NOUS41 KWBC 201625
PNSWSH
Technical
Implementation Notice 15-09
National Weather
Service Headquarters Washington DC
1130 AM EST Fri
Feb 20 2015
To: Subscribers:
-Family of Services
-NOAA Weather Wire Service
-Emergency Managers Weather Information
Network
-NOAAPORT
Other NWS Partners, Users and
Employees
From: Tim McClung
Science Plans Branch Chief
Office of Science and Technology
Subject: Changes to Global Forecast System (GFS)-based
Model
Output Statistics (MOS) Guidance
effective
March 24, 2015
On or about
Tuesday, March 24, 2015, beginning with the 1200
Coordinated
Universal Time (UTC) model run, the NWS
Meteorological
Development Laboratory (MDL) will implement a
refresh of the GFS-based MOS guidance for the warm
season. This
implementation will include updated cool season guidance
for
some elements. These changes will impact the
Localized Aviation
MOS
Program (LAMP) products beginning with the 1600 UTC cycle.
MDL has created a
comparison webpage for the short-range and
extended-range GFS-based MOS text bulletins:
http://www.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/~mos/mos/gfsmos_eval/moscomp.php
This update will
include the following changes to GFS-based MOS
text and BUFR products:
1. Updated warm
season equations for the short-range (Days 1-4)
MOS text and BUFR
messages from the 0000, 0600, 1200 and 1800
UTC model
runs. The updates will include the
following
elements:
Daytime Maximum and Nighttime Minimum
Temperature
2-meter Temperature
2-meter Dewpoint
Temperature
Wind Speed
Wind Direction
6-h/12-h probability of a thunderstorm
6-h/12-h conditional prob. of a severe
thunderstorm
2. Updated warm
season equations for the extended-range
(Days 1-7) MOS
text and BUFR messages from the 0000 and 1200 UTC
model runs. The updates will include the following
elements:
Daytime Maximum and Nighttime Minimum
Temperature
2-meter Temperature
2-meter Dewpoint
Temperature
Wind Speed
Wind direction
12-h/24-h probability of a thunderstorm
3. To improve the
calibration for the cool season, equations for
the following elements were updated for the cool
season by
adding three additional months of data to the
training sample:
Daytime Maximum and Nighttime Minimum
Temperature
2-meter Temperature
2-meter Dewpoint
Temperature
4. Updated warm
season equations for the probability of
precipitation occurrence on the hour (PoPO)
and the probability
of precipitation occurrence during a 3-hour
period (PoPO3) for
all cycles of the short-range (days 1-4) MOS
BUFR message.
5. Updated warm
season maximum and minimum temperature guidance
for all cycles of the short-range and extended-range
MOS COOP
text messages.
6. Updated cool
season and warm season mesonet guidance for the
0000
and 1200 UTC cycles. These updates include the following
elements:
Daytime Maximum and Nighttime Minimum
Temperature
2-meter Temperature
2-meter Dewpoint
Temperature
Wind Speed
Wind Direction
Guidance for mesonet sites is used in the GFS MOS River Forecast
Center SHEF
message (AWIPS ID FTP) and also influences the
Gridded
MOS analysis for temperature and wind. New mesonet sites
are not being added to the Gridded MOS analysis
at this time.
7. Stations will
be added to existing warm season regional
equations for the following elements in the
short-range and
extended-range MOS text and BUFR products:
Sky Cover
Probability of Precipitation
Quantitative Precipitation
Ceiling Height
Visibility
Obstruction to Vision
8. NWS will
remove two duplicate stations from the short-range
and extended-range GFS MOS text bulletins (AWIPS
IDs MAV and
MEX) and BUFR
messages for both cool and warm seasons:
K27D
Canby Field, MN (same as KCNB)
KM89
Arkadelphia, AR (same as KADF)
In addition to
the above, sites that were added or removed with
the cool season refresh (see Technical Implementation
Notice
14-47) will also
apply to this warm season update.
9. These changes
will mean 75 stations in the GFS MOS River
Forecast Center
SHEF message (AWIPS ID FTP), which previously
had guidance, will now have missing forecasts.
These 75 stations
are sites that have closed, stopped reporting or
do not contain
sufficient observations to develop equations. Guidance
for new
sites is available for inclusion in the SHEF
message at the
request of the RFCs with a future
implementation.
The cool season
updates outlined above will become effective on
the implementation date. Yhe
warm season updates will become
effective starting April 1 for most elements. These changes
will slightly alter the format of the MAV, MEX,
MMG and FTP
messages because lines will be added or removed to
accommodate
the addition/removal of stations and elements.
The communication
identifiers for the GFS MOS text and BUFR products
affected by
these changes are shown in the tables below.
