ࡱ>    !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~Root Entryb.@p@~w˿SlideShowU˿U˿Main PerfectOffice_MAIN& oO { Original Slide Show Oh+'Oh+'0 L h tDavid Kitzmiller      !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~      !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~      !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~WPCoO ~ T:_;v/jjbEmKmQm+S]2|"XXXX'3XXXX3' > 7!4  !" $gi'l*+,-.T2567WPC ((2  I  .3  TechniquesDevelopmentLaboratory:Short-rangeAutomatedGuidanceForConvectiveWeather....2  1  .3  c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@-Whatiscurrentlyoperational--Whatisunderdevelopment--Skillofproducts-c&d9 Z6Times New Roman RegularcxxxDavidH.KitzmillerLocalApplicationsBranchTechniquesDevelopmentLaboratoryNationalWeatherServiceNOAAJune,2000-#-2  I  .3  Personnel....2  1  .3  LocalApplicationsBranch,TechniquesDevelopmentLaboratory..2  A  .3  StephanB.Smith,ActingChief,Managerofthunderstormdetectiontask..2  A  .3  DavidKitzmiller,Manager,0-3hsevereweatherpredictiontask....2  1  .3  FredSamplatsky,LyndonStateCollege..2  A  .3  M.ThomasFiliaggi,MichaelChurma-SCANimplementationandmaintenance("(2  I  .3  TDLProducts..2  A  .3  Thunderstormdetection/nowcastproducts....2  1  .3  Thunderstormdetectionproduct....2  1  .3  Severeweather(hail,damagingwind)probabilisticnowcastproducts....2  1  .3  0-1hquantitativerainfallforecasts....2  1  .3  OperationalinAWIPS/SCAN..2  A  .3  0-3hConvectiveweatherguidanceproducts....2  1  .3  Quantitativerainfallforecasts....2  1  .3  CGlightningprobabilities....2  1  .3  Severelocalstormprobabilities....2  1  .3  Basedonremotesensorobservations,extrapolative-statisticalmodels,operationalNWPmodels....2  1  .3  Toberuncentrally,disseminatednationally..2  A  .3  Radarmosaicproducts....2  1  .3  10-km,7-levelnationalmosaicbasedonRCMs(operational)....2  1  .3  Reflectivity,VIL,rainfall,othermosaicsindevelopment-# -2  I  .3  SevereLocalStormProbabilityNowcasts....2  1  .3  OperationalinAWIPS..2  A  .3  Probabilityofgeneralsevereweatherandprobabilityoflargehail..2  A  .3  Probabilitiesvalidin28km-squareregion,currenttimeto+20minutes..2  A  .3  BasedonVIL,stormenvironmentcharacteristics(freezinglevel,700-mbwindspeed,TotalTotals)..2  A  .3  Basedon classicalstatisticalmethod-#    -2  I  .3  0-1HourRainfallAmountForecasts....2  1  .3  OperationalinAWIPS..2  A  .3  Probabilitiesofrainfallexceeding0.1,0.25,0.5,0.75inchin1hour,for4-kmgridboxes;categoricalrainfallamountforecast..2  A  .3  Forecastsdisplayedasisoplethsofprobability,andisohyets,inlocalradarumbrella..2  A  .3  Basedonextrapolative-statisticalmodel,withextrapolationforecastsofrainfallamount,time-averagedVIL,andmaximumVILasstatisticalpredictors("(2  I  .3  BasisofExtrapolative-StatisticalMethod..2  A  .3  Foreachofmanyhistoricalcases:....2  1  .3  c&d9 Z6Times New Roman RegularcExtrapolationmodeloperatedonradar-rainrate,lightningstrikerate,satelliteIRfields....2  1  .3  c&d9 Z6Times New Roman RegularcStatisticalpredictorsareextractedfromforecasts:......2  a  .3  Time-averagedrainrate,IRtemperature,ltgstrikerate......2  a  .3  Maximumrainrate,ltgstrikerate,minimumIRtemperature....2  1  .3  c&d9 Z6Times New Roman RegularcPredictorsarecollatedwithverifiyinggroundtruthobservationsforthatcasec&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularcxxx..2  A  .3  Regressionisusedtofindbestpredictorcombinationrelatingextrapolationforecaststoobservations..2  A  .3  Regressionequationsareappliedtoreal-timeextrapolationforecaststoobtainextrapolative-statisticalforecasts..2  A  .3  MethodisaformofModelOutputStatisticsapproach-#  -2  I  .3  0-3HourRainfallAmountForecasts....2  1  .3  