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WindGuidancePredictands..2  A  .3  WindSpeed,u-andv-windcomponents....2  1  .3   @Validevery3hoursfrom6to60hoursafterinitialmodeltimeof0000or1200UTC  @..2  A  .3  Winddirectioncalculatedfromu-andv-windcomponents( (2  I  .3  WindGuidancePredictors..2  A  .3  ModelForecasts....2  1  .3   @u-andv-componentsandwindspeedat10mandatisobariclevelsinlowertroposphere....2  1  .3   @Thermalstabilityandrelativehumidityoverlayersinlowertroposphere....2  1  .3   @Relativevorticity,divergence,andverticalvelocityinlowertroposphere  @..2  A  .3  Observationsat01UTCor13UTC....2  1  .3   @Usedforthe6-through15-hprojections  @..2  A  .3  GeoclimaticVariables....2  1  .3   @Sine/Cosinedayofyearandtwicedayofyear  @#  #2  I  .3  WindGuidanceTesting..2  A  .3  Developtestequations..2  A  .3  Makeforecastsonindependentdata..2  A  .3  Verify~300stationsclusteredbyregions....2  1  .3  NEUS,NCUS,NWUS,SEUS,SCUS,SWUS# #2  I  .3  TestingSamples..2  A  .3  Coolseason(Oct.-Mar.)Developmentaldata....2  1  .3   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Zf 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ f" dddddd$   %20.+%133f $|/c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @3f  Q Qc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@ CAFTI-NOVEMBER7,2001http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/index.htm WPCXX81%XX81%3'XXXX,,,,9j"2/R/#R/#W &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +MMW &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +MMW &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +MMW &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +MMW &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +MMW &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +MM)?  Zf 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ f" dddddd$   R/#-)*+%M'13M 0 / #c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc     M   @M  Q Qc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc ETAMOSGUIDANCE.+%13f `R//RWPCXX81%XX81%3'XXXX,,,,9j"=>/>/W @@&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +3&MW @@&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +3&MW @@&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +3&MW @@&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +3&MW @@&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +3&MW @@&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +3&M)?  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LimitedSpatialCoverage(1200+CONUSSites )fc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @  /  c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @0M.. Alphanumeric/BUFRProducts WPCXX81%XX81%(3'XXXX,,,,9"#2.R/#R/#W &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +MMW &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +MMW &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +MMW &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +MMW &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +MMW &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +MM)?  Zf 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ f" dddddd$  #R/#%M'13M !0 / #c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc     M   @M  Q Qc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc ETA-BASEDMOSGUIDANCE.+%13f `"R//RWPCXX81%XX81%(3'XXXX,,,,9"'&u/"u/"W @@&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +W xx&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +W &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +W &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +W &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +W &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +9/!!!!!!  ZM 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ f" dddddd$   'u/".%13 &+:/c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc        @a /!!!!!!ac&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @        @  /  c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @0M.. Max/Mintemperature fc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @  /  c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @0M.. Temperature/dewpoint fc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @  /  c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @0M.. Winddirection/speed        @        @ fc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @  /  c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @0M.. PoP/QPF        @        @ fc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @  /  c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @0M.. Totalskycover fc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @  /  c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @0M.. Thunderstorms/severeweather WPCXX81%XX81%(3'XXXX,,,,9"%=>/>/W @@&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +3&MW @@&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +3&MW @@&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +3&MW @@&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +3&MW @@&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +3&MW @@&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +3&M)?  