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  • P-surge results based on NHC advisories with hurricane watches and/or warnings for the contiguous US during 2008. In addition, the archive contains the cases which NHC chose to run when there were no hurricane watches or warnings, specifically: Fay (15 and 20), Hanna (39, 40, and 41), Ike (31, 32, 33, 38, and 50), Kyle (13), and Omar (7 and 8).

    These results used the "2008 error statistics" which for the along-track and cross-track errors are 85% of the five year mean errors from 2003-2007 inside a box defined by 10-45N, 60-100W. The 85% is to account for the finding that forecast tracks of storms with winds of 50 knots or higher are more accurate. The reason for the box was to sample storms near the rawinsonde network. The intensity errors are the five year mean errors for storms with winds of 50 knots or higher in the entire Atlantic basin.

    2008 error statistics:

    Error Type 0-h 12-h 24-h 36-h 48-h 72-h 96-h 120-h
    Cross-track (nm) 3.1 15.5 26.7 35.4 45.6 66.5 103.0 133.3
    Along-track (nm) 3.6 18.0 31.1 44.3 56.3 83.0 113.6 152.0
    Intensity (kt) 2.4 7.8 11.4 13.6 14.8 16.0 17.5 21.0


  • The P-surge results based on the 12, 24, 36, and 48-h NHC advisories prior to US landfall for the following hurricanes: Humberto (2007), Wilma (2005), Katrina (2005), Dennis (2005), Jeanne (2004), Ivan (2004), Frances (2004), Charley (2004), Isabel (2003), Lili (2002), Floyd (1999), and Georges (1998). These advisories were run using 2005 error statistics calculated for the average cross-track, along-track, and intensity errors for all tropical cyclones from 1997-2004. The value used was the 2005 point on the regression curve made from the yearly average errors from 1997-2004.

    2005 error statistics:

    Error Type 0-h 12-h 24-h 36-h 48-h 72-h 96-h 120-h
    Cross-track (nm) 5.9 20.0 34.8 49.7 62.9 88.6 122.2 162.1
    Along-track (nm) 7.9 23.4 40.2 57.3 78.0 114.5 136.5 178.5
    Intensity (kt) 2.4 6.2 9.3 11.7 14.0 17.4 19.4 22.4



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    Page Author: arthur.taylor@noaa.gov
    Page last Modified: May 26, 2009.
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