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Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge Exceedance Product Description

Product Description Documents

1. Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge Probabilities:
   http://products.weather.gov/PDD/PSURGE_2011.pdf.
   
2. Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge Exceedance Products:
   PDDEXP_PSURGE_exceedance_2011_signed032511.pdf.
   

Contents:

1. Overview
2. Product Description (for 10-90% exceedance)
3. Format & Science Basis
4. Availability
5. Examples

3. Format & Science Basis

The Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge Exceedance products are a statistical output from of an ensemble of SLOSH model runs. All ensemble members are based on the current NHC's tropical cyclone advisory. Ensemble members take into account historical error characteristics by varying input parameters such as forward speed, cross track location, radius of maximum wind, and hurricane intensity. For example, the 10 percent exceedance height is the storm surge height, above normal tide levels, such that there is a 10 percent chance of exceeding it.