SYNOPTIC-SCALE PREDICTION PROJECT (P. Dallavalle)

Statistical Forecast Development (P. Dallavalle):   Development of warm season MOS equations to predict visibility and non-precipitating obstructions to vision during all four forecast cycles of the Global Forecast System (GFS) has been completed. Work on the cool season equations is underway.

We are now working to develop techniques that generate MOS guidance at spatial resolutions commensurate with IFPS requirements. As discussed in previous progress reports, we've obtained observational data from both the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) and the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Observations from over 100 buoys and C-MAN sites have been extracted from the NDBC data, written in our developmental format, and are available for use in the MOS system. We have begun development of wind speed and direction forecasts for these sites based on all four cycles of the GFS. Guidance will be available for projections to 72 hours after initial cycle time. The cooperative observer network data from NCDC have been processed for use in our snow fall prediction system as well as to supplement the maximum/minimum (max/min) temperature prediction system. We're currently developing a procedure to handle the different reporting times encountered in the cooperative observer network. We've also worked extensively with both the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center as well as with the Office of Hydrologic Development to obtain an archive of Stage III radar-estimated precipitation amounts. This dataset will eventually be used to develop an experimental, high-resolution precipitation amount forecast product. Finally, we've begun to make significant modifications in the MOS software system in order to handle the large number of forecast data points required to initialize a 2.5 km grid covering the United States.

Operations and Software Support (M. Erickson): Alphanumeric messages (FOUS12) containing max/min temperature forecasts for nine of the NWS River Forecast Centers (RFC's) were updated on May 14, 2002. The messages for four RFC's were modified to use the GFS-based MOS guidance (contained in the MAV and MEX products) and to include additional stations. The messages at five other RFC's had been updated previously. The guidance for the Day 11 min temperature was added to the messages for all RFC's. This implementation completes current efforts to improve the temporal and spatial resolution and quality of the max/min temperature guidance provided to the RFC's.

For 30 years, we've generated max/min temperature guidance for certain Canadian sites to support NWS operations along the northern borders of the continental U.S. Updated alphanumeric messages (FOCN20, FECN21) containing max/min temperature fore casts for these selected Canadian stations were implemented during this past month. New stations were included in the messages which now display the new GFS-based MOS guidance. The updated short-range message was added as of April 30, with the extended-range message following on May 14.

MESOSCALE PREDICTION PROJECT: (D. Ruth)

Statistical Update Development (J. Ghirardelli):   The LAMP group obtained 2km WSI Radar data for periods in 2000 - 2002 from NASA's Global Hydrology Resource Center. With the exception of a few months when the data was unavailable, this completes the time period of data we are interested in, which runs from 1997 until the current. During this month, the radar archiving software which processes the data and packs it into TDLPACK format was finalized and tested on the 6 months of raw data representing the cool season of 1998 - 1999. The remaining radar archive should be completed by the end of June.

National Digital Forecast Database Development (D. Ruth):   NCEP's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) drafted an HPC NDFD Implementation Plan and ramped up 24/7 operational support for the NDFD this month. The NDFD IWT agreed to extend the NDFD prototype through the end of August in order to include an evaluation of HPC support. The NDFD IWT will meet in September to prepare a report.

We added new pages to the central NDFD server that display information on forecast consistency along WFO boundaries. We are logging forecast consistency statistics in a database so that we can better identify problems and measure improvements in generating coordinated WFO forecasts for the NDFD.

PRODUCTS GENERATION PROJECT (M. Peroutka)

IFP Product Development and Evolution (M. Peroutka):   By the end of May, IFPS10 was installed at 28 of the 30 Alpha Test WFOs. These offices provided invaluable feedback on the functionality of IFPS, suggesting new features and identifying problems. Many of these ideas are being folded into future releases of IFPS. MDL developers continued to work closely with Systems Engineering Center (SEC) to schedule and monitor installations.

Much of May was also spent developing and testing IFPS11. This version of IFPS will introduce the ability to support service backup.

FORECAST EVALUATION PROJECT (W. Shaffer)

Forecast Verification Analysis (V. Dagostaro):    We expanded our evaluation of the impact of IFPS by computing PoP verification statistics for a subset of the AVP sites. Similar to the max/min temperature study, PoP forecasts were analyzed for a 2-year data sample, with one year prior to IFPS implementation and one year post-IFPS implementation, following a 3-month transition period. Results of these comparisons show that no deterioration in PoP forecasts resulted from the implementation of IFPS.

We modified and tested our data collection software to handle additional PoP data transmitted by a few WFOs. During May, four forecast offices installed a new version of the AVP data collection software and began transmitting PoP forecasts and verifying precipitation amount observations for the 4th period. This software change also initiated the switch from NGM-based MOS to AVN-based MOS guidance as the standard of comparison. We assisted the AVP software developers in identifying possible data problems. In addition, we coordinated with one WFO that plans to transmit public weather data for seven new verification sites beginning June 1, bringing the station total to 212.

COASTAL MARINE PREDICTION PROJECT (W. Shaffer)

Storm Surge and Wave Forecasting (W. Shaffer):   "Was hurricane Andrew a Category 5 hurricane?" That's the question that NOAA's Hurricane Research Division of AOML is trying to answer. HRD requested that we run SLOSH on a series of analyzed wind fields to assist in determining what winds would be necessary to generate the 16.9 foot storm surge observed after Andrew. We found that, within the reasonable range of peak wind speeds, SLOSH still cannot generate surges as high as the observed values at the observation site. Our results are inconclusive.

We presented updated SLOSH simulation study results to emergency managers of the Southeast Louisiana Hurricane Task Force. The update shows some more flooding in certain areas compared to previous runs. Much of the additional flooding results from including several "cuts" in the levees, where roadways or rail roads cross the levees. These features were not included in the earlier model's database.