The primary objective of the Techniques Development Program is to develop analysis and forecast techniques which, when implemented, will help improve forecast accuracy and service to the wide range of users of NWS products. These techniques are implemented on NOAA's computer system, when appropriate, and guidance products disseminated via AFOS, facsimile, or other NWS distribution systems. Techniques are produced for basic weather elements used in public and aviation forecasts, such as temperature and visibility. Also, special emphasis is given to marine-related forecasts and to those forecasts especially associated with mesoscale processes. For many synoptic-scale forecasts, the output of operational numerical models is used to produce forecasts of weather elements of interest to users. When dealing with forecasts of shorter time and space scales, more use is made of data sets rich in information on those scales; for example, hourly and automated surface reports and radar, satellite, and profiler data. For marine-related forecasts, numerical and statistical models relate elements of interest, such as storm surge, to atmospheric analyses and forecasts.

This quarter we continue to be heavily occupied with converting software to the CRAY and the new NCEP data formats. A joint evaluation of the Satellite-derived Cloud Cover product is nearly completed. Verification summaries for the 1995-96 cool season were distributed to the regional Scientific Services Divisions. A CAFTI recommendation for operational implementation of the NGM-based trajectory model is being acted upon. Development continues on the 0-3 h QPF technique, the 1-22 h QPF technique, and the Thunderstorm Identification product. METAR conversion was supported through several AFOS programs. An update of the Savannah/Hilton Head SLOSH basin is being made. AWIPS hydromet applications for Build 1 are essentially complete and integrated into the AWIPS infrastructure. A new build of ICWF was delivered to the NWS forecast offices at Norman, Peachtree City, and Boise. The zone forecast formatter was enhanced to support many features which are common in Western Region products, and a new master menu was implemented.

OBJECTIVE WEATHER PREDICTION PROJECT (P. Dallavalle)

Short-Range Weather Forecasting Task (P. Dallavalle): Efforts to convert our operational and developmental systems from the HDS mainframe to the CRAY platform continue. The MOS forecast program, pre-processor, post-processor, and most codes generating the alphanumeric and BUFR messages from the Nested Grid Model (NGM) were implemented on the CRAY in mid-April. Further enhancements to the post-processor and BUFR software modules have now been made to support the conversion of the NGM-based MOS graphics products. These enhancements are scheduled for implementation during the summer. We are now concentrating our conversion efforts on the establishment of new archives of both observed and model data. 

We have nearly completed an evaluation of using the Satellite-derived Cloud Cover Product (SCP) to complement the ASOS sky cover reports above 12,000 feet. The SCP is produced by the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Services (NESDIS) from two GOES satellites. During the spring of 1996, NESDIS and the NWS conducted a 5-week field test of a GOES-8 imager-based SCP. In cooperation with the NWS Office of Meteorology, we collected the SCP data during the test, prepared a pseudo-ASOS observation from a manned observation site, and then complemented that observation with the satellite report. Our efforts have been described in a paper entitled "Complementing ASOS Cloud Reports with the GOES Satellite Cloud Product" by K. Hughes. This paper will be presented at the 15th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting to be held in Norfolk, Virginia, in August. We also completed another paper to be presented at the same conference, entitled "A Perspective on the Use of Model Output Statistics in Objective Weather Forecasting" by P. Dallavalle.

Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Task (M. Erickson): Work to convert the MRF-based MOS system from the HDS mainframe to the CRAY is moving forward. The codes to produce the MRF MOS forecasts on the CRAY have been converted and submitted for implementation. Efforts to establish an MRF and ensemble archive on the CRAY are continuing.

Two preprint articles related to objective medium-range weather forecasting were prepared for the 15th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting. J. Settelmaier completed an article titled "Evaluating Medium-Range Weather Forecasts: An Analysis of Errors." M. Erickson wrote an article titled "Medium-Range Prediction of PoP and Max/Min in the Era of Ensemble Model Output."

