NOUS41 KWBC 201625

PNSWSH

 

Technical Implementation Notice 15-09

National Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC

1130 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2015

 

To:       Subscribers:

          -Family of Services

          -NOAA Weather Wire Service

          -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network

          -NOAAPORT

          Other NWS Partners, Users and Employees

 

From:     Tim McClung

          Science Plans Branch Chief

          Office of Science and Technology

 

Subject:  Changes to Global Forecast System (GFS)-based Model

          Output Statistics (MOS) Guidance effective

          March 24, 2015

 

On or about Tuesday, March 24, 2015, beginning with the 1200

Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) model run, the NWS

Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL) will implement a

refresh of the GFS-based MOS guidance for the warm season. This

implementation will include updated cool season guidance for

some elements. These changes will impact the Localized Aviation

MOS Program (LAMP) products beginning with the 1600 UTC cycle.

MDL has created a comparison webpage for the short-range and

extended-range GFS-based MOS text bulletins:

 

http://www.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/~mos/mos/gfsmos_eval/moscomp.php

 

This update will include the following changes to GFS-based MOS

text and BUFR products:

 

1. Updated warm season equations for the short-range (Days 1-4)

MOS text and BUFR messages from the 0000, 0600, 1200 and 1800

UTC model runs.  The updates will include the following

elements:

 

  Daytime Maximum and Nighttime Minimum Temperature

  2-meter Temperature

  2-meter Dewpoint Temperature

  Wind Speed

  Wind Direction

  6-h/12-h probability of a thunderstorm

  6-h/12-h conditional prob. of a severe thunderstorm

 

2. Updated warm season equations for the extended-range

(Days 1-7) MOS text and BUFR messages from the 0000 and 1200 UTC

model runs. The updates will include the following elements:

 

  Daytime Maximum and Nighttime Minimum Temperature

  2-meter Temperature

  2-meter Dewpoint Temperature

  Wind Speed

  Wind direction

  12-h/24-h probability of a thunderstorm

 

3. To improve the calibration for the cool season, equations for

the following elements were updated for the cool season by

adding three additional months of data to the training sample:

 

  Daytime Maximum and Nighttime Minimum Temperature

  2-meter Temperature

  2-meter Dewpoint Temperature

 

4. Updated warm season equations for the probability of

precipitation occurrence on the hour (PoPO) and the probability

of precipitation occurrence during a 3-hour period (PoPO3) for

all cycles of the short-range (days 1-4) MOS BUFR message.

 

5. Updated warm season maximum and minimum temperature guidance

for all cycles of the short-range and extended-range MOS COOP

text messages.

 

6. Updated cool season and warm season mesonet guidance for the

0000 and 1200 UTC cycles.  These updates include the following

elements:

 

  Daytime Maximum and Nighttime Minimum Temperature

  2-meter Temperature

  2-meter Dewpoint Temperature

  Wind Speed

  Wind Direction

 

Guidance for mesonet sites is used in the GFS MOS River Forecast

Center SHEF message (AWIPS ID FTP) and also influences the

Gridded MOS analysis for temperature and wind. New mesonet sites

are not being added to the Gridded MOS analysis at this time.

 

7. Stations will be added to existing warm season regional

equations for the following elements in the short-range and

extended-range MOS text and BUFR products:

 

  Sky Cover

  Probability of Precipitation

  Quantitative Precipitation

  Ceiling Height

  Visibility

  Obstruction to Vision

 

8. NWS will remove two duplicate stations from the short-range

and extended-range GFS MOS text bulletins (AWIPS IDs MAV and

MEX) and BUFR messages for both cool and warm seasons:

 

  K27D   Canby Field, MN   (same as KCNB)

  KM89   Arkadelphia, AR   (same as KADF)

 

In addition to the above, sites that were added or removed with

the cool season refresh (see Technical Implementation Notice 

14-47) will also apply to this warm season update.

 

9. These changes will mean 75 stations in the GFS MOS River

Forecast Center SHEF message (AWIPS ID FTP), which previously

had guidance, will now have missing forecasts. These 75 stations

are sites that have closed, stopped reporting or do not contain

sufficient observations to develop equations. Guidance for new

sites is available for inclusion in the SHEF message at the

request of the RFCs with a future implementation. 

 

The cool season updates outlined above will become effective on

the implementation date. Yhe warm season updates will become

effective starting April 1 for most elements.  These changes

will slightly alter the format of the MAV, MEX, MMG and FTP

messages because lines will be added or removed to accommodate

the addition/removal of stations and elements. The communication

identifiers for the GFS MOS text and BUFR products affected by

these changes are shown in the tables below.

  

This update will also include changes to GFS-based LAMP text and

BUFR products.  The GFS MOS changes above will slightly alter

the format of the LAV messages because lines will be added or

removed in response to additions or removals of GFS MOS guidance

for some elements. The communication identifiers for the LAMP

text and BUFR products affected by these changes are shown in

the tables below.

