HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 1100 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008
...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...
...STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONT BRINGS WELCOME RAINS TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...
...EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER ZAPATA, JIM HOGG, NORTHERN STARR AND WESTERN BROOKS COUNTIES...
SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONT TREKKING THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ENCOUNTERED A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS, RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE 27TH OF APRIL. THIS WAS THE FIRST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THE REGION HAS RECEIVED SINCE JANUARY. RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGED A QUARTER TO HALF AN IN INCH OVER ZAPATA, JIM HOGG AND STARR COUNTIES. THE EASTERN COUNTIES RECEIVED 1 TO 2 INCH TOTALS. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WERE OVER SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS OF CAMERON COUNTY, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. THE WELCOME RAINS PROVIDED ONLY SHORT TERM RELIEF TO THE SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS. EXCLUDING THIS RAIN EVENT, EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILED DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL. ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER (NCDC) EXCEPTIONALLY DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE PERIOD OF OCTOBER 2007 TO MARCH 2008. ACCORDING TO THE UNITED STATES DROUGHT MONITOR, EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS (D4) ARE OCCURRING OVER ZAPATA, JIM HOGG, WESTERN BROOKS AND NORTHERN STARR COUNTIES. EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS (D3) PERSIST OVER HIDALGO, EASTERN BROOKS AND SOUTHERN STARR COUNTIES. SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS (D2) ARE INDICATED OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF KENEDY, WILLACY AND CAMERON. THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY AFFECTING AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS, INCLUDING PASTURES AND GRASSLANDS.
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS...
FALCON AND AMISTAD RESERVOIRS PROVIDE MUCH OF THE WATER FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. CURRENTLY, STORAGE AT AMISTAD IS AT 74 PERCENT OF NORMAL CONSERVATION. STORAGE AT FALCON IS CURRENTLY AT 41 PERCENT OF NORMAL CONSERVATION. WATER STORAGE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE AT BOTH RESERVOIRS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASE DEMANDS FROM MUNICIPALITIES AND AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS.
FIRE DANGER....
WILDFIRE DANGER CONTINUES TO BE OF GREAT CONCERN FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. ACCORDING TO THE STATE OF TEXAS FOREST SERVICE, THE COMBINATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ABUNDANT DRY FUELS, LOW HUMIDITIES AND MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS WILL ALLOW THE FIRE DANGER TO REMAIN MODERATE TO HIGH OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. RECENT RAINS PROVIDED LITTLE RELIEF TO THE FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS. THE LATEST KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES (KBDI) ARE CURRENTLY 700 AND ABOVE OVER ZAPATA COUNTY, 600 TO 700 KBDI OVER STARR, JIM HOGG, BROOKS, HIDALGO AND KENEDY COUNTIES. KEETCH-BYRAM INDICES ARE 500 TO 600 OVER WILLACY AND CAMERON COUNTIES. BURN BANS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE ALL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KENEDY COUNTY. RESIDENTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ARE STRONGLY URGED TO USE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN DISPOSING OF SMOKING MATERIALS, AND REFRAIN FROM ALL OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES.
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER, SOIL MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IS ABNORMALLY TO EXCESSIVELY DRY. ACCORDING TO THE UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURAL, THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS A&M, TEXAS AGRILIFE EXTENSION SERVICE AGENTS...SHORT TO VERY SHORT MOISTURE CONDITIONS CONTINUED TO BE THE RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. RECENT RAINS PROVIDED SHORT TERM RELIEF. DRYLAND CROPS COULD EXPERIENCE A HEAVY LOSS DUE TO THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. CABBAGE AND ONION HARVEST CONTINUES. COTTON, CORN, SORGHUM, SPRING VEGETABLES, CANTALOUPES, AND WATERMELONS WERE MAKING GOOD PROGRESS UNDER IRRIGATION. PRODUCERS ARE STILL PROVIDING SUPPLEMENTAL FEED TO CATTLE BECAUSE OF LACK OF SPRING FORAGE. RECENT DAILY EVAPORATION RATES HAVE BEEN AVERAGING A QUARTER TO NEAR HALF AN INCH.
RESTRICTIONS...
ACCORDING TO THE STATE OF TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY (TCEQ), THERE ARE CURRENTLY 3 PUBLIC WATER SYSTEMS IN HIDALGO COUNTY WHICH ARE UNDER MILD RATIONING.
OUTLOOK...(MAY 2ND - MAY 15TH)... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH MAY 7TH. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN MAY 7TH ALLOWING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS MAY 8TH. THIS MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS MAY 8TH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY 9TH AND 10TH BEFORE WEAKENING ON THE 11TH. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM MAY 9TH THROUGH MAY 11TH BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES SOUTHEAST ON THE 12TH BRINGING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THIS FRONT MAY PROVIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS MAY 12TH. ANY RAINFALL THAT DOES OCCUR OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH MAY 15TH WILL PROVIDE ONLY SHORT TERM RELIEF FROM THE CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE OVERALL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. AVERAGE HIGHS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR EARLY TO MID MAY GENERALLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WHILE AVERAGE LOWS FOR THE SAME PERIOD RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THE LONG RANGE CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR MAY THROUGH JULY OF 2008...DERIVED FROM GUIDANCE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...INDICATES THAT WEAK TO MODERATE LA NINA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE SPRING INTO THE EARLY SUMMER OF 2008. AS A RESULT OF THE CONTINUING LA NINA CONDITIONS...BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE EXPECTED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH JULY OF 2008. SOME GUIDANCE FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES THE POTENTIAL OF THE LA NINA CONDITIONS WEAKENING FOR THE REST OF THE SUMMER MONTHS OF 2008. THIS MAY ALLOW MORE NORMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION AFTER JULY 2008. THE U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK AND OTHER GUIDANCE FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES THAT DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OR INTENSIFY THROUGH JULY OF 2008.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...AND THE LATEST WEATHER FORECAST FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO. YOU MAY ALSO VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER WEBSITE AT WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV AND GET THE LATEST INFORMATION ON RESERVOIR LEVELS FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION AT WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV.
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VEGA/CASTILLO