National Verification Processing Task (V. Dagostaro): In support of the AFOS-Era Verification (AEV) program, 1995-96 cool season verification summaries were distributed to the regional Scientific Services Divisions (SSD's). For max/min temperature, PoP, cloud amount, precipitation type, snow amount, and 42-h significant wind speed, we compared the local and NGM-based MOS forecasts for approximately 96 stations in the conterminous U.S. (CONUS) and six stations in Alaska. However, because ASOS cloud amount observations are incomplete and ASOS snow amount observations are unavailable, the verification samples for these two weather elements were significantly smaller than for all other weather elements. By the end of the 1995-96 cool season, ASOS was commissioned at 61 of the 96 AEV sites in the CONUS. In addition, precipitation amount observations were unavailable for the Alaskan stations. For max/min temperature, MOS guidance based on the Aviation (AVN) run of the Global Spectral Model was included in a separate verification comparing the two MOS guidance systems (NGM and AVN) and the local forecasts for stations in the CONUS and Alaska. For PoP, a similar comparative verification was produced for stations in the CONUS.

For the aviation weather elements (i.e., ceiling height, visibility, and wind), local and MOS forecasts are not directly comparable because the forecast valid times generally do not match. Therefore, for ceiling height and visibility, comparative verification results for local forecasts and persistence observations were produced for stations in the CONUS and Alaska. Summaries for wind speed and direction contain local verification results for the same stations. Similarly, for the MOS guidance, ceiling and visibility summaries contain comparative results for the guidance and persistence observations, while wind speed and direction summaries contain only the MOS verification results.

Work to convert and enhance the central data processing software to run on a UNIX-based platform is continuing. We are coordinating with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) to collect AEV data on the CRAY. We are now developing software to process and store the data on the CRAY.

TDL Office Note 96-2, "AFOS-Era Verification of Guidance and Local Aviation/Public Weather Forecasts - No. 22 (April 1994 - September 1994) by V. Dagostaro, P. Dallavalle, and V. Southall was distributed.

Severe Weather Prediction Task (R. Reap): Over 90% of the operational NGM-based three-dimensional trajectory model has been converted to run on the CRAY mainframe under the UNIX operating system. Only two graphics programs remain to be converted. The first program, designed to produce parcel trajectories for display on AFOS, is nearly complete with final testing currently underway. Work will soon start on the second program, which is designed to generate automated convective outlooks of thunderstorms and severe local storms on AFOS. As soon as practical, the new codes will be forwarded to NCEP for implementation on the CRAY mainframe.

Details of the development procedure and verification statistics for a new NGM-based MOS system to predict regions favorable to aircraft icing were presented to the Committee for Analysis and Forecast Techniques Implementation (CAFTI) during the June meeting. A recommendation was made by CAFTI for operational implementation of the forecast equations in the new version of the NGM-based trajectory model to be run on the CRAY. The probability forecasts, described in last quarter's progress report, will be used as guidance by the NCEP Aviation Weather Center's (AWC's) forecasters in issuing operational icing notices for use by the aviation community. The forecasts will be displayed in graphical form on AWC's N-AWIPS system.

LOCAL TECHNIQUES DEVELOPMENT PROJECT (W. Seguin)

0-3 Hour QPF and Severe Weather Task (D. Kitzmiller): We are continuing our work to develop a QPF technique for projections from 0-3 h. Our initial approach is to build on our extrapolative/statistical technique used for 0-1 h forecasts, but unlike the 0-1 hour approach, we intend to develop this capability for any grid box in the U.S. We will use radar-rainfall relationships established between Archive II radar data and the Stage III rainfall data produced by the Tulsa RFC. This algorithm will ultimately rely on a combination of local radar data and data from a national composite grid. Therefore, we began collecting the national 10 km radar composites produced by NCEP for use in the development effort. This archive will complement satellite and numerical model archives which were previously established.

To allow the severe weather algorithms to be automatically run as part of the thunderstorm identification technique, a program was written to obtain updated stability information from NCEP RUC files. This capability is now running on Pathfinder equipment.

