January - March, 1998 Quarterly Progress Report

Quarterly Progress Report, January - March, 1998

TECHNIQUES DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM (H. Glahn)

The primary objective of the Techniques Development Program is to develop analysis and forecast techniques which, when implemented, will help improve forecast accuracy and service to the wide range of users of NWS products. These techniques are implemented on NOAA's computer system, when appropriate, and guidance products disseminated via AFOS, facsimile, or other NWS distribution systems. Techniques are produced for basic weather elements used in public and aviation forecasts, such as temperature and visibility. Also, special emphasis is given to marine-related forecasts and to those forecasts especially associated with mesoscale processes. For many synoptic-scale forecasts, the output of operational numerical models is used to produce forecasts of weather elements of interest to users. When dealing with forecasts of shorter time and space scales, more use is made of data sets rich in information on those scales; for example, hourly and automated surface reports and radar, satellite, and profiler data. For marine-related forecasts, numerical and statistical models relate elements of interest, such as storm surge, to atmospheric analyzes and forecasts.

This quarter, progress continued in readying the new MOS-2000 software and archived data for development of an interpretive system based on NCEP's Aviation Model. Forecasts for TDL's trajectory model were put into "redbook" format and should soon be placed on the AWIPS SBN. The first phase of SCAN is being implemented into AWIPS Build 4.1; this includes the Thunderstorm Product and 0-1 hour QPF. Development of a gridded 10-km radar mosaic, based on the Aviation Weather Center's current product, is completed and should be on the SBN within a few weeks. LAMP, as part of the ICWF package, continues to be implemented into AWIPS, and its data ingest is being made more robust. Software to display storm surge model results on AWIPS is under development. The consolidated IFPS has progressed to the point that it will be demonstrated to the IFPS Forecasters' Working Group in April. A number of enhancements to ICWF are being tested at the Charleston WFO, including the voice-ready Service Area Forecast product, and at the Pittsburgh WFO in support of QPF risk reduction.

OBJECTIVE WEATHER PREDICTION PROJECT (P. Dallavalle)

Short-Range Weather Forecasting Task (P. Dallavalle): Efforts continued at the Cooperative Institute at Pennsylvania State University to develop a methodology to produce MOS forecasts of the max/min temperature, dew point, and wind speed at any point in the contiguous U.S. regardless of the availability of historical observations. Numerous experiments to develop and improve max/min temperature forecasts at non-MOS sites have been completed. In general, interpolation of the max/min guidance from MOS sites to non-MOS sites with a subsequent correction based on the local climatic data appears to produce reasonable guidance at the non-MOS sites. Testing and development of the MOS-2000 software system on the Cray and the local HP workstations are continuing. Particular emphasis during this quarter was placed on software to create the edited hourly observation archive, to generate climatic relative frequencies, and to verify the MOS forecasts. An archive of the Aviation (AVN) run of NCEP's Global Spectral Model (GSM) is now available from April 1997 through the present. An archive of Eta model data is available from April 1994 through the present. In preparation for the next development of MOS guidance, we've provided a list of potential MOS sites and a summary of the current NGM- and MRF-based MOS guidance to the Office of Meteorology.

Software to post-process the NGM-based MOS quantitative precipitation (QPF) probabilities for use in an NWS Eastern Region risk reduction exercise has been completed and submitted for implementation in the Interactive Forecast Preparation system. Algorithms coded in the software estimate the fraction of precipitation that will fall in the 6-h periods of 12-18, 18-24, 24-30, and 30-36 hours after 0000 UTC and the precipitation amount that could be exceeded with a conditional probability of 75, 50, or 25 percent (exceedance fractiles).

Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Task (M. Erickson): The new operational archive of the Medium-Range Forecast (MRF) run of the GSM has been supplemented with data from NCEP's model history tapes. Historic data from April through September 1997 were successfully merged with the existing October through December archive. The MRF archive is now available from April 1997 through the present. We are also adding MRF data available from NCEP for the period of 1992-1996. These data are available every fifth day for projections of 12 to 192 hours after 0000 UTC.

