MOS Training Course

Contents

1. Model Output Statistics (MOS) -Objective Interpretation of NWP
   
   
2. OUTLINE
   
   
3. WHY STATISTICAL GUIDANCE?
   
   
4. MRF MOS Max Temp vs. DMO
   
   
5. A SIMPLE STATISTICAL MODEL
   
   
6. MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS (MOS)
   
   
7. MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS (MOS)
   
   
8. MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS (MOS)
   
   
9. AVN MOS GUIDANCE MESSAGE
   
   
10. AVN / Eta MOS vs. NGM MOS
    
    
11. Slide 11
    
    
12. Slide 12
    
    
13. MRF MOS GUIDANCE MESSAGE
    
    
14. MRF MOS: A SUMMARY
    
    
15. MOS LINEAR REGRESSION
    
    
16. MOS LINEAR REGRESSION
    
    
17. REDUCTION OF VARIANCE
    
    
18. MOS LINEAR REGRESSION
    
    
19. MOS LINEAR REGRESSION
    
    
20. MOS LINEAR REGRESSION
    
    
21. MOS LINEAR REGRESSION
    
    
22. MOS LINEAR REGRESSION
    
    
23. EXAMPLE REGRESSION EQUATIONS
    
    
24. If the predictand is BINARY,
    
    
25. DEFINITION of PROBABILITY
    
    
26. PROPERTIES OF
    
    
27. DEVELOPMENTAL CONSIDERATIONS
    
    
28. PREDICTAND DEFINITION
    
    
29. PREDICTAND DEFINITION
    
    
30. "APPROPRIATE" PREDICTORS
    
    
31. POINT BINARY PREDICTOR
    
    
32. GRID BINARY PREDICTOR
    
    
33. Logit Transform Example
    
    
34. "REAL" REGRESSION EQUATIONS
    
    
35. FORWARD SELECTION
    
    
36. AVN MOS Cool Season PoP/QPF Regions
    
    
37. MOS BEST CATEGORY SELECTION
    
    
38. CHALLENGE TO NEW MOS DEVELOPMENT:
    
    
39. The New MOS Systems
    
    
40. Slide 40
    
    
41. Cool Season 3-h Tmp Verif.
    
    
42. Warm Season QPF Verification
    
    
43. QPF Verification: MOS
    
    
44. Max Temperature Verification
    
    
45. The Future of MOS
    
    
46. The Future of MOS
    
    
47. MRF MOS Day 3 Maximum Temperature
    
    
48. AVN MOS 6-hr Probability of Precipitation (PoP)
    
    
49. The Future of MOS
    
    
50. The Future of MOS
    
    
51. Slide 51
    
    
52. Slide 52
    
    
53. Slide 53
    
    
54. Slide 54
    
    
55. The Future of MOS
    
    
56. REFERENCES
    
    

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Last updated:
April 11, 2003 (Friday)