Zf 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ f" dddddd$   %>/.+%313&M $5>F/c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@     3   @&M  Q Qc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@ FirstPhase WPCXX81%XX81%3'XXXX,,,,9j"z2R/#R/#W &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +MMW &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +MMW &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +MMW &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +MMW &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +MMW &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +MM)?  Zf 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ f" dddddd$   zR/#-)*+%M'13M {0 / #c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc     M   @M  Q Qc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc ETA-BASEDMOSGUIDANCE.+%13f `|R//RWPCXX81%XX81%3'XXXX,,,,9j"|=>/>/W @@&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +3&MW @@&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +3&MW @@&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +3&MW @@&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +3&MW @@&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +3&MW @@&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +3&M)?  Zf 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ f" dddddd$   |>/.+%313&M ~5>F/c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@     3   @&M  Q Qc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@ FirstPhase-ModelArchive WPCfXX81%XX81%3'XXXX,,,,9j"&u/"u/"W @@&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +W xx&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +W &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +W &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +W &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +W &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +9/!!!!!!  ZM 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ f" dddddd$   u/".%13 +:/ c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc        @a /!!!!!!ac&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @        @  /  c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @0M.. Spatial resolutionof90.75kmat60$N fc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @  /  c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @0M.. Temporalresolutionof6-Hto48Hours fc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @  /  c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @0M.. CONUScoverage fc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @  /  c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @0M.. 00Z/12Zforecastcycles fc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @  /  c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @0M.. DatafromApril1997on WPCXX81%XX81%/3'XXXX,,,,9"*2/R/#R/#W &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +MMW &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +MMW &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +MMW &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +MMW &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +MMW &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +MM)?  Zf 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ f" dddddd$  *R/#%M'13M (0 / #c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc     M   @M  Q Qc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc ETA-BASEDMOSGUIDANCE.+%13f `)R//RWPCXX81%XX81%/3'XXXX,,,,9",=>/>/W @@&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +3&MW @@&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +3&MW @@&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +3&MW @@&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +3&MW @@&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +3&MW @@&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +3&M)?  Zf 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ f" dddddd$   ,>/.