HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 717 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008
...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...
...WELCOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL HELPS TO LOWER RAINFALL DEFICITS OVER SOME LOCATIONS BUT WAS INSUFFICIENT TO DRAMATICALLY CHANGE THE CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH TEXAS...
SYNOPSIS... WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FINALLY WAS OBSERVED OVER SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURRED FROM APRIL 26TH THROUGH APRIL 28TH...AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK INTERACTED WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND A COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1/2 INCH WERE OBSERVED OVER SOUTH TEXAS...WITH SCATTERED RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES ALSO OBSERVED. UNFORTUNATELY...ONE OF THE AREAS WHICH RECEIVED THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL...ONE HALF INCH OR LESS...WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WEBB AND DUVAL COUNTIES...WHERE EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST. ALTHOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED RAINFALL WAS BENEFICIAL...RAINFALL OVER MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS HAS REMAINED BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS.
BECAUSE OF THIS...DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH TEXAS HAVE SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE SINCE MID APRIL. ACCORDING TO THE APRIL 29 DROUGHT MONITOR PRODUCT...THE FOLLOWING CONDITIONS EXIST OVER SOUTH TEXAS...
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST APPROXIMATELY WEST AND SOUTH OF A REALITOS TO ENCINAL TO ASHERTON LINE...
EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST EAST OF THE EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS BUT NEAR AND WEST OF A PREMONT TO ALICE TO OAKVILLE LINE...
SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST EAST OF THE EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS LINE BUT NEAR AND WEST OF A KINGSVILLE TO AGUA DULCE TO MATHIS TO PAWNEE LINE...
MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST EAST OF THE SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS LINE...ENCOMPASSING THE REMAINDER OF KLEBERG COUNTY... AND NEAR AND WEST OF A CORPUS CHRISTI TO SINTON TO SKIDMORE TO KARNES CITY LINE...
ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED EAST OF THE MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS LINE...COVERING THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH TEXAS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION OR CLARIFICATION...SEE EITHER (ALL LINKS IN LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/DM_STATE.HTM?TX,S OR FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTRY SEE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML.
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... THE LATEST SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY GRAPHIC FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER SHOWS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS OVER ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS. THIS IS A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS...DUE TO THE RAINFALL RECENTLY RECEIVED. ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS A & M AGRICULTURAL PROGRAM CROP AND WEATHER REPORT FROM APRIL 30...DESPITE THE RECENT TWO DAY RAINFALL...WARM... WINDY AND DRY WEATHER WAS THE RULE (MEANING HIGHER EVAPORATION RATES). THE LACK OF SOIL MOISTURE SLOWED THE GROWTH OF COTTON AND SMALL GRAINS...WHILE THE WHEAT HARVEST HAS BEGUN. SOME HAY WAS HARVESTED...AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS HAD TO SUPPLEMENTALLY FEED BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF FORAGE. FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE HTTP://AGNEWS.TAMU.EDU (ALL LOWER CASE).
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... A MODERATE FIRE DANGER EXISTS OVER MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS...AS RECENT RAINFALL HAS TEMPORARILY HELPED TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER... THESE IMPROVED CONDITIONS WILL NOT LAST UNLESS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURS AGAIN. AS THE MONTH OF MAY CONTINUES...THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN- PRODUCING COLD FRONTS AND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS WILL DECREASE... AS THE POLAR JET BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH.
