This is the AVN MOS Temperature Development Test Results Page

Development was done by using data from 335 stations; 300 were from the contiguous U.S., 30 from Alaska, and 5 from Puerto Rico and Hawaii. This was a single station development.

TESTING SAMPLES
The full cool season sample was from:

The independent sample consisted of : The dependent sample consisted of: The full warm season sample was from:
  • April 1, 1997, to October 15, 1997
  • March 16, 1998, to October 15, 1998
The independent sample consisted of :
  • the last 15 days of April, May, June, July, August, and September 1998
The dependent sample consisted of:
  • the remainder of the test sample listed above

PREDICTANDS
2-m temperature
  • Valid every 3 hours from 6 to 72 hours after initial model time
dew point
  • Valid every 3 hours from 6 to 72 hours after initial model time
daytime maximum temperature
  • Is defined as 0700LST - 1900LST
  • Valid approximately 24, 48, and 72 hours after 0000 UTC and 36 and 60 hours after 1200 UTC
nighttime minimuum temperature
  • Is defined as 1900LST - 0800LST
  • Valid approximately 36 and 60 hours after 0000 UTC and 24, 48, and 72 hours after 1200 UTC
PREDICTORS
Model Predictors
  • Forecasts of temperature and dew point at isobaric levels in the lower troposphere, and low-level thicknesses
  • Sea level pressure tendency
  • Relative humidity and thermal stability over layers in the lower troposphere
  • Mean relative humidity from the surface to approximately 500 mb
  • Precipitation amount
  • u- and v- wind components, wind speed, and vertical velocity at isobaric levels in the lower troposphere
Observed Predictors
  • 2-m temperature and dew point observed at initial model time + 3 hours, that is, 0300 or 1500 UTC; observations are potential predictors for the 6- through 39-h forecast projections.
Geoclimatic Predictors
  • The sine and cosine day of the year and twice day of the year were used.
VERIFICATION MEASURES
Max/Min Temperature, 2-m temperature and 2-m dew point
  • Mean Absolute Error
OVERALL RESULTS
Conclusion
  • The AVN MOS max/min temperature and 2-m temperature guidance were comparable in skill through 48 hours to the NGM MOS guidance. Beyond 48 hours, the AVN MOS were generally more accurate than the NGM MOS. Generally, the MOS guidance significantly improved over the direct model output.
  • The AVN MOS dew point guidance was generally more accurate than the NGM MOS or the direct model output.

To view the test stations used click on Description of AVN MOS Test Stations

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