+%313&M +5>F/c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@     3   @&M  Q Qc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@ FuturePlans WPC#XX81%XX81%/3'XXXX,,,,9".&u /"u /"W @@&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +W xx&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +W &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +W &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +W &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +W &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +9/!!!!!!  ZM 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ f" dddddd$   .u /".%13 -+ :/| c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc        @a /!!!!!!ac&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @        @  /  c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @0M.. Spring2002-temperature/dewpoint/skycover fc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @  /  c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @0M.. Spring2002-thunderstorms/severestorms fc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @  /  c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @0M.. Fall2002-Otherelements? fc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @  /  c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @0M.. NewEtaarchive-retrospectivelytoDec.1999 WPCXX81%XX81%3'XXXX,,,,9j"20R/#R/#W &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +MMW &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +MMW &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +MMW &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +MMW &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +MMW &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +MM)?  Zf 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ f" dddddd$   R/#-.)*%M'153M e0 / #c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc     M   @M  Q Qc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc ETA-BASEDMOSGUIDANCE.+%13f `fR//RWPCXX81%XX81%3'XXXX,,,,9j"=>/>/W @@@&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +3&MW @@@&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +3&MW @@@&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +3&MW @@@&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +3&MW @@@&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +3&MW @@@&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +3&M)?  Zf 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ f" dddddd$   >/.+%313&M 5>F/c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@     3   @&M  Q Qc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@ SampleMessage WPCXX81%XX81%3'XXXX,,,,9j"X..{.{O  ?a 9Z+.Courier New Regular +W RR&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +W RR&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +W RR&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +W RR&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +W RR&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +)?  ZM 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ f" dddddd$   .{%3 +.GH[?a 9Z+.Courier New Regular[           @  Q Q[?a 9Z+.Courier New Regular[    KALBETAMOSGUIDANCE10/24/20000000UTC f  [?a 9Z+.Courier New Regular[    DT/OCT24/OCT25/OCT26 f  [?a 9Z+.Courier New Regular[    HR06091215182100030609121518210003060912 f  [?a 9Z+.Courier New Regular[    X/N49306143 f  [?a 9Z+.Courier New Regular[    TMP32303041474738343232344758605450484749 f  [?a 9Z+.Courier New Regular[    DPT25232324232324262828303234373941434345 f  [?a 9Z+.Courier New Regular[    CLDCLCLCLCLCLCLCLCLSCSCCLCLCLCLCLCLCLSCSC f  [?a 9Z+.Courier New Regular[    WDR32323231313232000000361516151616161618 f  [?a 9Z+.Courier New Regular[    WSP08080811120902000000010410080406080611 f  [?a 9Z+.Courier New Regular[    P060003500914 f  [?a 9Z+.Courier New Regular[    P1206017 f  [?a 9Z+.Courier New Regular[    Q06000000000 f  [?a 9Z+.Courier New Regular[    Q120000 f  [?a 9Z+.Courier New Regular[    T060/70/10/20/42/11/12/118/34/2 f  [?a 9Z+.Courier New Regular[    T120/70/34/214/4 WPCXX81%XX81%&3'XXXX,,,,9"#2R/#R/#W &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +MMW &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +MMW &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +MMW &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +MMW &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +MMW &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +MM)?  Zf 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ f" dddddd$   #R/#.)