SYNOPTIC-SCALE PREDICTION PROJECT (P. Dallavalle)

Statistical Forecast Development (P. Dallavalle):    Development of cool season MOS equations to predict precipitation amount from the 0600/1800 UTC forecast cycles of the AVN model has been completed. We are planning to implement these equations in late January or early February. Development of warm season equations to predict wind speed and direction from all four forecast cycles of the AVN has also been completed. We expect to implement these equations prior to April 2002.

We've completed development of Eta-based MOS equations to predict wind speed and direction during the warm season. We've also tested an Eta-based MOS system to predict max/min temperature, 2-m temperature, and 2-m dew point at stations in the contiguous United States (CONUS). We found that the Eta-based MOS temperature guidance was generally more accurate than the AVN-based MOS guidance in the western third of the CONUS, but was less accurate than the AVN MOS in the eastern third of the CONUS. In the central third of the CONUS, the Eta MOS temperature guidance was more accurate than the AVN MOS in the warm season, but was less accurate in the cool season. We are currently developing the operational Eta MOS temperature and dew point forecast equations, as well as the warm season probability of precipitation and probability of precipitation amount equations.

Operations and Software Support (M. Erickson): A revised message displaying MOS maxi mum/minimum temperature guidance for sites of interest to the North Central River Forecast Center was implemented. The upgraded message contained both AVN and MRF MOS guidance for more stations and forecast projections than had been available previously.

We continued efforts to expand the number of sites for which AVN and MRF MOS guidance products are available. With the upgrade of the MOS system in January, products will become available for 1383 sites in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. Coordination to issue the additional guidance on AWIPS has been completed. Implementation is scheduled for January 22, 2002.

MESOSCALE PREDICTION PROJECT (D. Ruth)

Statistical Update Development (J. Ghirardelli):    Testing continued this month on the Cloud Layer Advection Model cloud forecasts. Various wind combinations by which to advect the clouds at nine different layers in the atmosphere were tested both subjectively and objectively.

National Digital Forecast Development (D. Ruth): MDL updated the NDFD prototype offices in the central cluster with IFPS components compatible with FSL's release of RPP 14.

Representatives from each of the WFOs participating in the central NDFD prototype cluster met in Kansas City December 4-5 to discuss the best methods for coordinating forecasts among them. This meeting was similar to a meeting held in October by WFOs participating in the eastern NDFD cluster.

On December 13, Dave Ruth traveled to the 54th Annual Meeting and Convention of the National Business Aviation Association (NBAA) in New Orleans to present the NWS vision for a national digital database to NWS customers and partners.

FORECAST EVALUATION PROJECT (W. Shaffer)

Forecast Verification Analysis (V. Dagostaro):    We continued our review of papers related to developing a verification system for gridded forecasts. These papers contained information on estimating daily surface temperature and precipitation over complex topography, stochastic dynamic prediction techniques, applying rank-order statistics to meteorological elements, and evaluating the performance of ensemble forecasts. Related to this effort, we are examining the quality of NGM- and AVN-based MOS wind speed and direction forecasts compared to direct model forecasts from the NGM, AVN, and Eta models.

We tested several new capabilities we plan to add to our MOS verification website. We now can obtain scores for any user-defined date range within the range of our available data (April 1 to November 30, 2001) and allow the user to choose any individual station or pre-defined region. The test web site computes scores and generates images on request, rather than showing pre- computed images. In addition, we are including verification statistics for NGM and AVN MOS wind speed and direction on the test website. These changes were requested by forecasters reviewing the site and will make the website more useful to our users. They will also assist OCWWS in providing verification results to the field and Regions.

We provided monthly verification scores for November to OCWWS.

COASTAL MARINE PREDICTION PROJECT (W. Shaffer)

Storm Surge and Wave Forecasting (W. Shaffer):    For a Delmarva Catastrophic Planning exercise, we prepared and presented results of a SLOSH hurricane simulation for a hypothetical Cat 4 hurricane. The hurricane's computed winds and surges were animated, depicting their timing as the hurricane moved over the Chesapeake Bay, the Delmarva Peninsula, and the Delaware Bay. The meeting was hosted by FEMA Region 3 and included many state and local emergency managers with responsibility for the Delmarva.

PRODUCTS GENERATION PROJECT (M. Peroutka)

IFP Implementation and Enhancement (R. Meiggs):   IFPS software for AWIPS Release 5.2.1 continued integration testing at PRC.

IFP Product Development and Evolution (M. Peroutka): Alpha testing of IFPS software for AWIPS Release 5.2.1 continued. Software has now been installed at two of the three NDFD clusters.

Development continued on IFPS capabilities to support the generation of Fire Weather forecasts. Coding is well underway. MDL developers continue to work with OS staff to ensure geographic datasets will be available.

Development continued on IFPS capabilities to support service backup. This feature will allow a backup WFO to issue products for another, WFO that has failed.

In late November, IFPS developers traveled to Anchorage, Alaska, to meet with Alaska Region personnel and refine requirements for IFPS at OCONUS sites. >