HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1015 PM EST FRI JAN 11 2008
...DROUGHT STATEMENT...
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT EARLY WINTER PRECIPITATION...DROUGHT CONDITIONS
HAVE EASED ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA. AS OF FRIDAY JANUARY 11, 2008...34
COUNTIES ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH HAVE BEEN LIFTED FROM THE DROUGHT
WATCH AND PLACED BACK INTO NORMAL CATEGORY. 20 COUNTIES REMAIN IN
DROUGHT WATCH STATUS...AND CLINTON COUNTY...THE ONLY COUNTY WHICH
WAS IN WARNING STATUS...HAS BEEN IMPROVED TO WATCH STATUS.
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CURRENT DROUGHT STATUS FOR PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES ARE AS FOLLOWS:
*** DROUGHT EMERGENCY COUNTIES: 0 ***
NONE
*** DROUGHT WARNING COUNTIES: 0 ***
NONE
*** DROUGHT WATCH COUNTIES: 20 ***
ADAMS... BERKS... BUCKS... CAMBRIA... CAMERON... CENTRE...
CLEARFIELD... CLINTON... CUMBERLAND... DAUPHIN... ELK... FRANKLIN...
JUNIATA... LYCOMING... MONTOUR... NORTHUMBERLAND... PERRY...
POTTER... SCHUYLKILL AND UNION.
*** NORMAL STATUS COUNTIES: 47 ***
ALLEGHENY... ARMSTRONG... BEAVER... BEDFORD... BLAIR... BRADFORD...
BUTLER... CARBON... CHESTER... CLARION... COLUMBIA... CRAWFORD...
DELAWARE... ERIE... FAYETTE... FOREST... FULTON... GREENE...
HUNTINGDON... INDIANA... JEFFERSON... LACKAWANNA... LANCASTER...
LAWRENCE... LEBANON... LEHIGH... LUZERNE... MCKEAN... MERCER...
MIFFLIN... MONROE... MONTGOMERY... NORTHAMPTON... PHILADELPHIA...
PIKE... SNYDER... SOMERSET... SULLIVAN... SUSQUEHANNA... TIOGA...
VENANGO... WARREN... WAYNE... WESTMORELAND... WASHINGTON... WYOMING
AND YORK.
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...DROUGHT TERMS AND DEFINITIONS...
A DROUGHT WATCH IS THE FIRST OF THREE DROUGHT STAGES UNDER
PENNSYLVANIA'S DROUGHT OPERATING PLAN. IT IS USED TO ALERT
GOVERNMENT AGENCIES...PUBLIC WATER SUPPLIERS...WATER USERS AND THE
PUBLIC REGARDING THE ONSET OF CONDITIONS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL
FOR FUTURE DROUGHT RELATED PROBLEMS. A DROUGHT WATCH CALLS FOR A
VOLUNTARY 5 PERCENT REDUCTION OF NON-ESSENTIAL WATER USE.
A DROUGHT WARNING IS THE SECOND OF THREE DROUGHT STAGES UNDER
PENNSYLVANIA'S DROUGHT OPERATING PLAN. IT IS USED TO PREPARE FOR A
COORDINATED RESPONSE TO IMMINENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL
WATER SUPPLY SHORTAGES...RELIEVE STRESSED RESOURCES...AND IF
POSSIBLE FORESTALL THE NEED TO IMPOSE MANDATORY WATER USE
RESTRICTIONS. A DROUGHT WARNING CALLS FOR A VOLUNTARY 10 TO 15
PERCENT REDUCTION IN WATER CONSUMPTION.
A DROUGHT EMERGENCY IS THE THIRD AND MOST SEVERE STAGE OF THE THREE
DROUGHT DECLARATIONS AND IMPOSES MANDATORY WATER RESTRICTIONS ON
NON-ESSENTIAL WATER USE. A DROUGHT EMERGENCY CAN ONLY BE DECLARED BY
THE GOVERNOR.
DROUGHT DECLARATIONS ARE BASED ON SEVERAL FACTORS INCLUDING:
1. STREAMFLOW LEVELS
2. PRECIPITATION
3. GROUNDWATER
4. SOIL MOISTURE (PALMER DROUGHT INDEX)
5. RESERVOIR STORAGE LEVELS
...HISTORY OF THE CURRENT DROUGHT...
AFTER A WET SUMMER AND FALL SEASON OF 2006...THE WINTER OF 2006-2007
WAS DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL SNOWFALL OVER MUCH OF THE COMMONWEALTH.
