METEOROLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT LABORATORY

MONTHLY PROGRESS REPORT

APRIL 2001

MAY 1, 2001





SYNOPTIC-SCALE PREDICTION PROJECT (P. Dallavalle)

Statistical Forecast Development (P. Dallavalle):   We've completed development of MRF-based MOS equations to predict the probability of thunderstorms for the spring season out to 7 days in advance. Guidance from the new equations will become avail able on the MRF MOS alphanumeric and BUFR messages during May.

Development of the AVN-based probability of quantitative precipitation amount forecast (PQPF) equations for the warm season has also been completed. We're planning to add the AVN-based PQPF to the AVN MOS alphanumeric message in June.

In collaboration with NCEP's Environmental Modeling Center (EMC), we've been assessing the impact of proposed MRF model changes on the MOS extended-range guidance.

Operations and Software Support (M. Erickson):   We've begun routinely producing binary messages (BUFR) containing the AVN- and MRF-based MOS guidance. These BUFR messages are produced in NCEP's operational process and are distributed on the AWIPS SBN. BUFR messages have been decoded correctly by AWIPS software developers to test the incorporation of the new AVN and MRF MOS guidance into the IFPS process.

MESOSCALE PREDICTION PROJECT (D. Ruth)

Statistical Update Development (J. Ghirardelli):   We completed documenting new software for displaying forecasts and observations. The document is in the standard MOS-2000 format and details how to generate GEMPAK graphics of any data, either gridded or station oriented, that exists in standard TDLPACK format. This software has broad application within MDL.

National Digital Forecast Development (D. Ruth):   We briefed the Operations Committee and Corporate Board on our plans for implementing the Interactive Forecast Preparation System (IFPS) and National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD). Three issues were raised: NDFD resolution, the source of digital forecasts beyond day 2, and public versus private concerns for new NWS products. Each of these issues will be addressed within the next month by IFPS/NDFD working groups.

PRODUCTS GENERATION PROJECT (R. Meiggs)

IFP Product Development and Evolution (M. Peroutka):   MDL developers traveled to the NWS Weather Forecast Office in Tucson, Arizona (TWC) to install a test version of the Interactive Forecast Preparation System (IFPS). This version of IFPS adds a high-speed Pentium host running Linux to the standard AWIPS hardware. The new hardware and software improved the performance of the IFPS significantly, and allowed the site to configure IFPS to use 5-km gridpoint spacing. (The standard AWIPS hardware is configured to use 20-km spacing.) TWC forecasters will work to configure the IFPS and help MDL address issues that are specific to NWS Western Region WFOs.

FORECAST EVALUATION PROJECT (W. Shaffer)

Forecast Verification Analysis (V. Dagostaro):   We developed a prototype system to display certain verification results graphically on the web. The system currently produces scatter plots and histograms for max/min temperature forecasts and observations retrieved from the national verification data. We unveiled the prototype system at an informal meeting with OCWWS and received favorable comments. This system complements OCWWS's "statistics- on-demand" system, which provides customized printed reports.

Verification statistics for March 2001 were provided to OCWWS for max/min temperature, PoP, ceiling height, and visibility. The data files contain verification scores for the local official forecasts and NGM MOS. To provide the field with information regarding the performance of the AVN MOS guidance relative to NGM MOS, we began testing an automated procedure to include AVN MOS results in the verification files provided to OCWWS. We produced a sample data file containing max/min temperature verification statistics. Once some minor problems are resolved, we'll produce similar files for all of the weather elements above. OCWWS is working to include AVN MOS scores in their statistics-on-demand system.

To accommodate more stations and more max/min and PoP forecast periods in the national verification program, we modified soft ware to handle future increases in the amount of data collected. Additional testing of the software is needed. We began coordinating these changes with OCWWS and the AWIPS software developers.

COASTAL MARINE PREDICTION PROJECT (W. Shaffer)

Storm Surge and Wave Forecasting (W. Shaffer):   An experimental version of our extratropical storm surge model has been coded to use NCEP's 22-km Eta model for input. This version will use the Eta Data Assimilation System (EDAS) surface data in 3-hourly intervals during the surge spin-up stage. A comparison of forecast surface winds from the Eta-22 and AVN vs. observations is continuing.

We acquired 3" and 0.5" bathymetry from the University of Hawaii to assist us in testing our combined near shore and wave shoaling wave model in simulations of Hurricane Iniki (1992).

Dr. Shaffer made presentations at the Eastern Region's East Coast Operational Marine Workshop and at the U.S. Army's Corps of Engineers training course for new Hurricane Evacuation Managers.