*+%M'13M !i/ #c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc     M   @M  Q Qc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc WindGuidanceOverallResults.+%13f `"R//6R6WPC}XX81%XX81%&3'XXXX,,,,9"% -/S-/SW @@&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +W xx&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +W &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +W &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +W &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +W &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +9/!!!!!!  ZM 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ f" dddddd$   %-/S+13 $. c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc        @a /!!!!!!ac&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @        @  /  c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @0M..Forhighwindevents,PODofETAMOSwindspeedissignificantlyhigherthanNGMMOSandAVNMOS;AVNMOSthreatscoreisstillhighestfc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @  /  c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @0M..ETAMOSwinddirectionissuperiortoNGMMOSandcomparabletoAVNMOSfc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @  /  c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @0M..From51-60-h,ETAMOSwindguidanceuses48-hvariablesand,therefore,AVNMOSissuperiorbeyond48-h;ETAMOSissuperiortoNGMMOSWPCXX81%XX81%03'XXXX,,,,9"-2-R/#R/#W &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +MMW &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +MMW &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +MMW &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +MMW &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +MMW &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +MM)?  Zf 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ f" dddddd$  -R/#%M'13M +0 / #c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc     M   @M  Q Qc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc FutureWork.+%13f `,R//RWPCXX81%XX81%03'XXXX,,,,9"/&u /"u /"W @@&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +W xx&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +W &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +W &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +W &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +W &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +9/!!!!!!  ZM 4 @ @ @ @ @ @ f" dddddd$   /u /"+13 .+ :/ c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc        @a /!!!!!!ac&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @        @  /  c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @0M..Coolseasondevelopmentfor4seasons(1997-2001)fc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @  /  c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @0M..Guidancedevelopedfor~1279CONUSsitesfc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @  /  c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc@@@        @0M..Warmseasondevelopmenttobeginshortly.I>IHKGZ%KWPCIXX81%XX81%S3'XXXXKKKK9j"1//#?433333??#?Y@4@#?4@@cc 1ZM 1ZM   22226ffffffֿp= ף(\?TQ ! 1 ! 3 ! 3 ! 13   ! 1  ! 1  ! 1  ! 1f  ! 1   ! 1    ! 1    ! 1    ! 1    ! 1   ! 1  ! 1  ! 1  ! 1  ! 1?  ! 1  ! 1  ! 1  ! 1  ! 1  4&M'a")u3*D,U-f/w023&MW ` ` &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +  1ZMW &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +  1ZMW ee&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +  1W ee&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +  1W ee&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +  1C ee, \AZ"Arial Regular +  1C , \AZ"Arial Regular +  1ZM#PtC , \AZ"Arial Regular +  1C , \AZ"Arial Regular +  1C ee, \AZ"Arial Regular +   1  C , \AZ"Arial Regular +   1  C , \AZ"Arial Regular +    1 ZM C , \AZ"Arial Regular +    1  C , \AZ"Arial Regular +    1   ; // Title of ChartSubtitleProbability of DetectionProjection (Hours)Legendd v?  !$'*-0369<@ETA MOS! /$?~jt?NbX9?X9v?`"?d;O?n?X9v?Mb?$C?bX9?}?5^I?Gz?%C?x&1?S㥛?Cl?S㥛?-?@NGM MOS! S?$C?/$?Cl?Zd;?L7A`?d;O?(\?RQ?RQ?Cl?MbX?1Zd? rh?}?5^I?/$?"~j?ʡE?A`"?@AVN MOS! X9v?;On?)\(?MbX?(\?Mb?p= ף?V-?L7A`?v/?J +?'1Z?sh|??m?x&1?S㥛?B`"?Q?n?  1/.%'13M r  r /r +13 / •/ Õ'/' ĕ/ ŕJ/J ƕ/) Ǖ7 r 7 r  ȕO r O r  ɕgr gr  ʕr r  ˕r r  ̕r r  ͕r r  Εr r  ϕr r  Еr r  ѕ&r &r  ҕ>!r >!r  ӕV#r V#r  ԕn%r n%r  Օ'r 'r  ֕)r )r  ו+r +r  ؕ-r -r  ٕ/r /r   핥r .)+%13 ڕr r  ە r  r    ܕ r . r .   ݕr Fr FEE ޕr ^r ^ ߕr vr v__ 5r r /5/ Mr r M er r <e< }r r d}d r r  r  r   !r "r "! #r 6$r 6$# %r N&r N&(%(  (r f(r f(- (- $*r }*r }* $*  <,r ,r ,<, T.r .r .T.  r /p+1 r X r X ;;  r p r p . . . r r N. N Fr r F ^r r ^ vr r pvp r r  r r tt r r TT r /r /TT r Gr G    r _ r _ h h "r w"r w";"; 6$r $r $6$ N&r &r &N& f(r (r (f( }*r *r *L}*L ,r ,r ,l ,l  .r /r /+.