TDL Office Note 96-1 on the 0-1 h rainfall prediction algorithm, which was based on radar-based predictands) was printed and distributed.

Thunderstorm Identification and Forecasting Task (S. Smith): Considerable progress was made this quarter in fully implementing the Thunderstorm Identification and Forecasting technique on the AWIPS compatible workstations. Complete conversion to the AWIPS environment awaits the availability of the display and database Applications Program Interfaces (APIs).

The software was completely modularized in order to separate algorithm processing from the display software. The severe weather algorithms for assessing the probability of severe weather and of hail were implemented within the technique. A method for identifying which algorithm decisions led to the thunderstorm threat at airport indicator was also implemented. The graphic display has two pop-up windows, one providing information about thunderstorms in the vicinity of the airport and the other providing information about individual cells. The display was also augmented to draw colored circles around the airport and thunderstorm cells. The circle color is a function of how close a thunderstorm is to the airport.

The program was set up to run operationally on the AWIPS Pathfinder system, automatically ingesting two radar products - the VIL and base reflectivity and the RUC model output. No lightning data are currently available real time.

We began collecting and archiving radar data, lightning data, and model data in preparation for a post analysis following the convective weather season.

We continued our work on the technique to track cloud cells in the infrared satellite imagery. A parallax adjustment limitation was added to the satellite cloud-top minimum temperature determination scheme.

Companion preprint papers were submitted for the 15th AMS Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting. The two titles are: "An Overview of the AWIPS Thunderstorm Product" and "An Automated Technique for Determining Satellite Cloud-top Temperatures for Thunderstorms."

Local AWIPS MOS Program (LAMP) Task (J. Ghirardelli): An extensive effort was put forth this quarter to clean-up LAMP development and back-up files in preparation for the removal of the NAS 9000 series mainframe computers. All remaining probability of precipitation type thresholds were corrected, visibility and obstruction to visibility thresholds were investigated for errors. While giving a LAMP system demonstration, a problem was discovered with SKY forecasts. After investigating, it was discovered that 7 out of 8 warm start times were missing SKY equations for the Great Lakes Region. To correct this, the equations were developed and transferred to run on the AWIPS Government Development Platforms (GDP) by the end of May.

As mentioned, we completed the transfer of equations and thresholds to the GDP and detailed documentation of the process was written. An assembly line process was developed to do this transfer. A substantial effort to transfer all clean-up elements for various start times, and to document the transfer, was undertaken. This task was completed by the end of May 1996.

The operational BUFR MOS file began running operationally on the CRAY on April 16th. We tested it to verify it was identical to the mainframe version.

One of our cooperative education students has undertaken a project to produce maps of LAMP sites versus MOS sites for the contiguous U.S. She has successfully written two programs and produced the map showing where LAMP forecasts are made.

LAMP is running semi-operationally on the GDP equipment, and forecasts are being provided to four forecast sites. UNIX scripts were developed to notify users when the LAMP system failed (usually due to lack of input data) or was rerun successfully.

Heavy Precipitation Forecasting Task (J. Charba): Substantial progress was made this quarter in preparing the LAMP QPF implementation software. In fact, all of the software components and input data sets (including constant data, probability thresholds, and equations) have been implemented, and testing has begun.

During the late winter, we participated in the disaster survey for the severe flooding that occurred in the Pacific Northwest. During this quarter, our responsibility for the assessment report dealing with warning services was completed.

MARINE ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION PROJECT (W. Shaffer)

Hurricane Storm Surge Forecasting Task (W. Shaffer): An update is being made to the Savannah, Georgia/Hilton Head, South Carolina, SLOSH basin. A simulation study for this basin is planned by the National Hurricane Center as soon as it becomes available. The existing basin's grid is being extended inland to better capture the effects of flow up the Savannah River and to eliminate possible reflections from the inland boundary. Updated terrain data, especially from the Hilton Head area, are being incorporated.

A geographic information system (GIS) is being tested with the update of this basin. USGS digital elevation data with a horizontal separation of 30 meters have been obtained to cover the central portion of the grid. Values extracted directly from this databset appear to agree quite well with those manually extracted when the basin was first completed. We are working with The National Ocean Survey to get scanned quadrangle maps for use as a background to check extracted SLOSH grid data.

Extratropical Storm Surge Forecasting (W. Shaffer): We continue to archive the model's output for verification purposes. Tests with sending the model's output directly from NOAA's Cray C90 computers to AFOS are underway.

LOCAL TECHNIQUES DEVELOPMENT PROJECT (D. Ruth)

Field Applications Assistance Task (R. Beasley): Efforts continued right up until July 1 to ready programs and files for the implementation of METAR and TAFs. Four programs (the surface data decoder, the TAF decoder, the aviation forecast monitoring program, and the national verification program) received considerable attention this quarter and to the extent possible, were field tested at METAR/TAF End-to-end field test sites. As a result, problems were discovered and corrected prior to the formal implementation date. We also provided considerable assistance to the field in helping them implement their programs.

The station directory file, used to determine where surface and upper air data get plotted on the map, was revised to accommodate the new four letter station IDs and the renamed stations in the contiguous 48 states and Alaska. T he plot file generator program, PLTGEN, was also updated to work with four-letter ID's.

The ASOS QC program for checking surface observations was updated for METAR observations and provided to seven field test sites. This program will shortly be provided to all field sites. The AFOS program ASOSCOMP continued to receive our attention this quarter.

TDL worked with the Observing Systems Branch and Telecommunications Gateway of the Office of Systems Operations to resolve coding and dissemination problems experienced during the METAR/TAF End-to-End test. Of particular concern were problems with the FAA transmission of METAR observations. TDL provided the Field Systems Branch with daily logs of missing test METAR observations to locate transmission problems.

WFO Application Development Task (D. Ruth): Design, Development, and Testing teams continue to develop and test hydrometeorological (HM) applications for the early builds of AWIPS. This work is being carried out in part by TDL and its application support contractor, GSC, and in part by the AWIPS Prime Contractor, PRC. Efforts this quarter were focused on completing the development and unit testing of the Build 1 HM software. HM Build 1 software includes Grid Processing, Contour Gridded Data, NEXRAD Image and Graphic Overlay Displays, Grid Parameter Derivation, and a stand-alone portion of the WFO Hydrologic Forecast System (WHFS). TDL and PRC are working closely on integrating the HM applications into the Software Integration and Test (SwIT) facility and preparing the applications for the System Integration and Test (SIT) facility as soon as PRC establishes a stable "Alpha" baseline. This includes extensive work in the areas of accessing and storing grid and NEXRAD image data objects, rendering HM data on the screen, and handling log and error messages. Formal HM testing and extensive user testing of the Build 1 HM software integrated into PRC AWIPS Build 1 software is planned to be performed at the SIT facility in July. To support this testing, the developer's are preparing test cases in accordance with the AWIPS Application Test Plan.

Draft AWIPS Application Requirements and Design Documents (RDDs) and the associated manpages for "public" and "private" APIs for Grid Processing, Contour Gridded Data, NEXRAD Image and Graphic Overlay Displays, and Grid Parameter Derivation have been completed and are being reviewed by PRC and the NWS. TDL, OH, and GSC personnel are working on implementing configuration management software (PCMS) purchased for the headquarters GDP to support HM applications development for AWIPS. Associated with this activity is the preparation of an AWIPS Application Version Description Document for Build 1 and a Configuration Management Plan.

Product Generation Task (M. Peroutka): Build 8.0 of the Interactive Computer Worded Forecast (ICWF) completed its beta testing and was delivered to the NWS Forecast Offices in Norman, Oklahoma, and Peachtree City, Georgia. The Zone Forecast formatter was enhanced to support many of the features which are common in these products in the NWS Western Region: A table of temperatures and probabilities of precipitation can be appended to the forecast text, and various weather elements can be omitted from the forecast text. A new program was developed which uses forecasts from station-based digital forecast matrices (DFMs) to generate gridded forecasts. The station-to-gridpoint mapping process is identical to that which is used for MOS initialization. The programs which "unload" gridded forecasts to DFMs were also enhanced to support temperature ranges and rounded probabilities of precipitation.