MOST LOCATIONS HAVE LOWER COUNTY-AVERAGE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES (KBDI) ON MAY 1 THAN THEY HAD ON APRIL 16. HOWEVER... INDICES REMAIN HIGH OVER THE INLAND COUNTIES AND OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES. AVERAGE KBDI VALUES OF 600 OR HIGHER ARE NOTED OVER WEBB...DUVAL AND JIM WELLS COUNTIES...WITH VALUES BETWEEN 500 AND 600 OVER KLEBERG...LA SALLE...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...MCMULLEN...LIVE OAK AND BEE COUNTIES (AVERAGE VALUES OF 500 OR LESS EXIST OVER THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH TEXAS COUNTIES). HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME PORTIONS OF THE COUNTIES HAVING AVERAGE KBDI VALUES OF 500 OR MORE HAVE MUCH HIGHER LOCALIZED KBDI VALUES...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN WEBB AND DUVAL COUNTIES (SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK...ALL LOWER CASE HTTP://WEBGIS.TAMU.EDU/TFS/KBDI_DAILY/KBDI4KM.PNG).
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... RAINFALL RECEIVED DURING THE PAST WEEK OVER THE NUECES RIVER BASIN HELPED TO DIMINISH THE RATE OF WATER LOSS OVER THE RESERVOIRS...AS INCREASED WATER USAGE AND HIGH EVAPORATION RATES TAKE THEIR TOLL ON WATER LEVELS. AS OF MAY 1...THE LEVEL AT CHOKE CANYON DAM WAS 219.0 FEET (94.6 PERCENT)...WITH LAKE CORPUS CHRISTI AT 93.0 FEET (94.1 PERCENT). THE COMBINED SYSTEM CAPACITY STANDS AT 94.1 PERCENT...WHICH IS ONLY 0.3 PERCENTAGE POINTS LOWER THAN ON APRIL 17. RELEASES AT LAKE AMISTAD CONTINUED TO LOWER WATER LEVELS THERE...WITH THE RESERVOIR NOW AT 1102.2 FEET (ABOUT 73 PERCENT CAPACITY)...OR 3.7 FEET LOWER THAN TWO WEEKS AGO. COLETO CREEK RESERVOIR REMAINED AROUND 97.7 FEET.
RESTRICTIONS/ACTIONS... ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE WEB SITE ON APRIL 17... (HTTP://TFSFRP.TAMU.EDU/WILDFIRES/DECBAN.PNG)...BURN BANS REMAIN OVER THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...LA SALLE...WEBB...LIVE OAK...BEE... NUECES...KLEBERG AND JIM WELLS. THAT MEANS THAT BURN BANS NO LONGER EXIST OVER DUVAL...SAN PATRICIO AND REFUGIO COUNTIES. RESIDENTS IN COUNTIES RECENTLY REMOVED FROM OR NOT IN BURN BANS SHOULD CONTACT COUNTY OFFICIALS BEFORE BURNING...TO ENSURE OUTDOOR BURNING IS ALLOWED FOR THEIR LOCATION. WHILE NO WATER RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO USE LAWN-WATERING CONSERVATION MEASURES. RESIDENTS ARE ALSO URGED TO REMAIN VIGILANT WHEN DOING ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WHICH INVOLVE FIRE OR COULD PRODUCE SPARKS...MAKING CERTAIN THAT WATER IS QUICKLY AVAILABLE IF AN UNWANTED FIRE OR SMOLDERING BEGINS. FINALLY...MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT DISCARD LIGHTED CIGARETTES FROM THEIR VEHICLES.
OUTLOOK... OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAINFALL MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES FARTHER EAST. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MAY 8. THE EIGHT TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD MAY 9 THROUGH MAY 15 EXPECTS BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE MOST RECENT MONTHLY OUTLOOK FOR MAY EXPECTS A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL (BUT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES). HOWEVER...THE NEW DROUGHT OUTLOOK PRODUCT ISSUED ON MAY 1 EXPECTS THE DROUGHT TO PERSIST...IF NOT INTENSIFY THROUGH JULY...AS BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE REGION. (SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK...ALL LOWER CASE: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/EXPERT_ASSESSMEMT/SEASON_DROUGH T.GIF). FINALLY...THE SOIL MOISTURE OUTLOOK THROUGH THE END OF JULY INDICATES BELOW NORMAL SOIL CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA.
THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED IN MID MAY.
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GW