FXUS61 KPHI 151456 AAA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1045 AM EDT TUE JUN 15 2004

...UPDATED DISCUSSION...
WE'VE ISSUED AN UPDATE TO THE ZONE FORECASTS SIMPLY TO CLEAN UP THE 
WORDING A BIT.  THE LOW CLOUDS OVER OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN 
COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE DURING THE BALANCE OF THIS MORNING 
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  DEW POINT TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 70 
TO 73 RANGE LATE THIS MORNING IN OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES.  
WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND THE REMNANT BOUNDARIES FROM LAST NIGHT'S 
CONVECTION WE'LL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS START TO DEVELOP 
OVER SOUTHEASTERN PA AROUND 200 PM OR SO.  THE PRECIP SHOULD THEN 
EXPAND TO THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ON 
TO THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

SPC CONTINUES TO KEEP ALL BUT OUR NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES IN THE 
SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS 
EVENING. - IOVINO

...435 AM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...SFC FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP VERY SLOWLY INTO EXTREME 
NWRN FA BY EARLY THIS EVENING, SAG INTO THE NRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS 
OF THE FA TONIGHT AND THEN EITHER DISSIPATE OR RETURN N TMRW AS A 
WARM FRONT. FOR TODAY WE ARE NOT IN THE FAVORED PORTION OF THE UPPER 
JET AS LONG AS IT DOESNT ADVANCE ANY FASTER THAN PROGGED. WE ARE IN 
A FAVORED QUAD THIS EVENING. MID LVL FLOW NOT DIFLUENT AND MID LVL 
RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD FROM THE S, BUT SOUNDINGS BRING A DECENT 
AMOUNT OF INSTAB INTO FA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THERE IS NO 
CAP SUFFICIENT TO SURPRESS CONVECTION. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE, 
AND GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM THE SFC TO H7. SPEED SHEAR AND 
STRENGTH OF LOWER WIND FIELD NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE, AND WB0 VALUES ARE 
PRETTY HIGH, BUT THERE IS ENOUGH TO CARRY SPC SLGT RISK FORECAST FOR 
MUCH OF FA INTO THE PRODUCTS. TRIED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AFTERNOON NRN 
AND CENTRAL ZONES, AND TRIED TO TIME IT A LTL LATER FOR THE SRN 
ZONES. LEFT THE FAR NWRN ZONES DRY TONIGHT POST FROPA, BUT KEPT POPS 
TMRW NIGHT ELSEWHERE AND BEEFED THE WORDING IN THE SRN ZONES, MAINLY 
FOR THE EVENING, AS CAPES AND SHEAR STILL NOT BAD THEN. COLLABORATED 
FOR POPS IN THE S ON WED. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS FCST FROM 
PREV PACKAGE BASED ON LOCAL SCHEME, BUT UPPED THE OVERNIGHT MINS A 
BIT FOR TONIGHT CENTRAL AND S AND TMRW NIGHT MOST OF FA AS WE LOOK 
KIND OF SOUPY. 

&&

.LONG TERM...AFTER WED, WE CONT WITH PREV FCST AS IT LOOKED 
REASONABLE AND FLOODING CONCERNS EARLY THIS MORNING PRECLUDED US 
FROM ANY FINE TUNING. 

&&

.MARINE...WILL MAINTAIN THE SCA (SEAS) FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 
INTRODUCE THE SAME FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS. WAVEWATCH III IS ABOUT 1 
TO 2 FEET UNDERDONE THIS MORNING. SEAS ARE RUNNING 5 TO 6 FEET AT 
BUOY 09 AND 25. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND 
SHOULD HELP SEAS TO RELAX. OTHER THAN TODAY, SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT 
FORECAST.  

AS A REMINDER...BEGINNING AT NOON TODAY JUNE 15, 2004, THE AWIPS 
IDENTIFIER FOR THIS COASTAL WATERS FORECAST WILL CHANGE FROM 
PHLCWFPHL TO PHLCWFPHI. THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION HEADER 
FOR THIS PRODUCT, FZUS51 KPHI, WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. 

&&

.AVIATION...AFTER ABOUT A 24 HOUR PERIOD OF OVCST SKIES, PARTS OF 
THE REGION HAVE CLEARED. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT. FOR THOSE WHO ARE STILL UNDER THE CLOUDS, 
CEILINGS HAVE LOWERED TO IFR LEVELS. CU/STRATOCU SHOULD DEVELOP 
LATER TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE 
TO VFR AS BASES SET UP AROUND 4500 FT. WITH THE MOISTURE AND 
EXPECTED INSTABILITY LATER TODAY, MOIST CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN 
POSSIBLE.  

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE/OCEAN...SCA ANZ450-455.
MARINE/DEL BAY...NONE.

&&

$$

NYY4021/KRUZDLO