NUOPC (National Unified Operational Prediction Capability) is an agreement to coordinate activities between the Department of Commerce (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and the Department of Defense (Oceanographer and Navigator of the Navy and Air Force Directorate of Weather), in order to accelerate the transition of new technology, eliminate unnecessary duplication, and achieve a superior National global prediction capability.
The NUOPC partners determined that the Nation’s global atmospheric modeling capability can be advanced more effectively and efficiently with their mutual cooperation to provide a common infrastructure to perform and support their individual missions.
The NUOPC Tri-Agency (NOAA, Navy, Air Force) agreed to work on a collaborative vision through coordinated research, transition and operations in order to develop and implement the next-generation National Operational Global Ensemble modeling system. This NUOPC plan consists of the following elements:
A Unified Ensemble Operations (UEO) agreement was established on 22 July, 2011 to promote a framework to manage the National Unified Ensemble (NUE). The UEO agreement established the requirement for a UEO Committee, along with the associated roles and responsibilities of the committee. Assigned responsibilities for the UEO Committee include the development of a UEO operational management plan to provide oversight of normal, ongoing NUE operations. The UEO Operational Management Plan (UEO Plan) was completed in October 2012. In accordance with the guidance of the NUOPC UEO agreement and the recommendations of the Final Report of the Interim UEO Committee, the UEO Committee will track and coordinate, as appropriate, the milestone activities included in Annex I of the UEO Plan.
The NUOPC Layer defines conventions and templates for using the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) http://www.earthsystemmodeling.org/ to make it easier to collaboratively build modeling systems, and includes a compliance checker that helps to guide users through implementation of compliant model components. The NUOPC Layer website, http://www.earthsystemcog.org/projects/nuopc/ contains roadmaps that describe a set of tasks that will enable the major U.S. Earth system model codes to be interoperable and utilize high performance, community-developed infrastructure. A prototype of the NUOPC Layer has been bundled as part of the ESMF releases since ESMF version 5.2.0r. A production release of the NUOPC Layer is scheduled for FY13.
To optimize ensemble product use and development, annual NUOPC Users Surveys are distributed to partnering agencies (NOAA, Navy, and Air Force) Operations Heads and Forecasters. An initial survey was distributed In February 2012, results were analyzed, and a baseline was set for tracking progress of how the tri-agency forecasting community is implementing and improving ensemble use (and to measure the influence of NUOPC activities). The 2nd annual survey was completed in early 2013, and the results will build on the data collected in 2012 to allow NUOPC to better understand the use and impact of ensembles.
Committee Progress - The Common Model Architecture (CMA) committee is continuing development of future model architecture and software standards. The CMA committee is working with the Content Standards Committee (CSC) to integrate the NUOPC Layer into various models, including the NOAA NEMS and Navy NOGAPS/COAMPS models. The CSC is the subcommittee working the details with ESMF committees to address standardized implementation of the ESMF and specifically the coupled atmosphere and ocean design document. Other planned CMA activities include investigation of adding new features into the NUOPC layer such as implicit coupling as it relates to the atmosphere-ocean coupling activity, nested/moving grids, and a Single Column Model.
NUOPC will participate in the 6th NCEP/NWS Ensemble Users Workshop, 16-18 October in College Park, MD at the National Center for Weather and Climate Prediction (NCWCP). This meeting will bring together experts and users involved in the generation and use of NCEP ensemble forecast information to review progress since the last meeting in May 2011, and to discuss plans. NUOPC will lead a session to discuss current ensemble use and training, and discuss ways to improve training and gain more value from current ensemble products.