AVN MOS WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED GUIDANCE

February 3, 2000



PREDICTANDS:

Wind speed valid every 3 hours from 6 to 72 hours after initial model time of 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC.

All predictands are valid on the hour and were taken from TDL's archive of the hourly METAR data. The u- and v-wind components were computed from the surface wind direction. These wind observations represent a 2-minute average wind speed and direction at the 10-m level.



PREDICTORS:

FINAL DEVELOPMENTAL SAMPLE:

TEST SAMPLES: The warm and cool season samples were divided into two parts to assess the quality of the new guidance, namely, a dependent sample used to develop test forecast equations, and an independent sample on which to evaluate the forecasts made by the test equations. We chose a 90-day independent test period, that is,

VERIFICATION RESULTS: