OBJECTIVE WEATHER PREDICTION PROJECT (P.Dallavalle)

Short-Range Weather Forecasting Task (P. Dallavalle): Development of the MOS-2000 system continues. Software to compute many of the derived model forecast variables has been completed. Gridded data from the Eta and Global Spectral Models (both the Aviation (AVN) and Medium-Range Forecast (MRF) runs) archived during the past 2 years have also been moved from tape to disk on the Cray main-frame in anticipation of MOS development. Development of the software that performs quality control on our archives of hourly surface observations and then encodes data into the MOS-2000 format is also nearing completion. We expect to begin converting the hourly data archives to the MOS-2000 format in January. Algorithms to compute predictand information from available hourly surface observations have also been coded, and the subroutines to estimate the daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperatures, to decompose the wind direction and speed into the u- and v-wind components, and to obtain the ceiling height from the METAR observations have been completed. Estimates of mid- and high-level cloud cover from the GOES-East and GOES-West satellites have been archived and converted into the MOS-2000 data format. An algorithm has been written to complement the observations of cloud cover from the ASOS sites with the satellite cloud estimates, and development of the appropriate software is nearing completion. Thus, much of the preparation of observational and model datasets required for development of short-range, medium-range, and severe weather guidance based on either the Eta or Global Spectral Models is done. We are now analyzing the observational data to determine sites in the contiguous U.S., Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico for which AVN- and MRF-based MOS guidance will be developed. Development of temperature and wind prediction equations will be initiated next month.

To provide adequate support to AWIPS for graphics products, we have coordinated with NCEP's NCO to produce all of the current MOS graphical products in red-book graphics format. These products will be transmitted on the AWIPS SBN. We expect implementation in late January.

Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Task (M. Erickson): Preparations for development of new medium-range daytime maximum temperature, nighttime minimum temperature, and quantitative precipitation forecasts continued this quarter. A document describing the proposed predictands for this development is in progress. A subroutine for the MOS-2000 system to compute the 12- and 24-h precipitation amount predictand was written and tested. Tests of new MRF-based MOS guidance will begin in January.

The experimental ensemble-based MOS forecast message continues to be produced and placed on an NWS server. This quarter, several inquiries about the forecasts were answered, and maintenance tasks were performed on the software which produces the guidance. A request to place the guidance on the TDL homepage is being pursued.

National Verification Processing Task (V. Dagostaro): We continued our effort to convert the AEV data processing system to run on UNIX-based platforms. Verification data for August through October 1998 were converted to the MOS-2000 format. In addition, we began the process to convert the AEV data archives created on the HDS mainframe to MOS-2000 format. The old data archives are comprised of edited and unedited data for October 1, 1983, through March 31, 1997. Eventually, data archived from the pre- AEV era will also need to be converted to the MOS-2000 format.

Preliminary verification results from unedited data were generated for the 1998 warm season. Scores were generated for max/min temperature and probability of precipitation for approximately 95 stations in the contiguous U.S. These preliminary verification results were provided to the Office of Meteorology. Development of software to quality control the AEV data is continuing.

We also completed development of software that extracts the depth of newly fallen snow from the Supplemental Climatic Data messages that are sent from the WFO's and stored on the Cray main-frame. By mid-December, we began archiving the snowfall amount. These data will be used to verify snowfall forecasts for the 1998-99 winter at approximately 18 WFO's that are collocated with airports and ASOS facilities.

Severe Weather Prediction Task (Reap): A new version of TDL's three-dimensional trajectory model was developed based on wind forecasts from the Eta model. The trajectory model interface with the Eta model is established by accessing Eta model forecast fields on GRIB grid number 104, which is a 110 by 147 output grid with a nominal 90.75-km mesh length covering the northern hemisphere. This grid was selected because of its expected longevity in NCEP's collection of model output grids. Test forecasts were made with Eta model input data and observed upper-air, surface, and ship reports and sea-surface temperature datasets. Initial test results were comparable to existing NGM-based trajectory model forecasts.

The effort continues to develop new MOS thunderstorm and severe local storm probability forecast equations from Eta model predictors and archived thunderstorm and severe local storm predictands. As part of this effort, work is nearing completion on the development of monthly thunderstorm relative frequencies for specific time intervals for input to the screening regression program. An additional year (November 1997 through September 1998) of lightning location data was also obtained from the NASA Global Hydrology Resource Center. These data will be used in the development of thunderstorm prediction equations based on output from both the Eta and Global Spectral Models.

Major enhancements were made in October to the data archived from the operational run of the trajectory model. Approximately 40 fields were added to the archive, including probabilities of thunderstorms, conditional probabilities of severe weather, indices of clear air turbulence, and indices of icing which are generated by the MOS approach and are part of the trajectory model processing.

LOCAL TECHNIQUES DEVELOPMENT PROJECT (R. Reap)

0-3 Hour QPF and Severe Weather Task (D. Kitzmiller): Development of the 0-3 hour rainfall prediction system is nearing completion. The current system includes four sets of rainfall probability equations: (1) radar-satellite, (2) radar-only, (3) satellite only, and (4) initial-time radar-only. All four sets of equations include NGM-based stability, humidity, and precipitation predictors. In effect, the new probability equations provide reliable forecasts when satellite coverage is unavailable or when spatial gaps exist in radar coverage. Set (1) equations, for example, are used in all grid boxes around which both satellite and radar coverage are spatially continuous. Set (2) equations are used where radar coverage is continuous but satellite coverage is interrupted. Set (3) equations, which include only satellite-based rainrate predictors, are used for grid boxes that lack radar coverage initially, or which lie downstream of areas lacking radar coverage. These equations are usually applied over the West Coast, southwestern Texas, and Florida, which are often affected by systems approaching from beyond the boundaries of the national radar network. Set (4) equations utilize initial-time radar predictors, but no extrapolation-based predictors. These equations are applied to grid boxes where radar indicates heavy rainfall is occurring at initial time, but which lie immediately downstream of a radar coverage gap. In this instance, the final rainfall probability estimate is taken to be the larger of the satellite-based or initial-time radar based; the system thus accounts for the greatest threat of heavy rainfall, whether from radar echoes presently observed or from deep cloud systems about to move over the area. After applying the appropriate forecast equations, the final probability fields are spatially smoothed across regions where values have been derived from different equation sets.

Experiments have been carried out to apply the Vicente-Scofield satellite-based rainfall estimation technique to 3-h rainfall prediction. This technique treats rainfall rate as basically a function of cloud-top temperature, as does TDL's present rainfall prediction system. However, the Vicente-Scofield method includes improvements such as humidity corrections and pattern-matching to discriminate non-precipitating cold clouds from convective updraft cores, where heavy rain usually occurs. Initial results indicate that this technique leads to increased skill, particularly in forecasting heavier rainfall thresholds, at the expense of modest increases in computation time. We plan, therefore, to integrate the Vicente-Scofield technique into TDL's 3-h rainfall prediction system.

We are now producing automated national radar mosaic graphics and digital datasets on the OSO testbed workstation in real time. The graphics and files are prepared from mosaics and automated radar observations (AUTOROBS) ported to OSO from the Aviation Weather Center (AWC). The AWC products are revised to indicate areas of missing radar coverage within the mosaic. The products are subsequently repackaged in GRIB and GIF formats and transmitted to TDL's GDP systems twice per hour.

The project to rehost the national radar mosaic and AUTOROB production processes from AWC to NWS headquarters has progressed to the point that we now produce both mosaics and AUTOROBS from Radar Coded Messages (RCMs) in real time. Comparison tests between TDL's products and the operational AWC products are underway.

Thunderstorm Identification and Forecasting Task (S. Smith): The AWIPS SCAN DDT team continued work in designing and prototyping the functionality of the National Severe Storms Laboratory's (NSSL's) Warning Decision Support System (WDSS) as well as the SCAN CWA Threat Indices (SCTIs) for Severe Weather and Flash Floods for SCAN 2.0. Work finalized in the WDSS development included cell table design, cell attribute rate of change alarms, and cell attribute trends and trend sets. Code changes were made to reflect changes and enhancements in the NEXRAD Build 10 radar products. A depictable format was prototyped for the SCTIs working from the existing GOES imagery depictables. Work began in accessing and decoding the Digital Precipitation Array product for use in generating the SCTI for flash floods.

The SCAN webpage was updated to include a Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) section as well as expanded documentation of SCAN 1.0 (AWIPS 4.1) and SCAN 2.0. SCAN presentations were given at the annual meeting of the Southwestern Association of Alert Systems (SAAS) in Austin, Texas; the Office of Meteorology, the annual NSSL/OSF Users Group meeting in Norman Oklahoma, and the Weather Channel Headquarters in Atlanta, Georgia.

Local AWIPS MOS Program Task (J. Ghirardelli): Site-specific equations, thresholds, weight files and location files were created and delivered for 11 AWIPS sites: RAH, ILM, RSP, OAX, TWC, ABQ, LCH, and LBF in October; and AKQ, RNK, and SHV in December. The files were delivered on-time to PRC via DAT tape and have been put under the AWIPS configuration management system. In order to facilitate configuration management of our AWIPS code, considerable time was also spent this quarter in learning the code, DR and SPR life cycles, and the utilization of PCMS on the NHDW system.

