SYNOPTIC-SCALE PREDICTION PROJECT (P. Dallavalle)

Statistical Forecast Development (P. Dallavalle):   Development of cool season MOS equations to predict visibility and non-precipitating obstructions to vision during all four forecast cycles of the Global Forecast System (GFS) has been completed. Work on GFS-based cool season equations to predict precipitation occurrence and precipitation characteristics is underway. We are also redeveloping the GFS-based system to predict the probability of precipitation and precipitation amount for projections of 1 to 7 days in advance during the 0000 UTC forecast cycle.

As discussed in previous progress reports, we're processing observations from the cooperative observer network for use in the GFS- and Eta-based snowfall prediction system as well as to supplement the maximum/minimum (max/min) temperature prediction system. Algorithms to use both the snowfall and max/min observations as predictand data have now been developed. We're currently assessing what stations should be used in development of prediction equations.

Development of Eta-based thunderstorm and severe thunderstorm prediction equations for the summer and cool seasons is underway. Initial tests on independent data indicate that the skill of the Eta-based thunderstorm forecasts is similar to that of the GFS- based thunderstorm guidance.

Operations and Software Support (M. Erickson): In early June, we began disseminating Eta MOS guidance to NWS forecasters as well as to other forecasters in both the public and private sectors. The guidance is available in alphanumeric messages that are produced twice a day from the 0000 and 1200 UTC Eta model runs. At this time, forecasts of max/min temperature, surface temperature and dew point, wind speed and direction, probability of precipitation, categorical precipitation amount, and total sky cover are included in the messages for 1258 sites in the continental U.S. In the coming months, we will add thunderstorm and severe weather forecasts. In addition to the alphanumeric te@@ messages, we provide GEMPAK images of the forecasts on the MDL website.

On June 26th, numerous MDL MOS products began posting to the new NWS ftp server: tgftp.nws.noaa.gov. The products, which are generated on the IBM supercomputer, are shipped to the new server where they are available to customers via anonymous ftp. Staff from MDL, NCEP Central Operations, and the CIO's Telecommunications Operations Center coordinated to complete this effort.

MESOSCALE PREDICTION PROJECT: (D. Ruth)

Statistical Update Development (J. Ghirardelli):   Dr. Jerome Charba participated in a PQPF Workshop on June3-4 at NCEP, and presented a talk entitled "PQPF Verification for Hydrologic Applications." The purpose of the workshop was to organize NWS PQPF activities into an integrated system to provide a seamless suite of QPF products in support of the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System (AHPS).

National Digital Forecast Database Development (D. Ruth):   NDFD developers prepared, tested, and integrated code for delivery in IFPS that encodes and transmits additional forecast elements to the NDFD central server. Currently, the NDFD contains max/min temperature and probability of precipitation fields. With the release of IFPS 11, the NDFD will expand to include temperature, dewpoint, wind direction, wind speed, and sky cover grids as well.

PRODUCTS GENERATION PROJECT (M. Peroutka)

IFP Implementation and Enhancement (R. Meiggs):   IFPS 10.4 continued its testing at 30 Alpha Test WFOS. A Limited System Acceptance Test (LSYAT) for IFPS 10.4 encountered problems and needed to be repeated. The retest should be finished in early July. Major features in IFPS 10.4 include Intersite coordination of gridded forecasts and formatters for Fire Weather forecasts.

IFP Product Development and Evolution (M. Peroutka):   The second product of the IFPS Rapid Alpha Process (RAP),, IFPS 11, finished its development period. IFPS 11 will feature support for Service Backup and improvements to Fire Weather product generation.

MDL worked with the Office of Climate, Weather, and Water Services (OCCWS) to prioritize requirements for IFPS 12. Development for IFPS 12 began.

FORECAST EVALUATION PROJECT (W. Shaffer)

Forecast Verification Analysis (V. Dagostaro):   We completed our evaluation of the impact of IFPS on max/min temperature and PoP forecasts for a subset of the AVP sites and are now preparing an MDL Office Note describing the results. Results of these comparisons show that no deterioration in max/min temperature or Pop forecasts resulted from the implementation of IFPS. We also began work to evaluate MOS forecasts and direct model output of wind and temperature using data for the most recent 2-year period. This study will provide information that will assist us in our work to develop a verification system for gridded forecasts.

During June, approximately half of all WFOs installed the AWIPS Build 5.2.1 version of the AVP data collection software. For those sites, we monitored the AVP data to identify potential problems and coordinated with the appropriate NWS Regional Headquarters and WFOs to rectify problems such as data transmission failures. We also coordinated with three WFOs that plan to transmit public weather data for new verification sites beginning July 1, bringing the station total to 220.

COASTAL MARINE PREDICTION PROJECT (W. Shaffer)

Storm Surge and Wave Forecasting (W. Shaffer):   At the request of the Alaska region, we modified our extratropical storm surge web site to include water level computations at selected locations without tidal constituents,, but having timing and amplitude corrections. We developed an algorithm to compute the hourly tidal values at these sites, then combine these hourly values with surge computations as at other sites. Since no observations are available at these sites, no anomaly correction is possible. Our graphical product can save the Anchorage WFO considerable time over manually generating the total water elevations, a tedious and error-prone calculation done under the pressure of getting out a coastal flood warning. 4