THEN DURING THE SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER OF 2007...RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS MUCH OF PENNSYLVANIA. BY MID
SUMMER...STREAM FLOWS AND GROUND WATER LEVELS WERE LOW AND
FALLING. WHILE CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY DRY DURING THE LATE SUMMER
AND FALL OF 2007...THERE WERE SEVERAL PERIODS OF WET WEATHER...
HELPING GROUND WATER AND SURFACE WATER LEVELS TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT.
DURING THE LATE FALL AND EARLY WINTER...CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
MOIST...CONTINUING TO EASE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH.
PENNSYLVANIA'S DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION /DEP/ ISSUED
A DROUGHT WATCH IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW STREAM FLOWS...BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION...AND LOWERING GROUND WATER LEVELS FOR MOST OF
PENNSYLVANIA ON AUGUST 6 2007. ON SEPTEMBER 4TH...26 COUNTIES WERE
LIFTED FROM DROUGHT WATCH STATUS BY THE DEP. ON OCTOBER 5TH
HOWEVER...MANY COUNTIES WERE ADDED BACK TO THE DROUGHT WATCH
LIST...AND CLINTON COUNTY WAS PLACED INTO DROUGHT WARNING. AS OF MID
WINTER...WET CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN ALLOWED MANY COUNTIES TO BE
REMOVED FROM WATCH AND WARNING STATUS.
...CURRENT CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
...STREAMFLOW LEVELS...
RECENT RAIN...SNOWMELT AND ICE DURING DECEMBER AND EARLY JANUARY HAS
ALLOWED MANY STREAMS TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGHOUT
THE STATE. WELL OVER HALF OF ALL STREAM GAGING LOCATIONS WERE
SHOWING STREAMFLOWS IN THE UPPER 90TH PERCENTILE AS OF EARLY
JANUARY. CURRENT STREAM FLOWS CAN BE FOUND AT THE USGS BY VISITING:
http://water.usgs.gov/waterwatch/
...PRECIPITATION...
FOR THE LAST 30 DAYS...PRECIPITATION TOTALS GENERALLY RANGED FROM 3
TO 5 INCHES OVER ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS REPRESENTS ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR ALL OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES
FOR THE LAST 30 DAYS CAN BE FOUND AT:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/marfc/Maps/PANY_counties_30_color.htm
FOR THE PAST 6 MONTHS (180 DAYS)...PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA RANGED FROM ABOUT 2 INCHES BELOW NORMAL TO 3
INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. THE GREATEST DEFICITS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE
UPPER ALLEGHENY BASINS...WHERE PRECIPITATION DEFICITS FOR 180 DAYS
WERE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES. PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES FOR THE LAST
180 DAYS CAN BE FOUND AT :
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/marfc/Maps/PANY_counties_180_color.htm
A TABLE SHOWING PRECIPITATION FOR THE LAST 90...180 AND 365 DAYS
ON A COUNTY-BY-COUNTY BASIS IS INCLUDED BELOW.
GROUNDWATER...
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...GROUNDWATER LEVELS HAVE NOW
REBOUNDED TO NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ONLY ACROSS A FEW
COUNTIES ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA HAVE GROUNDWATER LEVELS BELOW
NORMAL. REMEMBER THAT GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE SLOW TO RESPOND...AND A
GOOD INDICATOR OF LONG TERM DRYNESS CONDITIONS. CURRENT GROUNDWATER
LEVELS CAN BE FOUND FROM THE USGS BY VISITING:
http://pa.water.usgs.gov/monitor/gw/
SOIL MOISTURE...
THE LATEST PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX SHOWS INCREASINGLY WET
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH. CONDITIONS ARE UNUSUALLY MOIST...
VERY MOIST...OR EXTREMELY MOIST OVER MOST OF PENNSYLVANIA AS OF EARLY
JANUARY.
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THE FOLLOWING IS A LIST OF PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES IN CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA COMPILED ON JANUARY 7TH:
...PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES...