+  X r `/1 X r r vX v p r r p   r r   r r  r r ww r )r ) r Ar A    r Yr Y  r qr q::  /r r M/M  Gr r NGN  _ r r _  w"r "r "w" $r $r $5$5 &r 'r '& (r )r )( *r 0+r 0+* ,r H-r H-, /r `/r `//.%1 " c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc!!!        @  Projection(Hours).:ZUY~ c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc!!!        @  ProbabilityofDetection.13 + r + .13  4 O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  6.13 C r C .13   4 O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  9.13 [ r [ .13   4 O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  12.13 sr s .13  4 O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  15.13  r  .13 ! 64 O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  18.13 "r  .13 # N4 O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  21.13 $r  .13 % f4 O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  24.13 &r  .13 '( ~4 O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  27.13 (r  .13 )@ 4 O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  30.13 *r  .13 +X 4 O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  33.13 ,r  .13 -o 4 O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  36.13 .2 r 2 .13 / 4 O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  39.13 0J"r J" .13 1! "4 O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  42.13 2b$r b$ .13 3# %4 O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  45.13 4z&r z& .13 5% %'4 O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  48.13 6(r ( .13 7' =)4 O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  51.13 8*r * .13 9) U+4 O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  54.13 :,r , .13 ;, m-4 O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  57.13 <.r . .13 =/. /4 O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  60.13 >r pr .13 ?a  O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  0.13 @p.13 ArU {O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  0.1.13 Bp.13 Cr O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  0.2.13 D'p'.13 ErxO, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  0.3.13 Fp.13 Gr 0O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  0.4.13 HJpJ.13 IrO, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  0.5.13 Jp.13 Kr-SO, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  0.6  RA ).+%1 LA A   .+%1 MO, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  ETAMOS.+%1 N  .+%1 O~7O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  NGMMOS.+%1 PC!C!"".+%1 Q#)O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  AVNMOSWPCHXX81%XX81%3'XXXXKKKK9j 1/I/H#?433333??#?Y@4@#?4@@cc 1ZM 1ZM   22226ffffffֿp= ף(\?TQ ! 1 ! 1 ! 1 ! 13   ! 1  ! 1  ! 1  ! 1f  ! 1   ! 1    ! 1    ! 1    ! 1    ! 1   ! 1  ! 1  ! 1  ! 1  ! 1?  ! 1  ! 1  ! 1  ! 1  ! 1  4&M'a")u3*D,U-f/w023&MW ` ` &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +  1ZMW &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +  1ZMW ee&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +  1W ee&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +  1W ee&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +  1C ee, \AZ"Arial Regular +  1C , \AZ"Arial Regular +  1ZM#P DC , \AZ"Arial Regular +  1C , \AZ"Arial Regular +  1C ee, \AZ"Arial Regular +   1  C , \AZ"Arial Regular +   1  C , \AZ"Arial Regular +    1 ZM C , \AZ"Arial Regular +    1  C , \AZ"Arial Regular +    1   ; // {Title of ChartSubtitle Threat ScoreProjection (Hours)Legendd xB  !$'*-0369<@ETA MOS! Q?+?K?zG?v?rh|?K7A`?ʡE?h|?5?n?~jt?#~j?9v?NbX9?Q?ʡE?~jt?h|?5?L7A`?@NGM MOS! x&1?w/?oʡ?y&1? rh?Q?HzG?y&1?)\(?"~j?Pn?Q?-?NbX9?h|?5?~jt?Mb?{Gz?V-?@AVN MOS! ʡE?MbX?Zd;O?K7?K7?x&?I +?ˡE?V-?S㥛? r?|?5^?1Zd?)\(? rh?J +?rh|?S㥻?HzG?  1/I.%'13M *  + / +13 ,v/v -/ .T/T // 01/1 1/) 2    3    4   5   6   7   8   9% %  :7 7  ;H H  <Z Z  =l! l!  >~# ~#  ?% %  @' '  A) )  B+ +  C- -  D/ /   X  .)+%13 E  s  s   F,   ,  G>   >  HP  ?P? Ib  b Jt  t K  '' L   M   N   O % %ll P 7  7  Q! I" I"&!& R$ [$ [$k$k S& m& m&& T&( ~( ~(C&(C U8* * *8* VJ, , ,J, W\. . .=\.=  ls  /+1 Ys   9s 9 Z     [   @ @ \   ]  DD ^ $ $ _ 6 6 ` H Hzz a Z Zaa b l lnn c% } }N%N d7   7  eI" " "I" f[$ $ $k[$k gm& & &m& h~( ( (~( i* * *$*$ j, , ,, k. / /.    e/1 m  #  # j j n  5  5   o  G G, , p Y Y q k k r$ } }$ s6  6 tH  H uZ   Z  vl  l w}  R}R x     y" " "q"q z$ % %$ {& ' '& |( /) /)( }* A+ A+* ~, S- S-H,H  / e/ e/ /.