Changes to the Extended-Range GFS MOS Guidance
Effective December 16, 2003


Included below are sample messages showing the new format for the MEX and Canadian extended-range GFS MOS
text products. These format changes will take effect with the 0000 UTC cycle on December 17, 2003.

The header lines of the MEX bulletins for each site will change from
"MRF MOS GUIDANCE" to read
"GFSX MOS GUIDANCE".
The header line of the Canadian max/min temperature product will change from
"MRF-BASED STATISTICAL MAX/MIN GUIDANCE" to read
"GFSX-BASED STATISTICAL MAX/MIN GUIDANCE".
Please note that we are not changing the position of the date or cycle. They will remain in the same columns that they are currently in.

In addition, snowfall amount guidance will be added to the extended-range MEX bulletin.
This consists of a categorical forecast of snowfall amount for a 24-hour period, ending nominally at 0000 UTC. The categories are as follows:
0 = no snow or a trace;
1 = > trace to < 2 inches;
2 = 2 to < 4 inches;
4 = 4 to < 6 inches;
6 = 6 to < 8 inches;
8 = 8 inches or more:

All changes are in bold


Sample 0000 UTC Extended-range GFS MOS text message

 KDCA   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  10/10/2003  0000 UTC
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192
 FRI  10| SAT 11| SUN 12| MON 13| TUE 14| WED 15| THU 16| FRI 17 CLIMO
 X/N  71| 58  73| 58  74| 58  76| 57  70| 55  64| 51  65| 48  64 51 69
 TMP  65| 60  66| 59  68| 60  69| 59  63| 57  57| 53  58| 50  58
 DPT  61| 57  59| 58  60| 58  59| 55  57| 54  50| 44  43| 43  45
 CLD  OV| OV  OV| OV  PC| PC  PC| OV  OV| OV  OV| CL  CL| CL  CL
 WND  14| 13  14| 11  11| 10  11|  8  11| 12  15| 13  15| 11  12
 P12  24| 38  25| 17   8|  6   7| 18  24| 45  53| 21  13| 14  12 19 16
 P24    |     38|     17|     11|     39|     62|     22|     24    25
 Q12   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  3   3|  0    |
 Q24    |      0|      0|      0|      1|      4|       |
 T12   0|  0   0|  2   2|  0   0|  2   6| 10   5|  1   0|  2   2
 T24    |  1    |  2    |  2    |  3    | 12    |  8    |  2
 PZP   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   1|  0   0|  0   0|  1   2|  0   1
 PSN   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  1   0|  0   0|  0   0
 PRS   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  1   1|  3   4|  1   3
 TYP   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R
 SNW    |      0|      0|      0|      0|       |       | 


Sample 0000 UTC Extended-range GFS MOS Canadian max/min text message

1 GFSX-BASED STATISTICAL MAX/MIN GUIDANCE 10/10/03 0000 UTC FRI 10| SAT 11| SUN 12| MON 13| TUE 14| WED 15| THU 16| FRI 17| CLIMO CYEG 51| 29 50| 28 50| 29 46| 26 45| 23 39| 22 42| 23 45| CYEN 55| 33 56| 30 57| 34 50| 29 48| 25 46| 26 45| 27 53| CYFC 63| 46 74| 52 73| 50 69| 45 62| 44 57| 42 55| 36 54| CYHE 54| 43 53| 46 53| 47 58| 43 52| 45 54| 46 55| 47 58| CYKA 59| 41 57| 45 54| 38 55| 36 49| 38 53| 38 54| 41 58| CYQD 61| 40 52| 40 51| 35 47| 29 40| 28 38| 26 38| 28 39| (message continues on...)


These changes are outlined in NWS Technical Information Notice (TIN) #03-43

* To view other MOS products

* Go back to the Statistical Modeling Branch HomePage