperative effort between the National Weather Service and federal, state, local, and private control interests involved in the management of timber and grassland. Wildfires pose a serious threat to these lands. Accurate and timely weather information is one of the most important tools available to the land manager.

Observations are the most important single effort the control agencies put into the Fire Weather Program. Potential fire danger is derived from these observations. The Fire Danger Rating System is the guidance tool that, together with the weather forecast, is used to make a variety of management decisions. It is important that observers be well trained and informed of the necessity for accurate, timely, and representative observations. The fire control agencies are responsible for training, inspection, and quality control of observational sites and data at their stations. The NWS Fire Weather Meteorologist will assist when requested and when resources are available.

Transmission of Fire Weather Observations

Fire control agencies should transmit their Fire Weather Observations as soon as possible using normal communications links. For the US Forest Service, National Park Service and the US Fish and Wildlife Service, transmission is usually done via WIMS (Weather Information Management System). The North Carolina State Division of Forest Resources normally transmits the observation via an IBM-PC network. The Maryland Department of Natural Resources uses an FTS network to access the observations.

Fire Weather Station Supplies and Equipment Maintenance

Anemometer oil, hygrothermograph charts, psychometric wicking, ink, and other supplies needed for taking observations should be provided by the fire control agency. The National Weather Service can furnish selected forms and relative humidity tables.

The fire control agency is responsible for providing normal periodic maintenance of all equipment at their fire weather stations.

Severe Weather Reports

Severe weather reports are extremely important and helpful to forecasters at the National Weather Service. Our most important responsibility is to warn the public of impending weather hazards. Very little information is available from remote locations in Maryland, North Carolina, and Virginia. Typically, these areas coincide with the areas of concern by land management and fire control agencies.

If severe weather is occurring, please relay the information immediately to the National Weather Service forecasters so they can promptly warn the general public. Call in reports toll free to the Wakefield Forecast Office at 1-800-737-8624. This number is unlisted and for severe weather reporting only.

The National Service will gladly provide free training about severe weather to individuals interested in helping us with this task. The group of people the NWS trains to report severe weather is known as SKYWARN.

What to report:

· Tornadoes, Funnel Clouds and Waterspouts

· Winds over 55 mph and/or wind damage

· Wind damage includes large limbs and branches down, 1 or more trees downed, as well as any structural damage to buildings.

· Hail – ¾ of an inch (the size of a dime) or larger

· River flooding or flash flooding of creeks.

· Any ice accumulation

If damage is discovered a couple of days after the storm, the information is still need for verification purposes and for “Storm Data,” a publication issued by the NWS which keeps a historical record by state of severe weather occurrences. The information also allows the forecaster to assess previous storms and improve detection probability and forecast techniques for future events.

The states of North Carolina and Virginia use WIMS (Weather Information Management