J. Settelmaier and M. Erickson presented ensemble-based MOS max/min verification results at a TDL seminar in January. These results were also discussed with NCEP personnel in March.

National Verification Processing Task (V. Dagostaro): In support of the AFOS-Era Verification (AEV) program, we continued our effort to convert the data processing system to run on UNIX-based platforms. Tests using various data formats for direct access files resulted in the selection of a format that allows direct access data files to be transported from the Cray mainframe to the HP workstations, and vice versa. The weekly data archiving software has been modified to store recent data in the new format. For permanent storage of recent and historical verification data, software is being developed, to write the AEV data in the standard MOS-2000 packed data format. A new procedure to automatically execute the weekly AEV data collection software and transfer data files has also been developed, and testing is underway. Finally, development of software to quality control the AEV data has begun.

Severe Weather Prediction Task (R. Reap): Software was added to the NGM-based trajectory model to produce AFOS graphical products containing parcel trajectories for the CONUS. An NCEP program was then used to convert the trajectory graphics from vector format into "redbook" format for eventual display on AWIPS. Following appropriate coordination with OM and NCEP, the new code will be implemented in the operational trajectory model in April 1998. Actual transmission on the Satellite Broadcast Network (SBN) should also start in April after coordination with OSO. Product display on the AWIPS communications system will occur sometime in 1999.

An effort is underway to develop MOS thunderstorm and severe local storm probability forecast equations from Eta model predictors and archived observational data. Initial runs have been made to produce a predictand dataset comprised of cloud-to-ground lightning reports and severe weather events from NCEP's Storm Prediction Center log. The U201 program from the new MOS-2000 system is currently being used to generate the initial datasets required for development.

LOCAL TECHNIQUES DEVELOPMENT PROJECT (R. Reap)

0-3 Hour QPF and Severe Weather Task (D. Kitzmiller): The 0-1 hour rainfall forecast algorithm and severe local storm nowcast algorithm are being integrated into AWIPS. Real-time testing of product displays for both algorithms is currently underway. The algorithms are also being verified on historical data comprised of Level II archive data from a large sample of convective weather events acquired during the 1996-97 warm seasons. A paper titled "Probabilistic 0-3 Hour Rainfall Forecasts From a Satellite Extrapolative-Statistical Model" was presented by D. Kitzmiller at the 16th Weather Analysis and Forecasting Conference in Phoenix, Arizona.

Development and testing of the national Radar Coded Message (RCM) mosaic and AUTOROB production algorithms is proceeding rapidly. Testing has been underway since February on the mosaicking and quality control algorithms to remove terrain clutter and anomalous propagation echoes. During the tests, the final reflectivity analyzes were found to be in close agreement with operational RCM mosaics produced by NCEP.

Thunderstorm Identification and Forecasting Task (S. Smith): The SCAN 1.0 AWIPS implementation was completed and the code delivered to PRC. Deployment of this first build of SCAN, which includes the Phase-I AWIPS Thunderstorm Product and the 0-1 hour QPF, is scheduled for August 1998 as part of AWIPS Build 4.1. Work continues on evaluating the Phase-II (satellite-enhanced) Thunderstorm Product using data archived from the 1997 convective season. The algorithm is being evaluated for three sites: Sterling, Virginia, Melbourne, Florida, and Phoenix, Arizona.

SCAN briefings were given for the GOES Special Issues Working Group meeting, the WHFS/SCAN/AMBER National Workshop, the Integrated Systems Laboratory, and the Office of Meteorology.

