MOS - Objective Interpretation of NWP Model Output

Contents

1. Model Output Statistics (MOS) -Objective Interpretation of NWP
   
   
2. OUTLINE
   
   
3. WHY STATISTICAL GUIDANCE?
   
   
4. MRF MOS Max Temp vs. DMO
   
   
5. A SIMPLE STATISTICAL MODEL
   
   
6. MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS (MOS)
   
   
7. MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS (MOS)
   
   
8. MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS (MOS)
   
   
9. AVN MOS GUIDANCE MESSAGE
   
   
10. AVN / Eta MOS vs. NGM MOS
    
    
11. Slide 11
    
    
12. Slide 12
    
    
13. MRF MOS GUIDANCE MESSAGE
    
    
14. MOS LINEAR REGRESSION
    
    
15. MOS LINEAR REGRESSION
    
    
16. REDUCTION OF VARIANCE
    
    
17. MOS LINEAR REGRESSION
    
    
18. MOS LINEAR REGRESSION
    
    
19. MOS LINEAR REGRESSION
    
    
20. MOS LINEAR REGRESSION
    
    
21. MOS LINEAR REGRESSION
    
    
22. EXAMPLE REGRESSION EQUATIONS
    
    
23. If the predictand is BINARY,
    
    
24. Making a PROBABILISTIC statement...
    
    
25. DEFINITION of PROBABILITY
    
    
26. DEVELOPMENTAL CONSIDERATIONS
    
    
27. PREDICTAND DEFINITION
    
    
28. "APPROPRIATE" PREDICTORS
    
    
29. "REAL" REGRESSION EQUATIONS
    
    
30. MOS LINEAR REGRESSION
    
    
31. AVN MOS Cool Season PoP/QPF Regions
    
    
32. MOS BEST CATEGORY SELECTION
    
    
33. Slide 33
    
    
34. Cool Season 3-h Tmp Verif.
    
    
35. Max Temperature Verification
    
    
36. The Future of MOS
    
    
37. The Future of MOS
    
    
38. MRF MOS Day 3 Maximum Temperature
    
    
39. AVN MOS 6-hr Probability of Precipitation (PoP)
    
    
40. The Future of MOS
    
    
41. The Future of MOS
    
    
42. Slide 42
    
    
43. Slide 43
    
    
44. Slide 44
    
    
45. The Future of MOS
    
    
46. So You Wanna Be a MOS Developer?
    
    
47. REFERENCES
    
    

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Last updated:
December 11, 2003 (Thursday)

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