HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 1025 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2008
...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...
SYNOPSIS...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE PAST WEEK WERE GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHILE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA RECEIVED ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM DROUGHT SITUATION ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATES SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR HALEYVILLE TO GORDO TO UNIONTOWN TO LOWNDESBORO TO AUBURN. REMAINING AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST ARE IN ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE DROUGHT MONITOR CLASSIFIES DROUGHT WITHIN ONE OF THESE FIVE CATEGORIES:
1) ABNORMALLY DRY 2) MODERATE 3) SEVERE 4) EXTREME 5) EXCEPTIONAL
RAINFALL AVERAGED ONE TO THREE INCHES NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR VERNON TO LAFAYETTE DURING THE PAST WEEK. AREAS SOUTH OF THIS LINE GENERALLY RECEIVED LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN. SO FAR IN MAY... RAINFALL HAS AVERAGED FROM ONE AND A HALF TO FOUR INCHES...ALTHOUGH AREAS IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AROUND TROY HAVE RECEIVED LESS THAN AN INCH. FOR THE YEAR... RAINFALL HAS AVERAGED FROM SEVENTEEN TO TWENTY FIVE INCHES. FOR THE MONTH OF MAY...AVERAGE RAINFALL IS FROM FOUR AND ONE QUARTER TO FOUR AND THREE QUARTER INCHES.
SOME PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA JANUARY 1ST THROUGH MAY 14TH:
BIRMINGHAM 22.88 MONTGOMERY 17.11 ANNISTON 18.50 TUSCALOOSA 19.05 CALERA 25.09 TROY 19.50
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1ST THROUGH MAY 14TH:
BIRMINGHAM 22.67 UP 0.21 MONTGOMERY 23.16 DOWN 6.05 ANNISTON 23.24 DOWN 4.74 TUSCALOOSA 24.39 DOWN 5.34
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... TOP SOIL MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST AREAS...AND THIS HAS GREATLY AIDED SPRING CROPS BEING PLANTED. HOWEVER...SUBSOIL CONDITIONS HAVE STILL NOT RECOVERED FROM THE EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT OF LAST FALL AND SUMMER.
SIGNIFICANT SPRINGTIME PLANTING CONTINUES WITH THE USDA REPORTING 97 PERCENT OF THE CORN CROP PLANTED. OVERALL...ALABAMA'S CORN CROP WAS IN GOOD TO EXCELLENT CONDITION. PASTURE CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT...AND REPORTED TO BE IN THE BEST SHAPE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SINCE 2005. THE WINTER WHEAT CROP ALSO REMAINED IN MOSTLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT CONDITION. OVERALL...CROP AND LIVESTOCK CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WERE IN GOOD CONDITION.
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... GENERALLY SPEAKING...THE RISK FOR FIRE DANGERS IS CURRENTLY LOW ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES (KBDI) ARE CURRENTLY 100 OR LESS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 170 IN WEST CENTRAL COUNTIES. VALUES ABOVE 500 INDICATE A SEVERE FIRE DANGER.
THE ALABAMA FORESTRY COMMISSION REPORTS THAT NO COUNTIES ARE CURRENTLY UNDER A FIRE ALERT.
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... STREAM FLOWS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN FOLLOWING THE RECENT RAINFALL...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE REPORTING UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY STREAM GAGES CURRENTLY IN THE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL RANGE. HOWEVER...WITH THE INCREASE IN THE DEMAND FOR WATER FROM GROWING VEGETATION...FREQUENT RAINS ARE STILL NEEDED TO HELP STREAM FLOWS REMAIN IN THE NORMAL RANGE.
RESERVOIR LEVELS ARE REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY. MOST MAJOR RESERVOIRS HAVE NOW RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL SUMMER POOL LEVELS. PERIODIC SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL WILL NEED TO CONTINUE IN ORDER FOR THE MAJOR RESERVOIRS TO SUSTAIN THEIR CURRENT LEVELS THROUGH SUMMER.
LISTED BELOW ARE TODAY'S LEVELS FOR SOME OF THE MAJOR RESERVOIRS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AND LAST WEEK'S LEVELS:
RESERVOIR LEVEL FOR 05/15/2008 LEVEL FOR 05/09/2008
WEISS 563.7 563.8 NEELY HENRY 507.5 507.8 LOGAN MARTIN 464.6 464.9 LAY 395.6 395.9 MITCHELL 311.5 311.7 JORDAN 251.2 251.2 R.L. HARRIS 792.5 793.0 MARTIN 489.4 489.6 SMITH 509.8 509.9 BANKHEAD 254.7 254.6 HOLT 187.0 186.4
SOCIAL IMPACTS... SOME OF THE WATER RESTRICTIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA HAVE BEEN LIFTED OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THE NEAR AVERAGE RAINFALL CONDITIONS FROM LATE WINTER THROUGH EARLY SPRING HAVE ALLOWED SOME OF THE MAJOR CITY RESERVOIRS TO FILL TO CAPACITY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF WATER SHORTAGES FOR MUNICIPAL WATER SYSTEMS WILL PERSIST AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE SUMMER SEASON...ESPECIALLY IF BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL OCCURS OVER THE AREA. THE AMOUNT OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THAT OCCURS DURING THE REMAINDER OF SPRING AND INTO THE SUMMER WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING IF ADEQUATE WATER SUPPLIES ARE AVAILABLE FOR THE UPCOMING SUMMER IN AREA RESERVOIRS.
OUTLOOK... A COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LIKELY RETURN BY THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK...AND THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY COULD BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ONCE AGAIN.
THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST...FOR MAY 20TH THROUGH MAY 28TH...CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK...FOR JUNE THROUGH AUGUST...CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL.
...UPDATE STATEMENT... THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND MAY 22ND...OR EARLIER IF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE CURRENT DROUGHT SITUATION OCCUR.
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