NOUS41 KWBC 091929 PNSWSH TECHNICAL IMPLEMENTATION NOTICE 06-40 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC 330 PM EDT FRI JUN 9 2006 TO: FAMILY OF SERVICES /FOS/ SUBSCRIBERS...NOAA WEATHER WIRE SERVICE /NWWS/ SUBSCRIBERS... EMERGENCY MANAGERS WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK /EMWIN/ SUBSCRIBERS...NOAAPORT SUBSCRIBERS... OTHER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE /NWS/ CUSTOMERS AND PARTNERS...NWS EMPLOYEES FROM: PAUL HIRSCHBERG CHIEF...SCIENCE PLANS BRANCH OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY /OST/ SUBJECT: IMPACT ON ETA BASED MOS GUIDANCE WITH IMPLEMENTATION OF NON-HYDROSTATIC MESOSCALE MODEL ON JUNE 13 2006 REFER TO: TECHNICAL IMPLEMENTATION NOTICE /TIN/ 05-68 AMENDED TRANSMITTED ON MARCH 20 2006 ATTENTION USERS OF THE MOS GUIDANCE: EFFECTIVE JUNE 13 2006...BEGINNING WITH THE 1200 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME /UTC/ RUN...THE NWS WILL REPLACE THE FORECAST MODEL CURRENTLY RUN IN THE NORTH AMERICAN MESOSCALE /NAM/ SYSTEM. THE 12 KM HORIZONTAL RESOLUTION ETA MODEL IS CURRENTLY USED IN THIS SYSTEM. THE MODEL WILL BE REPLACED WITH A 12 KM HORIZONTAL RESOLUTION WEATHER RESEARCH AND FORECASTING /WRF/ VERSION OF THE NON-HYDROSTATIC MESOSCALE MODEL /NMM/. RECENT VERIFICATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CURRENT SYSTEM OF ETA- BASED MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS /MOS/ EQUATIONS...WHEN APPLIED TO OUTPUT FROM THE WRF VERSION OF THE NMM...PRODUCES GUIDANCE THAT IS CONSIDERABLY LESS ACCURATE THAN THE CURRENTLY OPERATIONAL ETA MOS GUIDANCE. TO ALLOW USERS TO TRANSITION TO MOS GUIDANCE BASED ON THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM /GFS/... THE NWS WILL RUN AN INTERIM 32 KM ETA MODEL OVER THE NAM DOMAIN DURING THE 0000 AND 1200 UTC FORECAST CYCLES. FORECASTS FROM THIS ETA RUN WILL BE USED AS INPUT TO THE ETA MOS. NO DIRECT MODEL OUTPUT FROM THIS INTERIM VERSION OF THE ETA MODEL WILL BE TRANSMITTED OR MADE AVAILABLE ON NWS SERVERS. THIS IMPLEMENTATION OF THE INTERIM ETA MODEL AND SUBSEQUENT MODIFICATION TO THE ETA MOS GUIDANCE WILL OCCUR ON JUNE 13 2006 WHEN THE WRF IS IMPLEMENTED. NO DELAY IN THE TIME OF TRANSMISSION OF THE ETA-BASED MOS PRODUCTS IS EXPECTED. THE QUALITY OF THE ETA MOS GUIDANCE IN THIS RECONFIGURATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT THE SAME AS THAT PRODUCED BY THE CURRENT ETA MOS SYSTEM. THE EFFECTIVE DATE OF THIS CHANGE IS SOONER THAN SPECIFIED BY NWS POLICY. REDUCING THE NORMAL ADVANCE LEAD TIME WAS APPROVED DUE TO THE RECENT UNDERSTANDING OF THE NEGATIVE IMPACT THAT THE NCEP MODEL CHANGE ON JUNE 13 2006 WOULD HAVE ON THE WRF MOS. SAMPLE VERIFICATIONS CAN BE FOUND AT THE URL LISTED BELOW /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MDL/SYNOP/WRFMOSEVAL.HTM THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC WEATHER ALPHANUMERIC MESSAGES...MARINE MESSAGES...AND BUFR PRODUCTS ARE AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE: TABLE 1. COMMUNICATION IDENTIFIERS FOR THE ETA-BASED MOS PUBLIC WEATHER TEXT PRODUCTS. WMO HEADING AWIPS ID FOAK47 KWNO METAJK FOAK48 KWNO METAFC FOAK49 KWNO METAFG FOPA40 KWNO METPA0 FOUS44 KWNO METNE1 FOUS45 KWNO METSE1 FOUS46 KWNO METNC1 FOUS47 KWNO METSC1 FOUS48 KWNO METRM1 FOUS49 KWNO METWC1 TABLE 2. COMMUNICATION IDENTIFIERS FOR THE ETA-BASED MOS MARINE TEXT PRODUCTS. WMO HEADING AWIPS ID FQAK47 KWNO MMEAK1 FQPA40 KWNO MMEHI1 FQUS41 KWNO MMENE1 FQUS42 KWNO MMESE1 FQUS43 KWNO MMEGL1 FQUS44 KWNO MMEGF1 FQUS45 KWNO MMENW1 FQUS46 KWNO MMESW1 TABLE 3. COMMUNICATION IDENTIFIERS FOR THE ETA-BASED MOS BUFR MESSAGES WMO HEADING JSML10 KWNO JSML11 KWNO JSML12 KWNO JSML13 KWNO JSML14 KWNO JSML15 KWNO JSML16 KWNO JSML17 KWNO TECHNICAL PROCEDURES BULLETINS DESCRIBING THE ETA MOS PUBLIC WEATHER TEXT PRODUCTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE URL LISTED BELOW /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/ HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/MDL/SYNOP/SMBPUBLICATIONS.HTML A DESCRIPTION OF THE MOS MARINE TEXT MESSAGE CAN BE FOUND AT THE URL LISTED BELOW /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/ HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/MDL/SYNOP/MARINEDESC.HTM MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE BUFR MESSAGES CAN BE FOUND AT THE URL LISTED BELOW /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/ HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/MDL/SYNOP/BUFR.HTML IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS ABOUT THESE PRODUCTS OR THE MOS GUIDANCE... PLEASE CONTACT: J. PAUL DALLAVALLE MDL/SILVER SPRING MARYLAND PHONE: 301-713-0023 EXT. 135 E-MAIL: PAUL.DALLAVALLE@NOAA.GOV LINKS TO THE MOS PRODUCTS...ALONG WITH DESCRIPTIONS...CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/ HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/MDL/SYNOP THIS AND OTHER NWS TECHNICAL IMPLEMENTATION NOTICES ARE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/ HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM $$ NNNN