This update will
also include changes to GFS-based LAMP text and
BUFR
products. The GFS MOS changes above will slightly alter
the format of the LAV messages because lines
will be added or
removed in response to additions or removals of GFS
MOS guidance
for some elements. The communication identifiers
for the LAMP
text and BUFR products affected by these changes
are shown in
the tables below.
Table 1:
Communication identifiers for the GFS-based MOS public
text products affected by the changes. For Air
Force MOS
messages with WMO headers FOUS30 and FEUS30, FXX =
F01,...,F29
WMO HEADING AWIPS ID
WMO HEADING AWIPS ID
(SHORT RANGE) (EXTENDED RANGE)
-------------------- ----------------------
FOPA20 KWNO MAVPA0
FEPA20 KWNO MEXPA0
FOUS21 KWNO MAVNE1
FEUS21 KWNO MEXNE1
FOUS22 KWNO MAVSE1
FEUS22 KWNO MEXSE1
FOUS23 KWNO MAVNC1
FEUS23 KWNO MEXNC1
FOUS24 KWNO MAVSC1
FEUS24 KWNO MEXSC1
FOUS25 KWNO MAVRM1
FEUS25 KWNO MEXRM1
FOUS26 KWNO MAVWC0
FEUS26 KWNO MEXWC0
FOUS30 KWNO MAVFXX
FEUS30 KWNO MEXFXX
FOAK37 KWNO MAVAJK
FEUS37 KWNO MEXAJK
FOAK38 KWNO MAVAFC
FEUS38 KWNO MEXAFC
FOAK39 KWNO MAVAFG
FEUS39 KWNO MEXAFG
Table
2. Communication
identifiers for the GFS-based Marine MOS
text products affected by the changes
WMO HEADING AWIPS ID
----------- --------
FQPA20 KWNO MMGHI1
FQUS21 KWNO MMGNE1
FQUS22 KWNO MMGSE1
FQUS23 KWNO MMGGL1
FQUS24 KWNO MMGGF1
FQUS25 KWNO MMGNW1
FQUS26 KWNO MMGSW1
FQAK37 KWNO MMGAK1
Table
3. Communication
identifiers for the GFS-based River
Forecast Center
MOS text products affected by the changes
WMO HEADING AWIPS ID
----------- --------
FOUS12 KWNO FTPCIN
FOUS12 KWNO FTPHFD
FOUS12 KWNO FTPKRF
FOUS12 KWNO FTPMSR
FOUS12 KWNO FTPPTR
FOUS12 KWNO FTPRHA
FOUS12 KWNO FTPRSA
FOUS12 KWNO FTPSLR
FOUS12 KWNO FTPTUR
FOAK12 KWNO FTPACR
Table
4. Communication
identifiers for the GFS-based Canadian
MOS text products
affected by the changes
WMO
HEADING WMO HEADING
(SHORT RANGE) (EXTENDED RANGE)
----------- -----------
FOCN20 KWNO FECN21 KWNO
Table
5. Communication
identifiers for the GFS-based MOS BUFR
products affected by the changes
WMO HEADING WMO HEADING
REGION
(SHORT RANGE) (EXTENDED RANGE)
----------- -----------
------------------
JSML30 KWNO JSMT30 KWNO
PACIFIC REGION
JSML31 KWNO JSMT31 KWNO
NORTHEAST CONUS
JSML32 KWNO JSMT32 KWNO
SOUTHEAST CONUS
JSML33 KWNO JSMT33 KWNO
NORTH CENTRAL CONUS
JSML34 KWNO JSMT34 KWNO
SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS
JSML35 KWNO JSMT35 KWNO
ROCKY MOUNTAIN CONUS
JSML36 KWNO JSMT36 KWNO
WEST COAST CONUS
JSML37 KWNO JSMT37 KWNO
ALASKA
Table 6:
Communication identifiers for the GFS-based LAMP public
text product affected by the changes
WMO HEADING AWIPS ID
----------- --------
FOUS11 KWNO LAVUSA
Table 7:
Communication identifiers for the GFS-based LAMP BUFR
products affected by the changes
WMO HEADING REGION
------------ ---------------
JSMF10 KWNO PACIFIC REGION
JSMF11 KWNO NORTHEAST CONUS
JSMF12 KWNO SOUTHEAST CONUS
JSMF13 KWNO NORTH CENTRAL CONUS
JSMF14 KWNO SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS
JSMF15 KWNO ROCKY MOUNTAIN CONUS
JSMF16 KWNO WEST COAST CONUS
JSMF17 KWNO ALASKA
For questions
regarding the updates to the GFS MOS guidance and
station changes, contact:
Phil Shafer
MDL/Silver Spring, Maryland
301-427-9488
For questions
regarding the changes to LAMP guidance, contact:
Judy Ghirardelli
MDL/Silver Spring, Maryland
301-427-9496
Links to the MOS
products and descriptions are online at:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop
NWS national
Technical Implementation Notices are online at:
http://www.weather.gov/os/notif.htm
$$