%1 T * c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc        @  Projection(Hours).:Z 0 n c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc        @  ThreatScore.13   _ .13 I O, \AZ"Arial RegularO...        @  6.13   _ .13 [  O, \AZ"Arial RegularO...        @  9.13   _ .13  g O, \AZ"Arial RegularO...        @  12.13  _ .13 / x O, \AZ"Arial RegularO...        @  15.13  _ .13 A  O, \AZ"Arial RegularO...        @  18.13  _ .13 S  O, \AZ"Arial RegularO...        @  21.13   _ .13 e  O, \AZ"Arial RegularO...        @  24.13  _ .13 w  O, \AZ"Arial RegularO...        @  27.13 . ._ .13   O, \AZ"Arial RegularO...        @  30.13 @ @_ .13   O, \AZ"Arial RegularO...        @  33.13 Q Q_ .13   O, \AZ"Arial RegularO...        @  36.13 c  c _ .13  ! O, \AZ"Arial RegularO...        @  39.13 u" u"_ .13 ! # O, \AZ"Arial RegularO...        @  42.13 $ $_ .13 # +% O, \AZ"Arial RegularO...        @  45.13 & &_ .13 % =' O, \AZ"Arial RegularO...        @  48.13 ( (_ .13 ( O) O, \AZ"Arial RegularO...        @  51.13 * *_ .13 * `+ O, \AZ"Arial RegularO...        @  54.13 , ,_ .13 ), r- O, \AZ"Arial RegularO...        @  57.13 . ._ .13 ;. / O, \AZ"Arial RegularO...        @  60.13   .13 _ z O, \AZ"Arial RegularO...        @  0.13 vv.13 bO, \AZ"Arial RegularO...        @  0.05.13 .13 =XO, \AZ"Arial RegularO...        @  0.1.13 TT.13 bO, \AZ"Arial RegularO...        @  0.15.13 .13 5O, \AZ"Arial RegularO...        @  0.2.13 11.13 bO, \AZ"Arial RegularO...        @  0.25.13 .13 O, \AZ"Arial RegularO...        @  0.3   JJ(.+%1  J ^ ^ J.+%1 J&eO, \AZ"Arial RegularO...        @  ETAMOS.+%1 JppJ.+%1 J8eO, \AZ"Arial RegularO...        @  NGMMOS.+%1 1 J1 !!J.+%1 "JJ(eO, \AZ"Arial RegularO...        @  AVNMOSWPCKXX81%XX81%ϕ3'XXXXKKKK9j 1w/Pw/P#?D@@#?Y@4@#?4@@cc 1ZM 1ZM   22226ffffffֿp= ף(\?TQ ! 1 ! 3 ! 3 ! 13   ! 1  ! 1  ! 1  ! 1f  ! 1   ! 1    ! 1    ! 1    ! 1    ! 1   ! 1  ! 1  ! 1  ! 1  ! 1?  ! 1  ! 1  ! 1  ! 1  ! 1  4&M'a")u3*D,U-f/w023&MW ` ` &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +  1ZMW &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +  1ZMW ee&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +  1W ee&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +  1W ee&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +  1C ee, \AZ"Arial Regular +  1C , \AZ"Arial Regular +  1ZM#P#AC , \AZ"Arial Regular +      !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_  1C , \AZ"Arial Regular +  1C ee, \AZ"Arial Regular +   1  C , \AZ"Arial Regular +   1  C , \AZ"Arial Regular +    1 ZM C , \AZ"Arial Regular +    1  C , \AZ"Arial Regular +    1   ; // }Title of ChartSubtitle MAE (degrees)Projection (Hours)Legendd xB  !$'*-0369<@ETA MOS! Dli/@|?5~0@5^I 0@y&1l/@x&11@Cl'3@$c4@x3@3@7A`p3@V-3@-3@xf5@A ףp=J8@A`8@Q<@33333?@9vA@@NGM MOS! `"۹0@ʡE2@/ݤ2@ ףp=2@v4@`"6@n7@jt6@ 6@SC7@Qk7@}?5^ 7@Cl9@Q;@q= ףp=@v<@lq>@-@@ rB@@AVN MOS! ?5^I-@!rhm0@^I 0@X9v0@ 22@;O3@333334@9v3@Gz3@x3@M3@"~j3@M5@m27@m8@/$8@J +68@V-}8@K7A8@  1w/P.%'13M 5+  6+ /+ +13 7/ 8 /  9/ :/ ;/ </ =/ >/) ? + +  @ + +  A&+ &+  BC+ C+  C_+ _+  D{+ {+  E+ +  F+ +  G+ +  H+ +  I+ +  J$!+ $!+  K@#+ @#+  L\%+ \%+  Mx'+ x'+  N)+ )+  O++ ++  P-+ -+  Q/+ /+   eY+ .)+%13 RY+ + =Y= Su + + u  T + + [ [ U+ + >> V+ $+ $ W+ @+ @ X+ \+ \   Y+ x+ x Z:+ + : [V+ + V \s+ + s ]+ +  ^!+ "+ "q!q _#+ !$+ !$# `%+ =&+ =&% a'+ Y(+ Y(' b*+ v*+ v** c8,+ ,+ ,x8,x dT.+ .+ .T.  y+ /(+1 f+ +  g + ) + ) Y Y h + E + E ` ` i+ b+ bbb j$+ ~+ ~.$. k@+ + @ l\+ + ]\] mx+ + x n+ +    o+ + )) p+ '+ '88 q+ C + C  r"+ _"+ _"" s!$+ {$+ {$!$ t=&+ &+ &=& uY(+ (+ (AY(A vv*+ *+ *v* w,+ ,+ ,, x.+ /+ /(.(   + b/1 z + g + g   {) + + )  |E + + E  }b+ + fbf ~~+ + 4~4 + +  + + ++ + ,+ , + H+ H  + e+ e  '+ + ' C + + C  _"+ "+ "_" {$+ $+ $#{$# &+ &+ && (+ )+ )z(z *+ *++ *+* ,+ F-+ F-, /+ b/+ b//.%1   c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc###        @  Projection(Hours).:Z x\ c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc###        @  MAE(degrees).13 + | .13  ; O, \AZ"Arial RegularOXXX        @  6.13  + | .13  W O, \AZ"Arial RegularOXXX        @  9.13  +  | .13 m O, \AZ"Arial RegularOXXX        @  12.13 5+ 5| .13   O, \AZ"Arial RegularOXXX        @  15.13 Q+ Q| .13   O, \AZ"Arial RegularOXXX        @  18.13 m+ m| .13   O, \AZ"Arial RegularOXXX        @  21.13 + | .13  4 O, \AZ"Arial RegularOXXX        @  24.13 + | .13  P O, \AZ"Arial RegularOXXX        @  27.13 + | .13  l O, \AZ"Arial RegularOXXX        @  30.13 + | .13 3  O, \AZ"Arial RegularOXXX        @  33.13 + | .13 O  O, \AZ"Arial RegularOXXX        @  36.13  +  | .13 k O, \AZ"Arial RegularOXXX        @  39.13 2"+ 2"| .13 ! " O, \AZ"Arial RegularOXXX        @  42.13 N$+ N$| .13 # $ O, \AZ"Arial RegularOXXX        @  45.13 j&+ j&| .13 % ' O, \AZ"Arial RegularOXXX        @  48.13 (+ (| .13 ' 1) O, \AZ"Arial RegularOXXX        @  51.13 *+ *| .13 ) N+ O, \AZ"Arial RegularOXXX        @  54.13 ,+ ,| .13 , j- O, \AZ"Arial RegularOXXX        @  57.13 .