This is the ETA MOS Wind Development Test Results Page

Development was done by using data from 300 stations from the contiguous U.S. This was a single station development.

TESTING SAMPLES
The full cool season sample was from:

The independent sample consisted of : The dependent sample consisted of:
PREDICTANDS
Speed
  • Valid every 3 hours from 6 to 60 hours after initial model time
u- and v- components
  • Valid every 3 hours from 6 to 60 hours after initial model time
PREDICTORS
Model Predictors
  • Forecasts of u- and v- wind components and wind speed at 10m and at isobaric levels in the lower troposphere
  • Thermal stability and relative humidity over layers in the lower tropospherse
  • Relative vorticity, divergence, and vertical velocity at isobaric levels in the lower troposphere
Observed Predictors
  • Surface u- and v- components and wind speed observed at initial model time +1 hours, i.e., 0100 or 1300 UTC. Observations are potential predictors for the 6- through 15-h forecasts projections.
Geoclimatic Predictors
  • The sine and cosine day of the year and twice day of the year were used.
POST-PROCESSING FORECASTS
Wind Speed
  • Wind speed forecasts were inflated for each individual station in order to better forecast higher wind speeds
Wind Direction
  • Wind direction is forecast by using the u- and v- wind components
VERIFICATION MEASURES
Wind Speed
  • Mean Absolute Error of all forecasts
  • Heidke skill score(based on categories of 0-12, 13-17, 18-22, 23-27, 28-32 and > 32 knots)
  • Probability of Detection of winds greater than 22 knots
Wind Direction
  • Mean Absolute Error when the observed wind >= 10 knots
  • Cumulative Relative Frequency of forecasts with errors of 30 degrees or less, when the observed wind is >= 10 knots

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