STORM SCALE PREDICTION PROJECT (S. Smith)

Hydrometeorological Monitoring (T. Filiaggi):   All AWIPS Build 5 development for SCAN, FFMP and LSR was completed.

Watch/Warning Assistance (M. McInerney):   All AWIPS Build 5 development for the WWA interface'was completed.

Nowcast Guidance Development (D. Kitzmiller):   Porting of operational processing of 10 km National Radar Mosaic to NCEP IBM SP was completed ahead of schedule.

Outreach:   Laura Cutrer served as a judge for a Science Fair at Patuxent Elementary School in Upper Marlboro, MD.

SYNOPTIC-SCALE PREDICTION PROJECT (P. Dallavalle)

Statistical Forecast Development (P. Dallavalle):   Development of warm season MOS equations to predict total sky cover and ceiling height from the 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC forecast cycles of the AVN model has been completed. For the 0000 and 1200 UTC forecast cycles, these equations will replace the equations that have been operational since July 2000. For the 0600 and 1800 UTC cycles, we will begin producing total sky cover and ceiling height guidance on April 1.

We've also completed development of new warm season equations to predict maximum/minimum (max/min) temperature, 2-m temperature, and 2-m dew point from the MRF model for projections out to approximately 276 hours after 0000 UTC. This development updates equations that have been operational since June 2000. In addition, MRF MOS temperature and dew point guidance will be available during the warm season for over 300 new sites in the contiguous United States, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. We're also continuing an experiment to provide a simple bias-correction to thermal predictors used in the MRF MOS system. This effort began last summer after changes made to the MRF model seemed to result in a cold bias in some of the temperature guidance. Initial results of this work were documented in a paper entitled "The New AVN/MRF MOS Development and Model Changes: A Volatile Mix?" by M. C. Erickson, J. P. Dallavalle, and K. L. Carroll. M. Erickson recently presented this paper at the American Meteorological Society's (AMS) 16 th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences.

We've completed development of Eta-based MOS equations to predict max/min temperature, 2-m temperature, and 2-m dew point during the warm and cool seasons at stations in the contiguous United States. Equations to predict the warm season probability of precipitation (PoP) have also been developed. Work is now beginning on the Eta-based MOS prediction of sky cover.

To support the NWS forecasters in using IFPS, we're initiating an effort to develop techniques to provide MOS guidance at a finer spatial resolution than is done currently. As part of this task, we've investigated the availability of geophysical datasets such as terrain elevation or soil type that can be used in combination with meteorological forecasts as predictors for regionalized MOS equations. We are planning to access some of the same datasets used by the NCEP modelers. We are also planning to develop site- specific MOS temperature, dew point, and wind guidance for additional sites, particularly in the western U.S. and coastal regions. These new sites observe these elements, but report them in non-traditional formats. Availability of MOS guidance at these locations will substantially increase the spatial resolution. We're currently investigating the availability of archives of these observational data.

Operations and Software Support (M. Erickson):

On January 22, 2002, we implemented changes to the MOS system to increase the number of sites for which AVN- and MRF-based MOS products are available. Guidance products for an additional 323 sites in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands were added to the system, brining the total number of sites to 1383.

Customers of the MOS products were notified that the old AVN- based MOS FAN alphanumeric messages will be removed from the Family of Services and the AWIPS/NOAAPORT datastreams. The removal is scheduled for April 30, 2002. The FAN product has been replaced by the MOS MAV product which contains forecasts for more weather elements, projections, and stations.

Efforts to implement Eta-based MOS guidance are well underway. Forecasts are now being generated in real-time in an experimental mode. Formal implementation is planned for early April 2002.

MESOSCALE PREDICTION PROJECT (D. Ruth)

Statistical Update Development (J. Ghirardelli):   Testing continued this month on the Cloud Layer Advection Model (CLAM).cloud forecasts. The resolution of the advective winds was made variable, which enables us to produce roughly the same results with less computer computations, and will be greatly beneficial in the LAMP model archiving. Software was written to quickly and efficiently produce plots of the verification scores for the CLAM testing. The software produces verification plots much quicker than can be done manually.

National Digital Forecast Database Development (D. Ruth): Plans for the development of the National Digital Forecast Database were presented this month at the 82 nd Annual Meeting of the AMS in Orlando, Florida. Mr. David Ruth, leading off Tuesday's sessions on IFPS at the AWIPS Symposium, delivered a presentation entitled "IFPS - the future has come." During the talk, he described the planned development of the NDFD in concert with IFPS deployment nationwide. Many more presentations on IFPS followed throughout the day.

MDL developers also provided demonstrations of IFPS at the NWS exhibit. In addition to NWS forecasters and partners, IFPS techniques were demonstrated to meteorologists from Canada, Germany, Sweden, Australia, and New Zealand.

FORECAST EVALUATION PROJECT (W. Shaffer)

Storm Surge and Wave Forecasting:  FEMA conducted three week-long courses, "Introduction to Hurricanes," at the National Hurricane Center. These courses were for emergency managers along the Gulf and the Atlantic coasts. Each course was tailored to the emergency managers' locations and threats. The courses included an overview of hurricanes, hurricane forecasting and inaccuracies in those forecasts, storm surges and SLOSH modeling, use of the HURREVAC and SLOSH display programs, and various topics related to hurricane evacuation studies, planning and mitigation. Several NHC forecasters provided instruction on the hurricane segments, and MDL's Dr. Shaffer provided much of the SLOSH instruction.

PRODUCTS GENERATION PROJECT (M. Peroutka)

IFP Implementation and Enhancement (R. Meiggs):   IFPS software for AWIPS Release 5.2.1 continued integration testing at Northrop Grumman Information Technology (NGIT, formerly PRC).

IFPS software for AWIPS Release 5.2.2 was delivered to the AWIPS configuration management systems at NGIT.

IFP Product Development and Evolution (M. Peroutka): Alpha testing of IFPS software for AWIPS Release 5.2.1 continued at two of the three WFO clusters. IFPS developers also provided input to an effort to model the AWIPS communications systems and the impact of gridded forecasts for the National Digital Forecast Database.

IFPS developers traveled to Salt Lake City, Utah, to attend sessions of the Western Region IFPS Focal Point Workshop. While in Salt Lake City, they discussed options for making the IFPS development process more responsive to the needs of the field forecasters. After discussion at an MSD Chiefs' conference call, MDL is actively working to put a rapid release alpha testing process in place.