Local AWIPS MOS Program (J. Ghirardelli): Work continues on implementing LAMP within the AWIPS system. We also assisted the Network Control Facility in troubleshooting LAMP at the three WFO's currently running LAMP. As part of the effort to make LAMP Year-2000 compliant, we analyzed the LAMP pre-processing and hourly software on the NHDW. We found that none of our code uses C codes which HP has indicated are not yet Year 2000 compliant. Most of the LAMP code represents the year with four digits. However, the code for the ingest products represents the year with two digits and will need to be addressed. In order to display LAMP analysis grids within AWIPS, we created the necessary control files and modified the LAMPHOURLIES script to produce hourly analyzes of all desired fields. These changes are scheduled to be contained within the AWIPS Build 4.1 implementation. We also created site-specific equations, thresholds, weight files, and location files for the second cluster of AWIPS sites (CTP, FWD, LIX, OKX, PHI, PQR, Eastern and Western Region Headquarters) and delivered them to PRC via DAT tapes.

We studied the LAMP preprocessing code in AWIPS to determine the code modifications needed to make LAMP more robust in responding to delayed data ingest. We also investigated the timing of the cron jobs and found that LAMP could be run at an earlier time; therefore, we plan to adjust the crons to accomplish this early next quarter.

In response to the Risk Reduction effort at the Pittsburgh (PBZ) and Charleston (RLX) WFOs, we worked with the Products Development and Synoptic Scale Branches in testing a new BUFR MOS message with two additional Probabilistic QPF categories. We tested the impact of the new message on LAMP's execution and forecast output on both the GDP and NHDW systems and found no differences in LAMP performance and output.

The LAMP Shared Window Service Display software (compiled in the HP UNIX 10.20 environment) was loaded onto two HP systems at RLX after they upgraded the systems to HP UNIX 10.20. The LAMP Realtime Products web page was also put on the OSO server this quarter. The home page address is www.nws.noaa.gov/tdl/lamp. Feedback received so far has been positive.

A paper titled "A General Overview of Methodology and Applications of LAMP, a Short-Term Forecast Guidance Product" by S.Kelly was presented at the AMS 16th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting in Phoenix, Arizona. J. Ghirardelli presented a Poster detailing TDL's World Wide Web products at the AMS Electronic Poster Session.

Heavy Precipitation Forecasting (J. Charba): Processing is underway on the archived hourly precipitation data that were obtained from NCDC in the previous quarter. The data set had undergone additional quality controls with new data quality flags added by NCDC. As a result, our existing processing codes had to be revised to accommodate the changes in data format. Improvements in the processing efficiency of our codes were also necessitated by the large volume of data to be processed for the years 1948-62. The code revisions were completed and data processing is on schedule.

The LAMP QPF model for the CONUS continues to run in a real-time experimental mode on TDL's workstations. During the past quarter, we added QPF products generated by the model to TDL's Internet Home Page. For operational implementation of the LAMP QPF model at local AWIPS sites, we are currently working on an adaptation of the model in which the areal coverage corresponds to a WFO's area of responsibility. A review of the present national system is underway to determine what changes are required to generate proper coverage for the local systems. A paper titled "Evaluation of LAMP Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts" by J. Charba was presented at the 16th AMS Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting held in Phoenix, Arizona. Another paper titled "The LAMP QPF Products. Part I: Model Development," by J. Charba was accepted by the AMS for publication in Weather and Forecasting.

MARINE ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION PROJECT (W. Shaffer)

Hurricane Storm Surge Forecasting Task (W. Shaffer): At the request of the Tropical Prediction Center, we are extending the updated SLOSH basin for the Miami area to include Broward County. We are developing the database from USGS raster images since USGS digital elevation model data are not yet available for this area.

The SLOSH graphics display is being rewritten to be run on both the AWIPS UNIX platform and the PC/WINDOWS platform. We held an AWIPS start-up meeting to initiate the project. Our program is coming along well, with demonstrations of our current capabilities given at the start-up meeting and at the Tropical Prediction Center.

