SYNOPTIC-SCALE PREDICTION PROJECT (P. Dallavalle)

Statistical Forecast Development (P. Dallavalle):   As mentioned in last month's report, we've obtained observational data from both the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) and the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). The two datasets will be used to augment the guidance available in the current MOS system, particularly snowfall and coastal winds. We're able to extract the observational data and write the observations in MOS-2000 format. We now are assessing data availability and locations of observing sites that will be used to develop the AVN and Eta MOS snowfall systems for the upcoming 2002-03 winter.

Development of summer season MOS equations to predict the probability of thunderstorms and the conditional probability of severe weather from the 0600 and 1800 UTC forecast cycles of the AVN model has been completed. We've also completed derivation of the warm season AVN MOS quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) equations required for the 0600 and 1800 UTC AVN forecast cycles.

We've completed development of Eta-based MOS equations to predict warm season total sky cover at stations in the contiguous United States. Development of Eta-based MOS equations to predict thunderstorms and severe weather is now underway.

Operations and Software Support (M. Erickson):   During March, we implemented updated MOS equations to predict temperature and dewpoint from the MRF model, and wind, total sky cover, ceiling height, thunderstorms, and severe weather from the AVN model. These new equations will provide warm season forecasts for the 323 stations added to the MOS system in January.

On March 21, 2002, we began posting on the Statistical Modeling Branch Web page alphanumeric bulletins containing experimental Eta MOS forecasts. These bulletins currently contain forecasts of wind speed, wind direction, and the probability of precipitation and categorical precipitation amount for 6- and 12-h intervals. Forecasts of maximum and minimum temperature, 2-m temperature, 2-m dewpoint, and total sky cover will be added to the messages during the first week of April.

Coordination regarding the effects of changes to NCEP's Global Forecast System (GFS) on short- and medium-range MOS products is continuing. We are currently testing the impact of removing the "MRF" run of the GFS on the medium-range MOS forecasts. This change to the GFS is scheduled for late April.

MESOSCALE PREDICTION PROJECT (D. Ruth)

Statistical Update Development (D. Ruth):   Dr. Jess Charba played a lead role in the Warm-Season QPF workshop held in Boulder Colorado March 5-7. The workshop was organized by the USWRP of NCAR to establish future research priorities that should lead to improved warm season quantitative precipitation forecasting. The specific objective is to adopt a set of recommendations of research to be supported by government agencies over the next 5-10 year period. MDL is now posting NDFD mosaics internally on the AWIPS LAN. The current display is based upon software developed at the Philadelphia WFO.

Digital Forecast Database Development ( Ruth):   On March 20- 21, Meteorologists-in-Charge from 17 NDFD prototype offices nationwide met in Peachtree City, Georgia, to develop a coordinated view on how best to move the NDFD from a prototype into future NWS operations. The group took a snapshot of the current NDFD demonstration, shared experiences and best practices for producing well-coordinated forecasts, and then refined the NDFD vision based on experience. The group also toured the Weather Channel while in the Atlanta area.

PRODUCTS GENERATION PROJECT (M. Peroutka)

IFP Product Development and Evolution (M. Peroutka):   The IFPS Rapid Alpha Process (RAP) continued to be refined. Alpha Test WFOs were designated by the regions, and the Office of Climate, Weather, and Water Services conducted the first monthly conference call. The first RAP version of IFPS, named IFPS10, was installed on an MDL test bed and began its first testing cycle. Arrangements were coordinated with the OST Science and Engineering Center to provide additional testing for IFPS10 anticipating its eventual release to AWIPS baseline sites.

MDL developers met with Western Region marine focal points to discuss IFPS marine formatters and specific phraseology for wind waves and swell.

FORECAST EVALUATION PROJECT (W. Shaffer)

Forecast Verification Analysis (V. Dagostaro):   To support OCWWS' goal of increasing the number of public weather verification sites, we coordinated with six WFOs that plan to transmit data for an additional 22 new verification sites beginning April 1. Because verification scores for new sites will only be accessible through MDL's verification web site for the foreseeable future, we improved the design of the web page and database in order to more easily update them when new stations are added. A preliminary version of the new MDL verification web site is now available. In order to more easily spot data receipt problems for new sites, we enhanced our weekly data inventory software in order to compute the percentage of missing local forecasts and observations. We will provide these enhanced inventories to OCWWS.

Two MDL Office Notes describing seasonal verification results were distributed. The Office Notes are: "AFOS-Era Verification of Guidance and Local Aviation/Public Weather Forecasts - No. 24 (April 1995 - September 1995)" by Valery J. Dagostaro, J. Paul Dallavalle, and Jennifer L. Offutt and "AFOS-Era Verification of Guidance and Local Aviation/Public Weather Forecasts - No. 25 (October 1995 - March 1996)" by Valery J. Dagostaro and J. Paul Dallavalle.

COASTAL MARINE PREDICTION PROJECT (W. Shaffer)

Storm Surge and Wave Forecasting (W. Shaffer):   Following NHC's completion of the Galveston, Texas, simulation study, Dr. Shaffer joined NHC's Brian Jarvinen in presenting the study results to emergency managers in the Galveston Bay area. In two separate meetings in Texas City, Texas, Jarvinen talked of the model update and the new MEOW's and MOM's that were computed for the Galveston Bay area. Shaffer led users through the SLOSH display program, using Galveston Bay as the basis for his discussions.