Prototyperunninginrealtime,forecastsavailableonWWW..2  A  .3  Probabilitiesofradar-estimatedrainfallexceeding0.1,0.5,1,2inchesinnext3hours;categoricalrainfallforecast..2  A  .3  Forecastsareforpeakamountwithin40-kmgridboxes..2  A  .3  Basedonextrapolative-statisticalmodelutilizingradarreflectivity,satelliteIR,CGlightningstrikerateaspredictors;alsostability,humidity,precippredictorsfromNGM..2  A  .3  SkillsignificantlyhigherthanthatofRUC-23-hprecip,especiallyinwarmseason1' 12  I  .3  Verificationof0-3HCategoricalForecasts....2  1  .3  Forecastsvalid2100-0000UTC1' 12  I  .3  VerificationforCategorical0-3HForecasts....2  1  .3  Forecastsvalid2100-0000UTC,1999warmseason1'  12  I  .3  VerificationforCategorical0-3HForecasts....2  1  .3  Forecastsvalid0600-0900UTC,1999warmseason1'  12  I  .3  VerificationforRUC-23-6HForecasts....2  1  .3  Forecastsvalid2100-0000UTC,1999warmseason-#-2  I  .3  0-3HourCGLightningForecasts....2  1  .3  Prototyperunninginrealtime,forecastsavailableonWWW..2  A  .3  Probabilityof2+CGlightningstrikesinthenext3hours..2  A  .3  Forecastsvalidwithin40-kmgridboxes..2  A  .3  Basedonextrapolative-statisticalmodelutilizingradarreflectivity,satelliteIR,CGlightningstrikerateaspredictors;alsostability,humiditypredictorsfromNGM..2  A  .3  Radarandlightningobservationsaboutequallyimportantinforecasts("()(2  I  .3  Furtherdetailson0-3HForecasts.....2  A  .3  Development(training)datasettakenfromperiod1996-1998..2  A  .3  Developedseparateprobabilityequationsforwarm(April-September)andcoolseasons..2  A  .3  Forwarmseason,8starttimesdevelopedtocapturediurnalinfluences..2  A  .3  Extrapolationmodelusesmean700-500mbwindvectorfromNGM6-hor12-hforecast..2  A  .3  Inprototypemode,newforecastsgeneratedatabout00:50eachhourforperiodstartingattopofnexthour'"# '2  I  .3  Sample0-3HLightningProbabilityField....2  1  .3  1500-1800UTC,30May2000'./ '2  I  .3  Observed3-HCGlightning....2  1  .3  1500-1800UTC30May20002($%22  I  .3  VerificationScores:0-3HLightning....2  1  .3  Forforecastsvalid2100-0000UTC,1999warmseason6,&' 62  I  .3  Reliabilityof0-3HLightningForecasts....2  1  .3  Forforecastsvalid2100-0000UTC,1999warmseason("01(2  I  .3  Shortcomings/Improvements..2  A  .3  Extrapolationmodeldoesnotdevelopnewconvection....2  1  .3  ProbabilitiesdoreflectIRsignaturesofdevelopingcumulus....2  1  .3  NWPinputprecipitationhasasubstantialeffectincoolseason..2  A  .3  Regionalizationneeded:developseparateequationsfordifferentclimaticregimes..2  A  .3  Needimprovedradarmosaic-currentmosaicis10-km,7-levelcompositefromRadarCodedMessages-# -2  I  .3  0-3HourSevereLocalStormForecasts....2  1  .3  Currentlyunderdevelopment..2  A  .3  Probabilityofanysevereweather,orlargehail,ordamagingwinds,in0-3Hperiod,conditionalonoccurrenceofCGlightning..2  A  .3  Forecastsvalidwithin40-kmgridboxes..2  A  .3  Basedonextrapolative-statisticalmodelutilizingradarreflectivity,CGlightningstrikerateaspredictors;alsostability,humidity,wind,andwindshearpredictorsfromEtamodel..2  A  .3  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 ! 1  ! 1  ! 1  ! 1  ! 1  42a=bIbTc`ckdwdeefff2fW ` ` (/ Z6Times New Roman Regular +MMMM  9@MMf fW (/ Z6Times New Roman Regular +MM  9@ZM&f fW ee(/ Z6Times New Roman Regular +ٝ$Y  1W ee(/ Z6Times New Roman Regular +$Y$Y  1W ee(/ Z6Times New Roman Regular +ٝ$Y  1C ee-D AZ"Arial Regular +$Y  1C -D AZ"Arial Regular +f2f Y3 1ZC -D AZ"Arial Regular +f2f  1C -D AZ"Arial Regular +MM  1C ee-D AZ"Arial Regular + f2ff2f  1  C -D AZ"Arial Regular +   1  C -D AZ"Arial Regular +    1 Zf C -D AZ"Arial Regular +    1  C -D AZ"Arial Regular +    1  X= // ?Title of ChartSubtitleLegendd ADk@< 0.1.1-.49.5-.991-1.992+Total2+# 6`bx.