+ .| .13 0. / O, \AZ"Arial RegularOXXX        @  60.13 + #+ .13 |  O, \AZ"Arial RegularOXXX        @  0.13 #.13 kO, \AZ"Arial RegularOXXX        @  5.13  # .13 uZO, \AZ"Arial RegularOXXX        @  10.13 #.13 uHnO, \AZ"Arial RegularOXXX        @  15.13 #.13 u7]O, \AZ"Arial RegularOXXX        @  20.13 #.13 u&LO, \AZ"Arial RegularOXXX        @  25.13 •#.13 Õu;O, \AZ"Arial RegularOXXX        @  30.13 ĕ#.13 ŕu)O, \AZ"Arial RegularOXXX        @  35.13 ƕ#.13 ǕuO, \AZ"Arial RegularOXXX        @  40  ΕP {).+%1 ȕP {P   {.+%1 ɕ {O, \AZ"Arial RegularOXXX        @  ETAMOS.+%1 ʕ{=={.+%1 ˕{bO, \AZ"Arial RegularOXXX        @  NGMMOS.+%1 ̕n!{n!""{.+%1 ͕*${)O, \AZ"Arial RegularOXXX        @  AVNMOSWPCGXX81%XX81%3'XXXXKKKK9j 1Y/QY/P#???#?Y@4@#?4@@cc 1ZM 1ZM   22226ffffffֿp= ף(\?TQ ! 1 ! 3 ! 3 ! 13   ! 1  ! 1  ! 1  ! 1f  ! 1   ! 1    ! 1    ! 1    ! 1    ! 1   ! 1  ! 1  ! 1  ! 1  ! 1?  ! 1  ! 1  ! 1  ! 1  ! 1  4&M'a")u3*D,U-f/w023&MW ` ` &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +  1ZMW &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +  1ZMW ee&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +  1W ee&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +  1W ee&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +  1C ee, \AZ"Arial Regular +  1C , \AZ"Arial Regular +  1ZM#P%;C , \AZ"Arial Regular +  1C , \AZ"Arial Regular +  1C ee, \AZ"Arial Regular +   1  C , \AZ"Arial Regular +   1  C , \AZ"Arial Regular +    1 ZM C , \AZ"Arial Regular +    1  C , \AZ"Arial Regular +    1  ! ; // Title of ChartSubtitleCumulative Relative FrequencyProjection (Hours)Legendd xB  !$'*-0369<@ETA MOS! RQ?x&1?T㥛 ?"~j?$C?|?5^?jt?|?5^?Q?ffffff?I +?(\?K7A`?~jt?MbX9?Zd;?7A`?Q?rh|?@NGM MOS! +?bX9? +?d;O??E?T㥛 ?NbX9?%C?{Gz?Pn? r?^I +?d;O?V-?Q?HzG?}?5^I?v?@AVN MOS! %C?`?ףp= ?+? ףp= ?h|?5?m?M?;On?tV?tV?I +?Zd;O?Pn?)\(?RQ?RQ?jt?@?  1Y/Q.%'13M #   $  / +13 % / & / ' / ( / ) /) *# #  +< <  ,V V  -o o  .   /   0   1   2   3   4   59! 9!  6R# R#  7k% k%  8' '  9) )  :+ +  ;- -  </ /   P .)+%13 =   >     ?     @ 5 5 A O Ovv B h h   C(  ( DA   A  EZ  6Z6 Fs  s G   H  ## I! " "! J# 2$ 2$8#8 K% K& K&% L ( d( d( ( M$* }* }*g$*g N=, , ,=, OV. . .V.  d /+1 Q C C  R ] ] > > S v v E E T5  '5' UO  O Vh  VhV W   X  GG Y  44 Z & &,, [ ? ?00 \ Y Y )) ]" r" r"" ^2$ $ $M2$M _K& & &K& `d( ( (d( a}* * *}* b, , ,;,; c. / /.  xC c/1 eC C  f] ]  gv v  h   i  \\ j   k 4 4 l M M m  g g  n&  & o?  ? pY Y  qr" " "r" r$ $ $0$0 s& & && t( ) )( u* 0+ 0+* v, I- I-, w / c/ c/ /.%1 yJ \ c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc        @  Projection(Hours).:zZ {~"c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc        @  CumulativeRelativeFrequency.13 {  . .13 | l O, \AZ"Arial RegularO999        @  6.13 }0 0 . .13 ~ O, \AZ"Arial RegularO999        @  9.13 I I . .13  O, \AZ"Arial RegularO999        @  12.13 b b. .13   O, \AZ"Arial RegularO999        @  15.13 { {. .13   O, \AZ"Arial RegularO999        @  18.13  . .13  9 O, \AZ"Arial RegularO999        @  21.13  . .13   R O, \AZ"Arial RegularO999        @  24.13  . .13 " k O, \AZ"Arial RegularO999        @  27.13  . .13 ;  O, \AZ"Arial RegularO999        @  30.13  . .13 U  O, \AZ"Arial RegularO999        @  33.13  . .13 n  O, \AZ"Arial RegularO999        @  36.13 , , . .13  O, \AZ"Arial RegularO999        @  39.13 E" E". .13 ! " O, \AZ"Arial RegularO999        @  42.13 ^$ ^$. .13 # % O, \AZ"Arial RegularO999        @  45.13 x& x&. .13 % ' O, \AZ"Arial RegularO999        @  48.13 ( (. .13 ' 5) O, \AZ"Arial RegularO999        @  51.13 * *. .13 * N+ O, \AZ"Arial RegularO999        @  54.13 , ,. .13 , g- O, \AZ"Arial RegularO999        @  57.13 . .. .13 7. / O, \AZ"Arial RegularO999        @  60.13   b .13 b. IO, \AZ"Arial RegularO999        @  0.13  b.13 u% @O, \AZ"Arial RegularO999        @  0.2.13  b.13 u 7O, \AZ"Arial RegularO999        @  0.4.13  b.13 u -O, \AZ"Arial RegularO999        @  0.6.13  b.13 u  $O, \AZ"Arial RegularO999        @  0.8.13  b.13 b O, \AZ"Arial RegularO999        @  1  > (g .+%1 > > g g .+%1 r1 O, \AZ"Arial RegularO999        @  ETAMOS.+%1 kkg g .+%1  1 O, \AZ"Arial RegularO999        @  NGMMOS.+%1   g !g !.+%1 :#(1 O, \AZ"Arial RegularO999        @  AVNMOSWPCKXX81%XX81%3'XXXXKKKK9j 1@/ @/ #?@?