ࡱ>    !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~Root Entryb.@p@~w˿SlideShowU˿U˿Main PerfectOffice_MAIN& oO { Original Slide Show Oh+'Oh+'0 L h tDavid Kitzmiller      !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~      !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~      !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~WPCoO ~ T:_;v/jjbEmKmQm+S]2|"XXXX'3XXXX3' > 7!4  !" $gi'l*+,-.T2567WPC ((2  I  .3  TechniquesDevelopmentLaboratory:Short-rangeAutomatedGuidanceForConvectiveWeather....2  1  .3  c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@-Whatiscurrentlyoperational--Whatisunderdevelopment--Skillofproducts-c&d9 Z6Times New Roman RegularcxxxDavidH.KitzmillerLocalApplicationsBranchTechniquesDevelopmentLaboratoryNationalWeatherServiceNOAAJune,2000-#-2  I  .3  Personnel....2  1  .3  LocalApplicationsBranch,TechniquesDevelopmentLaboratory..2  A  .3  StephanB.Smith,ActingChief,Managerofthunderstormdetectiontask..2  A  .3  DavidKitzmiller,Manager,0-3hsevereweatherpredictiontask....2  1  .3  FredSamplatsky,LyndonStateCollege..2  A  .3  M.ThomasFiliaggi,MichaelChurma-SCANimplementationandmaintenance("(2  I  .3  TDLProducts..2  A  .3  Thunderstormdetection/nowcastproducts....2  1  .3  Thunderstormdetectionproduct....2  1  .3  Severeweather(hail,damagingwind)probabilisticnowcastproducts....2  1  .3  0-1hquantitativerainfallforecasts....2  1  .3  OperationalinAWIPS/SCAN..2  A  .3  0-3hConvectiveweatherguidanceproducts....2  1  .3  Quantitativerainfallforecasts....2  1  .3  CGlightningprobabilities....2  1  .3  Severelocalstormprobabilities....2  1  .3  Basedonremotesensorobservations,extrapolative-statisticalmodels,operationalNWPmodels....2  1  .3  Toberuncentrally,disseminatednationally..2  A  .3  Radarmosaicproducts....2  1  .3  10-km,7-levelnationalmosaicbasedonRCMs(operational)....2  1  .3  Reflectivity,VIL,rainfall,othermosaicsindevelopment-# -2  I  .3  SevereLocalStormProbabilityNowcasts....2  1  .3  OperationalinAWIPS..2  A  .3  Probabilityofgeneralsevereweatherandprobabilityoflargehail..2  A  .3  Probabilitiesvalidin28km-squareregion,currenttimeto+20minutes..2  A  .3  BasedonVIL,stormenvironmentcharacteristics(freezinglevel,700-mbwindspeed,TotalTotals)..2  A  .3  Basedon classicalstatisticalmethod-#    -2  I  .3  0-1HourRainfallAmountForecasts....2  1  .3  OperationalinAWIPS..2  A  .3  Probabilitiesofrainfallexceeding0.1,0.25,0.5,0.75inchin1hour,for4-kmgridboxes;categoricalrainfallamountforecast..2  A  .3  Forecastsdisplayedasisoplethsofprobability,andisohyets,inlocalradarumbrella..2  A  .3  Basedonextrapolative-statisticalmodel,withextrapolationforecastsofrainfallamount,time-averagedVIL,andmaximumVILasstatisticalpredictors("(2  I  .3  BasisofExtrapolative-StatisticalMethod..2  A  .3  Foreachofmanyhistoricalcases:....2  1  .3  c&d9 Z6Times New Roman RegularcExtrapolationmodeloperatedonradar-rainrate,lightningstrikerate,satelliteIRfields....2  1  .3  c&d9 Z6Times New Roman RegularcStatisticalpredictorsareextractedfromforecasts:......2  a  .3  Time-averagedrainrate,IRtemperature,ltgstrikerate......2  a  .3  Maximumrainrate,ltgstrikerate,minimumIRtemperature....2  1  .3  c&d9 Z6Times New Roman RegularcPredictorsarecollatedwithverifiyinggroundtruthobservationsforthatcasec&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularcxxx..2  A  .3  