@1-1.99#  Z @.5-.99# >eLN1@.1-.49# "hJ @< 0.1" SG %,5G@Total" u G4L  qR3  ʤ w0-.)*+%f2f'1f3 \w  w ]  ^ w w _ w  ` .%1 a "O-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  <0.1.%f2f1f bww c.%1 dbO-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  .1-.49.%f2f1f ew//w f/.%1 gzO-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  .5-.99.%f2f1f h/w/G$G$w i/G$.%1 j"O-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  1-1.99.%f2f1f kG$wG$_*_*w lG$_*.%1 m&'O-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  2+.%f2f1f n_*w_*w0w0w o_*w0.%1 p<,.O-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  Total.%f2f1f qw w .%1 r[O-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  2+.%f2f1f s  ww t  w.%1 uO-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  54.%f2f1f vww.%1 wO-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  96.%f2f1f xw/w/.%1 yO-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  98.%f2f1f z//wG$wG$.%1 {;"#O-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  120.%f2f1f |G$G$w_*w_*.%1 }(*O-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  46.%f2f1f ~_*_*ww0ww0.%1 k.*0O-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  414.%f2f1f Z  Z.%1  O-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  1-1.99.%f2f1f  Z Z  Z .%1 O-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  142.%f2f1f ZZ.%1  O-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  274.%f2f1f Z//Z.%1 #O-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  240.%f2f1f /Z/G$G$Z.%1 ;"#O-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  288.%f2f1f G$ZG$_*_*Z.%1 (*O-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  90.%f2f1f _*Z_*w0w0Z.%1 -*0O-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  1034.%f2f1f Z Z .%1 O-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  .5-.99.%f2f1f   ZZ   Z.%1 O-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  318.%f2f1f ZZ.%1  O-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  500.%f2f1f Z/Z/.%1 #O-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  357.%f2f1f //ZG$ZG$.%1 ;"#O-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  332.%f2f1f G$G$Z_*Z_*.%1 (*O-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  78.%f2f1f _*_*Zw0Zw0.%1 -*0O-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  1585.%f2f1f =  =.%1 inO-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  .1-.49.%f2f1f  = =  = .%1 TinO-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  1056.%f2f1f ==.%1 linO-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  1314.%f2f1f =//=.%1 #inO-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  616.%f2f1f /=/G$G$=.%1 ;"i#nO-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  419.%f2f1f G$=G$_*_*=.%1 (i*nO-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  74.%f2f1f _*=_*w0w0=.%1 -i*0nO-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  3479.%f2f1f = = .%1 zO-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  <0.1.%f2f1f   ==   =.%1 O-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  33619.%f2f1f ==.%1 lO-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  2988.%f2f1f =/=/.%1 #O-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  741.%f2f1f //=G$=G$.%1 ;"#O-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  293.%f2f1f G$G$=_*=_*.%1 (*O-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  44.%f2f1f _*_*=w0=w0.%1 <-*0O-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  37685.%f2f1f    .%1 LzQO-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  Total.%f2f1f       .%1 LQO-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  35189.%f2f1f   .