DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 308 PM CST THU JAN 22 2009 ...EXTREME DROUGHT SPREADS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST... SYNOPSIS... OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS...RAINFALL TOTALS WERE DISMAL...WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING NO RAINFALL AT ALL. LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED ANY RAIN ONLY MEASURED A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. THEREFORE... RAINFALL TOTALS WERE INSUFFICIENT TO MAKE ANY IMPACTS IN THE ONGOING TEXAS DROUGHT. DESPITE THE FACT THAT ON AVERAGE EARLY JANUARY HAS LOW RAINFALL TOTALS...RECEIVED RAINFALL WAS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL OVER ALL OF THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA). BECAUSE OF THIS...THE ONGOING DROUGHT WORSENED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS. THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR PRODUCT...VALID FOR JANUARY 22 2009 SHOWS THE FOLLOWING CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH TEXAS... EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS SPREAD FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST AND NOW INCLUDES THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF BEE COUNTY...ALL OF GOLIAD COUNTY... THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF VICTORIA COUNTY...THE NORTHWESTERN TWO THIRDS OF REFUGIO COUNTY...THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF ARANSAS COUNTY AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF SAN PATRICIO COUNTY... SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE EXTREME DROUGHT AREA AND EXTEND FROM THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LASALLE AND MCMULLEN COUNTIES...THEN ALONG AND EAST OF A THREE RIVERS TO MATHIS TO ANNAVILLE LINE...MOVING INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF NUECES COUNTY BUT NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF CORPUS CHRISTI. SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ALSO EXIST EAST OF THE EXTREME DROUGHT AREA AND EXTEND WEST OF A LINE FROM EDNA TO BLOOMINGTON TO ROCKPORT. MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS AREA...AND ARE LOCATED OVER THE REMAINDER OF NUECES AND SAN PATRICIO COUNTIES...THEN INCLUDE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF JIM WELLS COUNTY NORTH OF BEN BOLT...THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF DUVAL COUNTY NORTH OF BENEVIDES...THE REMAINDER OF MCMULLEN COUNTY...AND MOST OF LA SALLE COUNTY MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF ENCINAL. MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ALSO EXIST EAST OF THE SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS LINE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THIS PORTION OF THE HSA. ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXIST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS AREA...AND INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH TEXAS. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS. ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE WEB SITE...AS OF JANUARY 22 BURN BANS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...LIVE OAK...BEE...JIM WELLS...DUVAL...VICTORIA AND CALHOUN COUNTIES. RESIDENTS IN THE OTHER COUNTIES NOT IN BURN BANS SHOULD CONTACT COUNTY OFFICIALS TO ENSURE THAT BURNING IS ALLOWED. ALSO... RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT WHEN DOING ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WHICH INVOLVE FIRE OR SPARKS...BY MAKING SURE WATER IS READILY AVAILABLE SHOULD AN UNWANTED FIRE BEGIN...ESPECIALLY DURING TIMES WHEN AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ARE BELOW 50 PERCENT AND WINDS ARE HIGH. TO CONSERVE WATER...RESIDENTS SHOULD WATER THEIR LAWNS ONLY WHEN ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY...AS GRASSES ARE DORMANT WITH THE COOLER WEATHER. IF YOU MUST WATER YOUR LAWN...IT IS BEST TO DO SO BETWEEN 6 PM AND 10 AM. WATERING LAWNS AND LANDSCAPES DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS RESULTS IN LESS SOIL PERCOLATION AND GREATER EVAPORATION. AGRICULTURAL AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. THE LATEST SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY GRAPHIC FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO SHOW SLIGHTLY BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL SOIL CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS...WITH THE HIGHEST DEFICITS OVER THE VICTORIA AREA. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT FOR JANUARY 21 2009...WINTER CROPS WERE MOISTURE STRESSED. LIVESTOCK WERE STILL BEING SUPPLEMENTED WITH HAY AND PROTEIN. SOME FARMERS WERE STILL DELAYING THE PLANTING OF SOME WINTER CROPS DUE TO THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT SOIL MOISTURE. FINALLY... MOISTURE WAS NEEDED FOR THE PLANTING OF THIS YEAR'S SORGHUM CROP. FIRE DANGER HAZARDS. USING A FIVE DAY AVERAGE...A HIGH FIRE DANGER EXISTS OVER ALL OF THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...EXCEPT FOR ARANSAS COUNTY...THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF REFUGIO AND CALHOUN COUNTIES AND THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS SAN PATRICIO AND NUECES COUNTIES. (LOWER FIRE DANGER). AT TIMES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...THE FIRE DANGER HAS BEEN ELEVATED DUE TO LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES AND MODERATE WINDS...WITH CONDITIONS EXCEEDING RED FLAG CRITERION ON A FEW DAYS. AS OF JANUARY 22 2009 ALL COUNTIES HAVE INDICES ABOVE 500 (BUT BELOW 700)...WITH ONLY THE COUNTIES OF CALHOUN...KLEBERG AND WEBB HAVING INDICES BELOW 600. INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS IF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CONTINUES TO EVADE SOUTH TEXAS. AS WINTER CONTINUES...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG BUT DRY COLD FRONTS COULD BRING RED FLAG CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS. RIVER AND HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS. EXCEPT FOR THE RIO GRANDE AND THE LAREDO WATER SUPPLY...RIVER AND CREEK LEVELS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH RESERVOIRS CONTINUING TO FALL. AS OF JANUARY 22 2009...THE LEVEL AT CHOKE CANYON DAM WAS 215.0 FEET (80.6 PERCENT CAPACITY)...WITH LAKE CORPUS CHRISTI AT 88.6 FEET (63.9 PERCENT CAPACITY). THE COMBINED SYSTEM CAPACITY NOW STANDS AT 76.1 PERCENT...WHICH IS 0.9 PERCENTAGE POINTS LOWER THAN ON JANUARY 8 2009. THE POOL LEVEL AT COLETO CREEK WAS AT 94.7 FEET...ABOUT THE SAME AS TWO WEEKS AGO. CANYON LAKE FELL BY ONLY 0.3 FEET...WITH THE LEVEL NOW AT 897.6 FEET...THE LOWEST LEVEL SINCE THE DAM WAS CREATED. THE RIVER LEVEL ON THE GUADALUPE RIVER AT VICTORIA HAS REMAINED AROUND 6.0 FEET OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS...CORRESPONDING ROUGHLY TO A FLOW OF 430 CUBIC FEET PER SECOND (CFS). SINCE CANYON DAM CONTINUES TO RELEASE WATER...FLOWS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL SUBSTANTIALLY. AS LONG AS FLOWS ON THE GUADALUPE RIVER REMAIN ABOVE 150 CFS...THE CITY OF VICTORIA CAN CONTINUE TO OBTAIN WATER FROM THE GUADALUPE RIVER. CLIMATE SUMMARY... RAINFALL HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL SO FAR FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY OVER ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS...WHERE PERCENT OF NORMAL MONTHLY RAINFALL HAS BEEN BELOW 10 PERCENT. IN FACT...MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED ZERO PERCENT OF THEIR NORMAL MONTHLY RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO WORSEN OVER SOUTH TEXAS. PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS... THERE IS VERY LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE EIGHT TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD JANUARY 30 THROUGH FEBRUARY 5 2009 INDICATES A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL. THE FEBRUARY 2009 OUTLOOK SHOWS SHOWS A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL ALSO SHOWS A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ALSO...SINCE IT HAS BEEN ANNOUNCED THAT THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IS NOW IN A MODERATE LA NINA...WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE OVER SOUTH TEXAS IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THUS...THE DROUGHT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND SPREAD OVER THE ABNORMALLY DRY AREAS THROUGH THE END OF APRIL. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED ON OR JUST AFTER FEBRUARY 5 FOR ALL COUNTIES IN SOUTH TEXAS. RELATED WEB SITES...
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (INCLUDES DROUGHT AND SOIL MOISTURE OUTLOOKS...DROUGHT ARCHIVES AND TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL OUTLOOKS)...
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (INCLUDES ONLY TEXAS)...
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/dm_state.htm?tx,s
TEXAS DROUGHT MONITORING SITE...
http://www.txwin.net/monitoring/meteorological/drought/indices.htm
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...
http://www.drought.noaa.gov/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
TEXAS INTERAGENCY COORDINATION CENTER (TICC)...
http://www.tamu.edu/ticc/
TEXAS BURN BANS...
http://tfsfrp.tamu.edu/wildfires/decban.png
TEXAS KBDI...
http://webgis.tamu.edu/tfs/kbdi_daily/kbdicounty.png
ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...
NWS.... http://www.weather.gov/water/
USGS... http://water.usgs.gov/
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 300 PINSON DRIVE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 78406 PHONE: 361-289-0959 SR-CRP.webmaster@noaa.gov KRR