 

Table 1: Communication identifiers for the GFS-based MOS public

text products affected by the changes. For Air Force MOS

messages with WMO headers FOUS30 and FEUS30, FXX = F01,...,F29

 

     WMO HEADING   AWIPS ID   WMO HEADING   AWIPS ID

         (SHORT RANGE)           (EXTENDED RANGE)

     --------------------     ----------------------

     FOPA20 KWNO   MAVPA0     FEPA20 KWNO   MEXPA0

     FOUS21 KWNO   MAVNE1     FEUS21 KWNO   MEXNE1

     FOUS22 KWNO   MAVSE1     FEUS22 KWNO   MEXSE1

     FOUS23 KWNO   MAVNC1     FEUS23 KWNO   MEXNC1

     FOUS24 KWNO   MAVSC1     FEUS24 KWNO   MEXSC1

     FOUS25 KWNO   MAVRM1     FEUS25 KWNO   MEXRM1

     FOUS26 KWNO   MAVWC0     FEUS26 KWNO   MEXWC0

     FOUS30 KWNO   MAVFXX     FEUS30 KWNO   MEXFXX

     FOAK37 KWNO   MAVAJK     FEUS37 KWNO   MEXAJK

     FOAK38 KWNO   MAVAFC     FEUS38 KWNO   MEXAFC

     FOAK39 KWNO   MAVAFG     FEUS39 KWNO   MEXAFG

 

Table 2. Communication identifiers for the GFS-based Marine MOS

text products affected by the changes

 

     WMO HEADING   AWIPS ID

     -----------   --------

     FQPA20 KWNO   MMGHI1

     FQUS21 KWNO   MMGNE1

     FQUS22 KWNO   MMGSE1

     FQUS23 KWNO   MMGGL1

     FQUS24 KWNO   MMGGF1

     FQUS25 KWNO   MMGNW1

     FQUS26 KWNO   MMGSW1

     FQAK37 KWNO   MMGAK1

 

Table 3. Communication identifiers for the GFS-based River

Forecast Center MOS text products affected by the changes

 

     WMO HEADING   AWIPS ID

     -----------   --------

     FOUS12 KWNO   FTPCIN

     FOUS12 KWNO   FTPHFD

     FOUS12 KWNO   FTPKRF

     FOUS12 KWNO   FTPMSR

     FOUS12 KWNO   FTPPTR 

     FOUS12 KWNO   FTPRHA 

     FOUS12 KWNO   FTPRSA

     FOUS12 KWNO   FTPSLR 

     FOUS12 KWNO   FTPTUR

     FOAK12 KWNO   FTPACR

 

Table 4. Communication identifiers for the GFS-based Canadian

MOS text products affected by the changes

 

     WMO HEADING   WMO HEADING  

    (SHORT RANGE) (EXTENDED RANGE)

     -----------   -----------

     FOCN20 KWNO   FECN21 KWNO

 

Table 5. Communication identifiers for the GFS-based MOS BUFR

products affected by the changes

 

     WMO HEADING   WMO HEADING   REGION

    (SHORT RANGE) (EXTENDED RANGE)

     -----------   -----------   ------------------   

     JSML30 KWNO   JSMT30 KWNO   PACIFIC REGION

     JSML31 KWNO   JSMT31 KWNO   NORTHEAST CONUS

     JSML32 KWNO   JSMT32 KWNO   SOUTHEAST CONUS

     JSML33 KWNO   JSMT33 KWNO   NORTH CENTRAL CONUS

     JSML34 KWNO   JSMT34 KWNO   SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS

     JSML35 KWNO   JSMT35 KWNO   ROCKY MOUNTAIN CONUS

     JSML36 KWNO   JSMT36 KWNO   WEST COAST CONUS

     JSML37 KWNO   JSMT37 KWNO   ALASKA

 

Table 6: Communication identifiers for the GFS-based LAMP public

text product affected by the changes

 

     WMO HEADING   AWIPS ID

     -----------   --------   

     FOUS11 KWNO   LAVUSA

 

Table 7: Communication identifiers for the GFS-based LAMP BUFR

products affected by the changes

 

     WMO HEADING   REGION

     ------------  ---------------

     JSMF10 KWNO   PACIFIC REGION

     JSMF11 KWNO   NORTHEAST CONUS

     JSMF12 KWNO   SOUTHEAST CONUS

     JSMF13 KWNO   NORTH CENTRAL CONUS

     JSMF14 KWNO   SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS

     JSMF15 KWNO   ROCKY MOUNTAIN CONUS

     JSMF16 KWNO   WEST COAST CONUS

     JSMF17 KWNO   ALASKA

 

For questions regarding the updates to the GFS MOS guidance and

station changes, contact:

 

  Phil Shafer

  MDL/Silver Spring, Maryland

  301-427-9488

  Phil.Shafer@noaa.gov

 

For questions regarding the changes to LAMP guidance, contact:

 

  Judy Ghirardelli

  MDL/Silver Spring, Maryland

  301-427-9496

  Judy.Ghirardelli@noaa.gov

 

Links to the MOS products and descriptions are online at:

 

  http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop

 

NWS national Technical Implementation Notices are online at: 

 

  http://www.weather.gov/os/notif.htm

 

$$