%1 ¤lLQO-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  5172.%f2f1f ä // .%1 ĤLQO-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  2052.%f2f1f Ť/ /G$G$ .%1 Ƥ!L#QO-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  1452.%f2f1f ǤG$ G$_*_* .%1 ȤS(L*QO-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  332.%f2f1f ɤ_* _*w0w0 WPC&XX81%XX81%Ǟ3'XXXXKKKK9j"GCS/FS/F#?Y@4@#?Y@4@#???cc 9MM@M&f f 9MM@M&f f MMMM MMMM MMMM22226ffffffֿp= ף(\?TQ `! 9@  `! 9@f  `! 9@f  `! 9@f   `! 9@ff f  `! 9@f   `! 9@f̲ ̲  `! 9@f   ! 1   ! 1    ! 1    ! 1    ! 1    ! 1   ! 1  ! 1  ! 1  ! 1  ! 1?  ! 1  ! 1  ! 1  ! 1  ! 1  42a=bIbTc`ckdwdeefff2fW ` ` (/ Z6Times New Roman Regular +MMMM  9@MMf fW (/ Z6Times New Roman Regular +MM  9@ZM&f fW ee(/ Z6Times New Roman Regular +ٝ$Y  1W ee(/ Z6Times New Roman Regular +$Y$Y  1W ee(/ Z6Times New Roman Regular +ٝ$Y  1C ee-D AZ"Arial Regular +$Y  1C -D AZ"Arial Regular +f2f Y3 1ZC -D AZ"Arial Regular +f2f  1C -D AZ"Arial Regular +MM  1C ee-D AZ"Arial Regular + f2ff2f  1  C -D AZ"Arial Regular +   1  C -D AZ"Arial Regular +    1 Zf C -D AZ"Arial Regular +    1  C -D AZ"Arial Regular +    1   = // ?Title of ChartSubtitleLegendd uv ' p= ף?Q? fffffU@ 6@ M S/F.'1 M&f 3f s/s sF)+13 FF    )+%1  3 `(  o o( 1  3 (  +1f3 `{   { 13LL `o     { 1 `o o   { { .+%13 `  O-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  0.77   .%1 ff 3f ` JJ 1 sM` sM 3 sM  +1f3 `V  V13LL `J   V 1 `J JVV .+%13 `bO-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  0.43  ).+%1 c(c(+1f3 `o())o(13LL `c())))o(1 `c(c())o(o(.+%13 `{()O-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  84.1  9.+%1 +1f3 `--13LL `99--1 `9-.+%13 `!yO-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @  22.8.+%MM13 | s.%1MM3 CsOO-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @MM  0.%MM13  s .%1MM3  COO-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @MM  20.%MM13 s.%1MM3 ECOO-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @MM  40.%MM13 GsG.%1MM3 COO-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @MM  60.%MM13 ž&s&.%1MM3 Þ &CJ'OO-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @MM  80.%MM13 Ğ/s/.%1MM3 Ş .C/OO-D AZ"Arial RegularO        @MM  100WPC_6XX81%XX81%3'XXXXKKKK9j"GI/GI/F#???#?Y@4@#?$@@cc 9MM@M&f f 9MM@M&f f MMMM MMMM MMMM22226ffffffֿp= ף(\?TQ `" 9@f  `" 9@f  `" 9@f  `! 9@f   `! 9@ff f  `! 9@f   `! 9@f̲ ̲  `! 9@f   ! 1   ! 1    ! 1    ! 1    ! 1    ! 1   ! 1  ! 1  ! 1  ! 1  ! 1?  ! 1  ! 1  ! 1  ! 1  ! 1  42a=bIbTc`ckdwdeefff2fW ` ` &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +MMMM  9@MMf fW &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +MM  9@ZM&f fW xx&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +  1W ee&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +$Y$Y  1W xx&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +  1C ee, \AZ"Arial Regular +$Y  1C , \AZ"Arial Regular +f2f Y3 1ZC , \AZ"Arial Regular +f2f  1C , \AZ"Arial Regular +MM  1C ee, \AZ"Arial Regular + f2ff2f  1  C , \AZ"Arial Regular +   1  C , \AZ"Arial Regular +    1 Zf C , \AZ"Arial Regular +    1  C , \AZ"Arial Regular +    1   = // Title of ChartSubtitleSCOREYES/NO CONVERSION THRESHOLD, %Legendd #|k  #(-2@POD! +?7A`?~jt? rh?(\?K7A?Cl?Zd;?zG?/$?Q?@FAR! V-? rh?Dl?-?K7?Zd;O?uV?V-?K?y&1?㥛 ?@CSI! K7?&1?Cl?T㥛 ?S㥛?J +?Pn?\(\?V-?5^I ?Mb?  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REL. FREQ., %FORECASTED PROBABILITY, %Legendd w {Gz@Gz,@Cl8@zGaA@{GZF@LK@(\5P@HzR@Q5U@= ףp]X@@Perfect! {Gz@Gz,@Cl8@zGaA@{GZF@LK@(\5P@HzR@Q5U@= ףp]X@@Actual! zG?= ףp0@ ףp==@= ףp]C@zGJ@Q^P@ףp= Q@(\?R@zGS@RU@  x/.'1 M&f 3f '  '  '  . +13 ' b.b ' . ' !.! ' . 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