ICWF Build 8.1 also supports Fire Weather forecast products as part of the Fire Weather Risk Reduction at the NWS Forecast Office in Boise, Idaho (BOI). DFMs of Fire Weather elements are initialized from grids of basic weather elements and selected model soundings. These Fire Weather DFMs can be edited by the forecaster and used to generate products. TDL worked closely with BOI developers as they created programs which generated Fire Weather Narrative and National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) forecasts. TDL developed a program which generates specialized tabular forecasts of Fire Weather elements. A different program was written to generate simple Fire Weather forecasts for the Peachtree City Forecast Office. This product is based on the Agricultural Forecast formatter, and it will be replaced by the more canonical techniques being tested in Boise.

The programs which will generate specialized forecasts to support the Games of the XXVI Olympiad received their "finishing touches." Minor fixes and selected enhancements were made in response to test exercises conducted in Peachtree City this spring.

A test version of the Zone Forecast formatter generated its first local effect phrases. These phrases should be routinely available in the fall. A new program was developed which adds message header information to a product. These data will be used by the NOAA Weather Radio (NWR) Console Replacement System (CRS).

ICWF source code was added to the build tree for the AWIPS Forecast Preparation System (AFPS) in Boulder. FSL developers were able to provide a source of MOS guidance from WFO Advanced. MOS ingest for AFPS will be running on FSL machines this summer. Work also began in earnest to support Dr. Roman Krzysztofowicz and his associates at the University of Virginia in developing techniques to prepare probabilistic QPFs. The statement generator for the ICWF Watch/Warning/Advisory (WWA) system was enhanced to support short-fused WWAs. This work will form the foundation of ICWF Build 9.0 which will be released late this summer. Five abstracts were submitted for the American Meteorological Society's Thirteenth International Conference on Interactive and Information Processing Systems (IIPS) to be held in February 1997. Data files were prepared to generate a set of worded, MOS-based city forecasts for posting here at headquarters.

Interactive Techniques Development Task (D. Ruth): A new version of the ICWF Master Menu went on-line in Boise, Idaho, with Build 8.1 in May. This version provides greater flexibility in controlling the flow of data within the ICWF. Boise forecasters can now initialize ICWF gridfields using edited station forecasts and locally-developed interpolation techniques. The new Master Menu also enables forecasters to direct the flow of forecast data from the gridded database to zone, station, and service-specific editors by setting traffic signals on the screen. Techniques to adjust ETA model forecast grids using MOS station guidance and to update gridfields for all forecast elements based on changes made to zone forecasts were developed.

A special version of the ICWF matrix editor was created to prepare fire weather forecasts. This editor was included in Build 8.1 and will be used during the Fire Weather Risk Reduction in Boise this summer.

Several requested enhancements were made to ICWF displays. A slider bar enables forecasters to adjust threshold elevations used to display topography. The forecaster may now enhance temperature color curves when ranges are small. Also, a feature has been implemented which allows a forecast office to plot site-defined point locations on ICWF grid displays.

Development continued on an aviation forecast editor for delivery in ICWF Build 9.0 this summer. Forecaster-prepared weather elements in the ICWF digital database are updated and enhanced from statistical guidance from the Local AWIPS MOS Program (LAMP). Aviation weather objects are recognized from hourly data and are depicted on a plot of height versus time for graphical editing by the forecaster. TAFs are then generated for the terminals within the forecast office's area of responsibility.

The Watch/Warning/Advisory interface is being enhanced to support tornado, severe thunderstorm, and flash products. Site-configurable "canned" basis statements, polygon selections, and partial counties will be provided. A design review for this technique was conducted in June. It will be implemented in Build 9.0 of the ICWF this summer.