LAMP software was installed and successful runs made on the NHDD machine for the AWIPS demonstration at the Annual AMS Meeting in Dallas. We did, however, experience problems successfully receiving the ingest data via the Satellite Broadcast Network and have taken corrective measures to address this problem at the Dallas site, should it occur there. We also discovered and diagnosed a critical LAMP error where the number of regional equations used to forecast POPs was exceeding the dimension allocated for it. The error occurred only in the cool season and only at WFOs in the eastern and east central United States. We corrected the code and successfully tested the new code on the NHDW for the PBZ region. We hope to implement this fix via an emergency release.

Additional work was also completed this quarter to make LAMP more robust within AWIPS in the event of delayed ingest products. A series of UNIX scripts was written to initiate and update status files, which indicate the current status of all LAMP processes. Any process that depends on another's prior successful completion queries the status file. If the prior process is still waiting for ingest data, and has yet to complete successfully, the dependent process likewise waits. If the prior LAMP process has completed successfully, the dependent process begins. This procedure will ensure better handling of delayed products and their associated processes and will serve as a mechanism for facilitating easier troubleshooting.

Work has continued on validating Y2K compliance within AWIPS and discussions have ensued with PRC on the methodology for testing the LAMP code. Details on how to manipulate the date within the BUFR MOS messages and the METAR files have been determined and preliminary documentation completed. We also assisted PRC in troubleshooting LAMP when they reported problems in running LAMP after their installation of Build 4.2.

We finished our verification of the 0200 vs 0400 UTC LAMP runs. This was a trial run to evaluate our technique for providing intermediate hour forecasts. The verification results were promising; however, some areas of concern were highlighted and will be subjected to further investigation. We also provided assistance and guidance to the LAMP QPF group concerning the running of LAMP QPF on the NHDW for testing purposes and the ongoing implementation of LAMP QPF within AWIPS.

Heavy Precipitation Forecasting Task (J. Charba): Work on the LAMP QPF software scheduled for implementation in AWIPS Build 5.0 was completed this quarter. The new software includes upgrades to improve the internal documentation of the codes and changes to the array dimensions from fixed sizes to variable sizes using dynamic memory allocation. Preparation of external documentation of the final LAMP QPF codes is also nearing completion.

The national LAMP QPF prototype system, which runs operationally on a TDL workstation, was maintained and problems causing disruptions in both forecast issuance and archiving were addressed and solved. Changes were made to the software to improve access to the archived forecasts. The LAMP QPF system was also implemented for testing on the NHDW System, which operates within the AWIPS data flow and product display environment. A new surface station dictionary and updated station lists were implemented in a file used to estimate hourly precipitation from basic weather observations. The new dictionary resulted in the ingest of an increased number of surface observations into the objective analysis codes.

MARINE ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION PROJECT (W. Shaffer)

Hurricane Storm Surge Forecasting Task (W. Shaffer): In anticipation of this year's training course for emergency managers, we generated a CD-ROM containing the SLOSH display program, together with MEOW, MOM, and track data for each basin. This program will be made available to emergency managers attending the course, and will be sent out to coastal forecast offices prior to the upcoming hurricane season.

Extratropical Storm Surge Forecasting Task (J. Chen): We are putting experimental surge forecasts for our new Arctic Alaska extratropical surge model on our internet site. Surge forecasts for this area were requested through DACFO. Bathymetry for this model was derived from a dataset generated by NOAA's National Geodetic Data Center--the ETOPO-5 dataset.

We began to archive AVN winds from the 0600 and 1800 UTC cycle runs, in addition to the 0000 and 1200 runs we have been saving. We are beginning tests of a modified spin-up portion of the extratropical surge model which will use 6-h analyses, rather than the current 12-h analyses. We are also testing the replacement of AVN lowest sigma-level winds by AVN 10-m winds.

Coastal Wave Forecasting Task (C.S. Wu): We acquired continuous wave profile observations taken during the extratropical storm of January 28, 1998. We ran numerical model tests with a 1-D time- averaged model developed by the University of Delaware and a 2-D nonlinear time-dependent model. Both models underestimated the wave setup. We noted the shoreward waves were highly irregular and generated seaward long period waves through the swash zone. C.-S. Wu presented these observed data and numerical modeling results at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting held in December. These winter storm water level measurements were the first observational evidence to confirm Fairchild's (1958) laboratory study of wave set-up.

LOCAL PRODUCTS DEVELOPMENT PROJECT (D. Ruth)

IFP Product Development and Evolution Task (M. Peroutka): IFPS developers trained a cadre of five forecasters at the WFO in Norman, Oklahoma, to use the prototype version of the Interactive Forecast Preparation System (IFPS). These forecasters generally prepare their forecasts with the IFPS system rather than the Interactive Computer Worded Forecast (ICWF) program. The first operational forecast using this system was issued mid-November.

