Historical documents, archaeological remains, tree rings, and geomorphological data provide evidence for periods of drought in the past 10,000 years that have equaled and far exceeded the severity of the droughts of the 1930's and the 1950's. These proxy climate data demonstrate that the natural variability of climate is truly larger than revealed by the instrumental record and also highlight the likelihood that future droughts more severe than those of the 20th century may occur in the future. Climatologists acknowledge the need for more detailed information about the long-term record of natural drought variability especially where climate and land use practices make regions particularly vulnerable to drought.
The paleoclimatology group at the National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) has teamed up with scientists at the National Climate Data center (NCDC) and researchers at the Lahmont- Doherty Observatory, the University of Arizona and the University of Arkansas to create a new on-line database focused on drought variability in North America. The new internet-accessible database (http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/drought.html) combines the perspective gained from in situ instrumental data with a network of drought records reconstructed from a collection of climatically-sensitive tree ring chronologies.
At present, the drought variability database extends back 300 years and focuses on summer drought as reflected by the Palmer Drought Severity Index. Plans call for extension of the data to add additional centuries-long records and information with a goal to expand the geographic coverage, sample density and record lengths covered.
Effective 1435 UTC, July 23, 1998, the status box on the radar charts (DIFAX slots D054 and D164) containing NCEP operations remarks will be eliminated. These National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operations status boxes routinely appear on 0235 UTC and 1435 UTC national radar summary charts, and appear non-routinely at other times when NCEP experiences production schedule problems. Family of Services subscribers will still receive the NCEP operations alpha numeric text status messages under the header NOUS42 KWBC.
The radar charts will continue the description and movement of radar echoes as before. At times when the radar data appears unreliable or degraded, an abbreviated message will appear on the chart describing the cause.
With combined public service totaling three quarters of a century, Dr. Joe Friday and Dr. Ron McPehrson will retire on the same day: July 2, 1998. The former director of the National Weather Service and the current director of NOAA's Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, Friday will join the National Academy of Science where he will become director of the policy-making Board of Atmospheric Science.
McPherson will retire as director of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. He expects to announce his future plans shortly. Jack Kelly, Assistant Administrator for Weather Services has designated James E. Hoke as acting NCEP director through September 30, 1998. Hoke, currently Director of NCEP's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, will hand his current responsibilities over to Kevin McCarthy.
Should the current search for a permanent NCEP director extend beyond September 30, 1998, Ants Leetma will succeed Hoke as acting director.
In February 1998, NCEP began assimilating GOES sounder data into the ETA model. The net effect was a slow but increasingly significant drying out of the ETA model noted by many operational forecasters. Due to the degradation of the ETA model, NCEP suspended the use of GOES moisture sounding data at the end of April 1998. NCEP and the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS) continue experiments with the Eta Data Assimilation system using a modified version of the three dimensional variational analysis (3DVAR) which has been tuned for incorporation of the preceipitable water measurement from the GOES satellite. Initial results are positive.
The Nation's newest geostationary weather satellite, GOES 10, has successfully completed testing and is ready to replace one of the country's older geostationary satellites (GOES 8/GOES 9) when needed.
Launched on April 25, 1997, GOES 10 is currently stored in a stand by orbit to replace either GOES 8 or 9 when one of them fails. GOES 8 overlooks the east coast and well out into the Atlantic while GOES 9 overlooks the west coast and out into the Pacific including Hawaii. With GOES 10 stored in orbit, satellite imagery would be available within 48 hours of activation.
Undergoing extensive tests by NASA, NOAA, and contract engineers over the last year due to initial scanning problems, GOES 10 was inverted and all systems checked out successfully.
The NEXRAD Operational Support Facility sent a memo out to field locations concerning two recommended parameter changes to the WSR-88D hail algorithm. The first change normalized the reference freezing level height for radars at different elevations. The second change corrected for an over-warning bias during weak summertime convection. In general, implementation of the two new parameters result in a reduction of the probability of severe hail product.
The Nation's smallest commissioned service is being restructured and will get a civilian leader. The NOAA Corps, formerly known as the Coast and Geodetic Survey, operates research ships and planes studying weather and climate, fisheries and mapping the seacoast. The 247 officer service will be downsized to a 240 member service with a civilian in charge. The current commander, rear Admiral William L. Stublefield will remain as the highest ranking uniformed corps member.
The NOAA Corps operates 15 vessels and 14 aircraft that monitor the oceans as well as the atmosphere.
Mariners can now obtain the latest coastal and offshore weather observations through a new telephone service called Dial-A-Buoy. This experimental automated computer system provides wind and wave measurements taken within the last hour at 65 buoy and 54 Coastal-marine stations located in U.S. coastal waters. To access the National Data Buoy System's Dial-A-Buoy, dial 228-668-1948 using a touch tone or cellular phone. Enter the five digit/character station identifier in response to he prompt and you will hear the latest buoy observation via computer generated voice. You can find the location of all National Data Buoy Center observation sites at http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/.
As published in the June 9, 1998, Commerce Business Daily, Dial-A-Buoy is a proof of concept system that seeks involvement from the private sector. The current eight line system could be expanded through sponsorship or a company could offer a similar service at another location. The point of contact at the National Data Buoy Center is David Gilhousen at (228) 688-2840.
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