Regressionisusedtofindbestpredictorcombinationrelatingextrapolationforecaststoobservations..2  A  .3  Regressionequationsareappliedtoreal-timeextrapolationforecaststoobtainextrapolative-statisticalforecasts..2  A  .3  MethodisaformofModelOutputStatisticsapproach-#  -2  I  .3  0-3HourRainfallAmountForecasts....2  1  .3  Prototyperunninginrealtime,forecastsavailableonWWW..2  A  .3  Probabilitiesofradar-estimatedrainfallexceeding0.1,0.5,1,2inchesinnext3hours;categoricalrainfallforecast..2  A  .3  Forecastsareforpeakamountwithin40-kmgridboxes..2  A  .3  Basedonextrapolative-statisticalmodelutilizingradarreflectivity,satelliteIR,CGlightningstrikerateaspredictors;alsostability,humidity,precippredictorsfromNGM..2  A  .3  SkillsignificantlyhigherthanthatofRUC-23-hprecip,especiallyinwarmseason1' 12  I  .3  Verificationof0-3HCategoricalForecasts....2  1  .3  Forecastsvalid2100-0000UTC1' 12  I  .3  VerificationforCategorical0-3HForecasts....2  1  .3  Forecastsvalid2100-0000UTC,1999warmseason1'  12  I  .3  VerificationforCategorical0-3HForecasts....2  1  .3  Forecastsvalid0600-0900UTC,1999warmseason1'  12  I  .3  VerificationforRUC-23-6HForecasts....2  1  .3  Forecastsvalid2100-0000UTC,1999warmseason-#-2  I  .3  0-3HourCGLightningForecasts....2  1  .3  Prototyperunninginrealtime,forecastsavailableonWWW..2  A  .3  Probabilityof2+CGlightningstrikesinthenext3hours..2  A  .3  Forecastsvalidwithin40-kmgridboxes..2  A  .3  Basedonextrapolative-statisticalmodelutilizingradarreflectivity,satelliteIR,CGlightningstrikerateaspredictors;alsostability,humiditypredictorsfromNGM..2  A  .3  Radarandlightningobservationsaboutequallyimportantinforecasts("()(2  I  .3  Furtherdetailson0-3HForecasts.....2  A  .3  Development(training)datasettakenfromperiod1996-1998..2  A  .3  Developedseparateprobabilityequationsforwarm(April-September)andcoolseasons..2  A  .3  Forwarmseason,8starttimesdevelopedtocapturediurnalinfluences..2  A  .3  Extrapolationmodelusesmean700-500mbwindvectorfromNGM6-hor12-hforecast..2  A  .3  Inprototypemode,newforecastsgeneratedatabout00:50eachhourforperiodstartingattopofnexthour'"# '2  I  .3  Sample0-3HLightningProbabilityField....2  1  .3  1500-1800UTC,30May2000'./ '2  I  .3  Observed3-HCGlightning....2  1  .3  1500-1800UTC30May20002($%22  I  .3  VerificationScores:0-3HLightning....2  1  .3  Forforecastsvalid2100-0000UTC,1999warmseason6,&' 62  I  .3  Reliabilityof0-3HLightningForecasts....2  1  .3  Forforecastsvalid2100-0000UTC,1999warmseason("01(2  I  .3  Shortcomings/Improvements..2  A  .3  Extrapolationmodeldoesnotdevelopnewconvection....2  1  .3  ProbabilitiesdoreflectIRsignaturesofdevelopingcumulus....2  1  .3  NWPinputprecipitationhasasubstantialeffectincoolseason..2  A  .3  Regionalizationneeded:developseparateequationsfordifferentclimaticregimes..2  A  .3  Needimprovedradarmosaic-currentmosaicis10-km,7-levelcompositefromRadarCodedMessages-# -2  I  .3  0-3HourSevereLocalStormForecasts....2  1  .3  Currentlyunderdevelopment..2  A  .3  Probabilityofanysevereweather,orlargehail,ordamagingwinds,in0-3Hperiod,conditionalonoccurrenceofCGlightning..2  A  .3  Forecastsvalidwithin40-kmgridboxes..2  A  .3  Basedonextrapolative-statisticalmodelutilizingradarreflectivity,CGlightningstrikerateaspredictors;alsostability,humidity,wind,andwindshearpredictorsfromEtamodel..2  A  .3  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