Several upgrades were provided to Norman. The latest version of software delivered in December improves the transfer of digital forecasts from gridded to matrix representations. This version also includes performance enhancements to the Graphical Forecast Editor made by FSL. Progress continued on adding areal coverage phrases to the precipitation phrase generation routines as well as developing improved interfaces to manage the configuration of IFPS.

A demonstration version of the IFPS was installed on the National Headquarters Development and Demonstration (NHDD) system which was then packed and shipped to Dallas, Texas, for the 79th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society.

The WFOs in Charleston, West Virginia, and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, continue to use probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) techniques to support the PQPF Risk Reduction. Development has been focused on delivering a full suite of gridded and tabular PQPF forecasts to the Ohio River Forecast Center.

IFP Implementation and Enhancement Task (R. Meiggs): TDL resolved numerous problems found within the ICWF portion of the 4.2 AWIPS code. We routinely visited PRC to assist in Software Integration and Testing.

Shortly after the installation of AWIPS 4.1 at field offices in early December, TDL developers traveled to the three ICWF risk reduction offices in Pleasant Hill, Missouri; Wichita, Kansas; and Tulsa, Oklahoma. While there, we discussed new 4.1 features, any existing or new problems with the software, and future enhancements to the software. The overall response of these offices to ICWF is now quite positive.

We continued to provide the initial site set-up as a part of the Factory Acceptance Testing (FAT). This initial site set-up data allows PRC to install IFPS during the FAT and conduct minimal testing on the software. The testing allows TDL to identify any particular problems associated with a given site before site deployment.

IFP Interpretation and Editing Task (D. Ruth): From December 10-12, Mr. David Ruth participated as an invited guest in the COST-78 European Workshop on Graphical Interaction with Gridded Fields in Helsinki, Finland. At this meeting, developers and forecasters from 12 European countries, the U.S., and Canada discussed issues associated with the development and implementation of IFP systems. The goal of these discussions was to reach a common understanding and to identify areas for future collaboration within Europe. Primary areas of discussion included central office versus local office changes to guidance, grids versus meteorological objects, grids versus matrices, and freehand editing versus model slider functions. In January, Mr. Ruth will provide an overview of the Helsinki discussions including options for implementing interactive forecast preparation at NCEP.

The development of model interpretation slider functions for maximum temperature, hourly temperature, and hourly dewpoint fields was completed. The ICWF Watch, Warning, and Advisory interface was reworked to look more like Warngen. The ICWF software will be used to prepare long-fused segmented products at all WFOs in AWIPS 4.2.

WFO Application Development and Support Task (D. Ruth): TDL developers continued to support SWIT testing of AWIPS 4.2 software at PRC. We analyzed Discrepancy Reports and delivered software fixes to PRC on a weekly basis. We also provided PRC with fixes to problems identified by our alpha test sites in the field.

The WFO in Pittsburgh continued to test alpha versions of TDL's 4.2 AWIPS applications. That office now uses AWIPS to compose all weather messages for broadcast via the NWR CRS. In November, TDL developers installed the remaining set of AWIPS 4.2 alpha applications there. These included forecast verification, the daily climate summary formatter, and applications to prepare Watch, Warnings, Advisories, and Statements. Support received from the Pittsburgh office in testing new AWIPS software has helped us immensely.

In December, our developers installed the same set of AWIPS 4.2 applications at the forecast office in Charleston, West Virginia. The installation of TDL alpha applications at the Charleston office enabled them to move forecast operations with ICWF from legacy machines onto AWIPS. It will also facilitate the testing of intersite capabilities for CRS via the AWIPS WAN.

WFO Local Applications Development Support Task (E. J. Mandel): The kickoff meeting for the Local Applications Working Group was held on December 1-2, 1998 in Silver Spring, Maryland. The group will serve as a forum for information exchange among member organizations and will oversee and make recommendations concerning all aspects of AWIPS local software development, approval, dissemination, management, and support. Representatives from Eastern, Central, Southern, Western regions and the Offices of Hydrology, Systems Development, and Systems Operations, and NCEP were in attendance.

Topics addressed included Release 4.2 capabilities; importance of having zero critical AFOS applications running on AFOS come June 1999; the current Applications Integrated Framework Manual (AIFM) and planned/suggested improvements; identification of requirements and guidelines to support local software development (e.g., system resources, software development tools, and APIs); policy recommendations concerning the management of local applications used on AWIPS; and the use of webpages and listservers to facilitate management and sharing of local applications and technical information. The next meeting will be held in January, 1999.