#?Y@4@#?4@@cc 1ZM 1ZM   22226ffffffֿp= ף(\?TQ ! 1 ! 3 ! 3 ! 13   ! 1  ! 1  ! 1  ! 1f  ! 1   ! 1    ! 1    ! 1    ! 1    ! 1   ! 1  ! 1  ! 1  ! 1  ! 1?  ! 1  ! 1  ! 1  ! 1  ! 1  4&M'a")u3*D,U-f/w023&MW ` ` &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +  1ZMW &d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +  1ZMW ee&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +  1W ee&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +  1W ee&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regular +  1C ee, \AZ"Arial Regular +  1C , \AZ"Arial Regular +  1ZM#PC , \AZ"Arial Regular +  1C , \AZ"Arial Regular +  1C ee, \AZ"Arial Regular +   1  C , \AZ"Arial Regular +   1  C , \AZ"Arial Regular +    1 ZM C , \AZ"Arial Regular +    1  C , \AZ"Arial Regular +    1   ; // uTitle of ChartSubtitle MAE (kts)Projection (Hours)Legendd yC  !$'*-0369<@ETA MOS! (\@@Q@\(\@ffffff@@Gz@ffffff@ףp= @)\(@Gz@ףp= @q= ףp @ףp= @ffffff @ffffff @ @(\ @ ףp= @@NGM MOS! Q@ ףp= @HzG@@)\(@RQ@Q@@\(\@Q@Gz@zG@p= ף @ ףp= @= ףp= @P@)\( @zG @Gz @@AVN MOS! Gz@Q@HzG@p= ף@ףp= @ffffff@Gz@Q@HzG@333333@Q@Q@= ףp=@Q@(\@Gz@q= ףp@q= ףp@@  1@/ +%'13M `" "^ a" / +13 b"/ c"/ d"/ e"/ f"/ g"/ h"q/q i"^/^) j: :  kR R  lj j  m   n   o   p   q   r   s   t) )  uA! A!  vY# Y#  wq% q%  x' '  y) )  z+ +  {- -  |/ /    .)+%13 }     ~   \ \  1 1    I I55  a a   y y  8  8 P  P h  php        ff ! !" !",!, # 9$ 9$]#] % Q& Q&% ( i( i(( '* * *'* ?, , ,S?,S W. . .W.   /I+1  [ [    s s   1 41 4 I  I a  a y  y   zz   RR   55  2 2HH  J J\\  b b   !" z" z"!" 9$ $ $9$ Q& & &Q& i( ( (zi(z * * ** , , ,, . / /I.I  [ c/1 [ [  s *s *  = =      yy  , ,  D Dee  \ \RR  t t44 2  *2* J   J  b b  z" " "z" $ $ $$ & ' 'f&f ( ) )\(\ * 3+ 3+>*> , K- K->,>  / c/ c/R /R.%1 W % g c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc!!!        @  Projection(Hours).:Z J> Zc&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc!!!        @  MAE(kts).13 . . E .13  O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  6.13 F F E .13  O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  9.13 ^ ^ E .13   O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  12.13 v vE .13 ™ ! O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  15.13 Ù E .13 ę 9 O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  18.13 ř E .13 ƙ Q O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  21.13 Ǚ E .13 ș i O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  24.13 ə E .13 ʙ+  O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  27.13 ˙ E .13 ̙C  O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  30.13 ͙ E .13 Ι[  O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  33.13 ϙ E .13 Йr  O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  36.13 љ5 5 E .13 ҙ O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  39.13 әM" M"E .13 ԙ! " O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  42.13 ՙe$ e$E .13 ֙# % O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  45.13 י}& }&E .13 ؙ% (' O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  48.13 ٙ( (E .13 ڙ' @) O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  51.13 ۙ* *E .13 ܙ* X+ O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  54.13 ݙ, ,E .13 ޙ, p- O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  57.13 ߙ. .E .13 2. / O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  60.13 " s .13 dE kO, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  0.13 "s.13 u2XO, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  0.5.13 "s.13 d FO, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  1.13 "s.13 u 3O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  1.5.13 "s.13 d O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  2.13 "s.13 u O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  2.5.13 "s.13 dO, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  3.13 "qsq.13 uO, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  3.5.13 "^s^.13 dO, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  4   )@ .+%1   @ { @ { .+%1  O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  ETAMOS.+%1 @ @ .+%1 Z O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  NGMMOS.+%1 !!@ }"@ }".+%1 #) O, \AZ"Arial RegularOWWW        @  AVNMOSWPCXX81%N )3'XXXXKKKK ?"""333DDDUUUfffwwwMf33MMffM&f3@MYfs3Mf̙ٳMMff3Mf&M3f@MYfs3MfMf33MMffM&f3@MYfs3MfMMff3Mf&M3f@MYfs3MfMf33MMff&M3f@MYfs3Mf̙ٳMMff3MfM&f3@MYfs3MfpJ&T0Z4`8f<k@pEzJ̉]٘p槂Ħϰֿfffffffffrffffrffffff9%'1 _N 4c&d9 Z6Times New Roman Regularc        @(IndependentdatatakenfromOctober2000thruMarch2001)SlideShowggMain  Original Slide Show