The Tropical Prediction Center conducted three sessions of the FEMA course "Introduction to Hurricane Preparedness" this winter. These three courses were tailored to emergency managers who make recommendations for coastal evacuations during hurricanes. Each of the one-week courses featured hurricane basics (with emphasis on hurricane track errors), storm surge impacts and use and interpretation of SLOSH model output, and evacuation planning in response to hurricane threats. In addition, a special, condensed version of the course was conducted for coastal NWS forecasters. W. Shaffer aided TPC by teaching sessions on storm surge modeling, tide prediction, and computer assistance models for decision making.

Extratropical Storm Surge Forecasting Task (W. Shaffer): We are readying our West Coast version of the extratropical storm surge model to run twice daily, in an experimental mode. We examined the performance of the East Coast extratropical surge model for two recent, significant cases--January 29 and February 6, 1998. These Nor'Easters affected with Mid-Atlantic bight area, causing roughly 5 feet of surge from Hampton Roads to Atlantic City, New Jersey. The model's forecasts were in good agreement for both cases, with good correlation between the model and the observed water levels and the peak surge values captured well.

Coastal Wave Forecasting Task (C.-S. Wu): We examined two deep water wave models using hurricanes Eloise (1975) and Opal (1995) --an Australian model by Young and the Bretschneider model. For Eloise, we found that the Australian wave model gave the best results; for Opal which was a larger storm, the Bretschneider model gave the best results. We also linked the deep and nearshore wave models for test runs. The wave set-up and run-up from this combined model seem realistic when computed for hurricanes Opal and Fran (1996). We still need an intermediate shallow water wave model to account for waves generated on wide continental shelves.

We began to extend the parametric model to include both sea and swell calculations. We find that hurricanes Opal and Eloise generated swell when they were well offshore, in deep water. Swell--the waves propagating out beyond the wave generation area increases the wave effects at the coastline.

LOCAL PRODUCTS DEVELOPMENT PROJECT (D. Ruth)

WFO Application Development and Support Task (D. Ruth): Design, Development, and Testing teams are currently working to prepare hydrometeorological (HM) applications for AWIPS Build 4. One team is developing formatters for the Hourly Weather Roundup and Climate Report to be broadcast on the NWR, an application to monitor Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs), and forecast verification software in AWIPS Release 4.2. A second team is delivering applications that display thunderstorm information and MOS, LAMP, and ICWF forecast data within the D2D window in Release 4.1.

IFP Implementation and Enhancement Task (R. Meiggs): The ICWF "A-team" supported PRC in its installation of AWIPS 3.1 in the field. In addition, we supported Software Integration Testing of AWIPS 4.0 at PRC. This involved identifying, fixing, and verifying several Discrepancy Reports (DRs).

Initial coding to support the watch decentralization product, the voice-ready Service Area Forecast product, flexible 6/12 hour periods in the Zone Forecast Product, and heat index/wind chill parameters in the Revised Digital Forecast product have been completed. This software is part of a beta-test at the Charleston, West Virginia, forecast office that began in March. The latter two enhancements will be included in AWIPS 4.1 and the Service Area Forecast is planned for AWIPS 4.2. A problem was discovered in the transmission of GRIB QPFs from the WFO to the RFC in Tulsa, Oklahoma. A fix was included in an emergency release of AWIPS 3.1. A new Zone Forecast Product formatter was also included in this release to correct the so- called "POP drop problem." Several changes were made to the form and table used for entering data in the ICWF field reports database, originally conceived by Dave Helms of OM. The initial field reports database (approximately 250 reports) was modified to conform to the new format. Specifically, the new form includes new/modified columns which will make tracking, cross referencing, and identification of the field problems easier and more efficient.

TDL worked with Modernization Systems Management to revamp the process for delivering IFPS site specific geographic information. Under the new scheme, TDL parses national data sets for particu lar WFOs. The process was rethought because interactive applications associated intersite coordination and Service Area Forecasts now require data for surrounding offices.