Slide 2 of 56
1: Model Output Statistics (MOS) -Objective Interpretation of NWP
2: OUTLINE
3: WHY STATISTICAL GUIDANCE?
4: MRF MOS Max Temp vs. DMO
5: A SIMPLE STATISTICAL MODEL
6: MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS (MOS)
7: MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS (MOS)
8: MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS (MOS)
9: AVN MOS GUIDANCE MESSAGE
10: AVN / Eta MOS vs. NGM MOS
11: Slide 11
12: Slide 12
13: MRF MOS GUIDANCE MESSAGE
14: MRF MOS: A SUMMARY
15: MOS LINEAR REGRESSION
16: MOS LINEAR REGRESSION
17: REDUCTION OF VARIANCE
18: MOS LINEAR REGRESSION
19: MOS LINEAR REGRESSION
20: MOS LINEAR REGRESSION
21: MOS LINEAR REGRESSION
22: MOS LINEAR REGRESSION
23: EXAMPLE REGRESSION EQUATIONS
24: If the predictand is BINARY,
25: DEFINITION of PROBABILITY
26: PROPERTIES OF
27: DEVELOPMENTAL CONSIDERATIONS
28: PREDICTAND DEFINITION
29: PREDICTAND DEFINITION
30: "APPROPRIATE" PREDICTORS
31: POINT BINARY PREDICTOR
32: GRID BINARY PREDICTOR
33: Logit Transform Example
34: "REAL" REGRESSION EQUATIONS
35: FORWARD SELECTION
36: AVN MOS Cool Season PoP/QPF Regions
37: MOS BEST CATEGORY SELECTION
38: CHALLENGE TO NEW MOS DEVELOPMENT:
39: The New MOS Systems
40: Slide 40
41: Cool Season 3-h Tmp Verif.
42: Warm Season QPF Verification
43: QPF Verification: MOS
44: Max Temperature Verification
45: The Future of MOS
46: The Future of MOS
47: MRF MOS Day 3 Maximum Temperature
48: AVN MOS 6-hr Probability of Precipitation (PoP)
49: The Future of MOS
50: The Future of MOS
51: Slide 51
52: Slide 52
53: Slide 53
54: Slide 54
55: The Future of MOS
56: REFERENCES