# MOS Training Course

## Start Here

### Contents

1. Model Output Statistics (MOS) -Objective Interpretation of NWP

2. OUTLINE

3. WHY STATISTICAL GUIDANCE?

4. MRF MOS Max Temp vs. DMO

5. A SIMPLE STATISTICAL MODEL

6. MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS (MOS)

7. MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS (MOS)

8. MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS (MOS)

9. AVN MOS GUIDANCE MESSAGE

10. AVN / Eta MOS vs. NGM MOS

11. Slide 11

12. Slide 12

13. MRF MOS GUIDANCE MESSAGE

14. MRF MOS: A SUMMARY

15. MOS LINEAR REGRESSION

16. MOS LINEAR REGRESSION

17. REDUCTION OF VARIANCE

18. MOS LINEAR REGRESSION

19. MOS LINEAR REGRESSION

20. MOS LINEAR REGRESSION

21. MOS LINEAR REGRESSION

22. MOS LINEAR REGRESSION

23. EXAMPLE REGRESSION EQUATIONS

24. If the predictand is BINARY,

25. DEFINITION of PROBABILITY

26. PROPERTIES OF

27. DEVELOPMENTAL CONSIDERATIONS

28. PREDICTAND DEFINITION

29. PREDICTAND DEFINITION

30. "APPROPRIATE" PREDICTORS

31. POINT BINARY PREDICTOR

32. GRID BINARY PREDICTOR

33. Logit Transform Example

34. "REAL" REGRESSION EQUATIONS

35. FORWARD SELECTION

36. AVN MOS Cool Season PoP/QPF Regions

37. MOS BEST CATEGORY SELECTION

38. CHALLENGE TO NEW MOS DEVELOPMENT:

39. The New MOS Systems

40. Slide 40

41. Cool Season 3-h Tmp Verif.

42. Warm Season QPF Verification

43. QPF Verification: MOS

44. Max Temperature Verification

45. The Future of MOS

46. The Future of MOS

47. MRF MOS Day 3 Maximum Temperature

48. AVN MOS 6-hr Probability of Precipitation (PoP)

49. The Future of MOS

50. The Future of MOS

51. Slide 51

52. Slide 52

53. Slide 53

54. Slide 54

55. The Future of MOS

56. REFERENCES