MOS - Objective Interpretation of NWP Model Output
Model Output Statistics (MOS) -Objective Interpretation of NWP
OUTLINE
WHY STATISTICAL GUIDANCE?
MRF MOS Max Temp vs. DMO
A SIMPLE STATISTICAL MODEL
MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS (MOS)
MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS (MOS)
MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS (MOS)
AVN MOS GUIDANCE MESSAGE
AVN / Eta MOS vs. NGM MOS
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MRF MOS GUIDANCE MESSAGE
MOS LINEAR REGRESSION
MOS LINEAR REGRESSION
REDUCTION OF VARIANCE
MOS LINEAR REGRESSION
MOS LINEAR REGRESSION
MOS LINEAR REGRESSION
MOS LINEAR REGRESSION
MOS LINEAR REGRESSION
EXAMPLE REGRESSION EQUATIONS
If the predictand is BINARY,
Making a PROBABILISTIC statement...
DEFINITION of PROBABILITY
DEVELOPMENTAL CONSIDERATIONS
PREDICTAND DEFINITION
"APPROPRIATE" PREDICTORS
"REAL" REGRESSION EQUATIONS
MOS LINEAR REGRESSION
AVN MOS Cool Season PoP/QPF Regions
MOS BEST CATEGORY SELECTION
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Cool Season 3-h Tmp Verif.
Max Temperature Verification
The Future of MOS
The Future of MOS
MRF MOS Day 3 Maximum Temperature
AVN MOS 6-hr Probability of Precipitation (PoP)
The Future of MOS
The Future of MOS
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The Future of MOS
So You Wanna Be a MOS Developer?
REFERENCES