MONTH LAST LAST
SO 90 DAYS 180 DAYS LAST 365 DAYS
FAR TOTAL/DEP. TOTAL/DEP. TOTAL/DEP./ %
ADAMS PA 0.1 11.7 1.9 20.0 -0.4 36.6 -5.8 -13
BEDFORD PA 0.1 9.6 1.0 19.7 1.5 35.5 -2.5 -6
BLAIR PA 0.1 9.6 0.9 21.4 2.7 37.7 -1.3 -2
CAMBRIA PA 0.6 11.4 2.4 23.6 3.2 42.1 -1.7 -3
CAMERON PA 0.3 11.9 2.6 21.5 1.6 41.0 0.6 1
CENTRE PA 0.2 10.3 1.2 18.6 -0.9 36.0 -3.9 -9
CLEARFIELD PA 0.3 11.4 2.5 20.7 1.3 41.0 0.4 1
CLINTON PA 0.2 10.2 1.1 18.1 -1.6 34.4 -5.4 -13
COLUMBIA PA 0.2 13.8 4.4 22.0 1.5 37.6 -3.1 -7
CUMBERLAND PA 0.1 11.5 1.9 20.1 0.5 35.8 -4.5 -10
DAUPHIN PA 0.1 12.5 2.9 22.8 2.8 39.7 -1.1 -2
ELK PA 0.5 12.8 3.0 21.5 0.5 39.5 -3.4 -7
FRANKLIN PA 0.1 11.3 1.6 20.1 0.2 35.6 -5.6 -13
FULTON PA 0.1 9.0 0.1 17.6 -1.0 30.7 -7.8 -19
HUNTINGDON PA 0.1 9.8 1.0 19.0 0.4 34.8 -3.2 -7
JUNIATA PA 0.1 11.1 1.6 20.5 0.7 35.6 -4.7 -11
LANCASTER PA 0.1 12.6 2.9 20.7 -0.2 40.5 -1.0 -2
LEBANON PA 0.1 13.6 3.4 22.8 1.5 42.7 -0.2 0
LYCOMING PA 0.2 11.6 2.2 20.5 0.7 36.5 -3.4 -7
MCKEAN PA 0.3 10.0 -0.2 20.2 -1.9 34.4 -9.3 -20
MIFFLIN PA 0.1 10.2 0.9 19.1 -0.4 34.6 -5.5 -13
MONTOUR PA 0.1 13.6 4.1 21.1 1.0 36.8 -3.6 -8
NORTHUMBERLAND PA 0.1 14.3 4.7 21.9 1.5 38.0 -3.2 -7
PERRY PA 0.1 11.7 2.5 19.6 0.3 36.2 -2.8 -6
POTTER PA 0.2 11.7 2.4 22.1 2.0 40.1 0.0 0
SCHUYLKILL PA 0.1 15.4 4.1 23.8 0.2 42.4 -4.7 -9
SNYDER PA 0.1 12.1 2.0 19.3 -1.9 34.8 -7.8 -17
SOMERSET PA 0.5 11.5 2.3 24.2 4.1 43.4 -0.4 0
SULLIVAN PA 0.3 14.4 4.0 24.1 2.2 40.8 -2.5 -5
TIOGA PA 0.1 10.6 2.6 19.8 2.1 34.7 -1.0 -2
UNION PA 0.1 12.3 2.5 20.2 -0.4 36.1 -5.6 -12
WARREN PA 0.3 10.5 0.4 22.0 0.1 36.5 -6.3 -14
YORK PA 0.1 11.1 1.8 20.2 0.8 37.9 -2.1 -4
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SHORT TERM FORECASTS SHOW UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH SOME SNOW
EXPECTED FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL TO
MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK COVERING THE PERIOD FROM JANUARY 17TH
THROUGH JANUARY 21ST IS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NORMAL TO
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK COVERING THE PERIOD FROM JANUARY 19TH
THROUGH JANUARY 25TH IS FOR ABOVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION.
THE LATEST 30 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JANUARY 2008 CALLS FOR WEATHER
PATTERNS TO FAVOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA.
THE 90 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JANUARY 2008 THROUGH MARCH 2008 SHOWS
WEATHER PATTERNS FAVORING WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...BUT NO
CLEAR SIGNALS ON PRECIPITATION. THIS MEANS THAT THERE ARE EQUAL
CHANCES FOR ABOVE OR BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR THE 3 MONTH
PERIOD.
TO HELP CONSERVE WATER...HERE ARE A FEW WATER CONSERVATION TIPS:
1. TAKE SHORTER SHOWERS
2. RUN DISHWASHERS AND WASHING MACHINES WITH FULL LOADS
3. DO NOT LET WATER RUN WHEN SHAVING OR BRUSHING TEETH
4. FIX ANY LEAKS IN FAUCETS (INDOORS AND OUTDOORS)
5. INSTALL WATER SAVING FIXTURES SUCH AS LOW-FLOW SHOWER HEADS
THIS IS THE FOURTEENTH OF A CONTINUING SERIES OF DROUGHT STATEMENTS
WHICH WILL BE ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE...GENERALLY ON THE SECOND AND
FOURTH WEDNESDAYS OF THE MONTH. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ON
OR ABOUT JANUARY 23RD 2008.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE THE STATE COLLEGE NWS WEB PAGE AT:
http://weather.gov/statecollege/
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT CAN BE FOUND ON THE PENNSYLVANIA
DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION WEB PAGE AT:
http://www.depweb.state.pa.us/
CLICK ON THE DROUGHT MONITORING LINK UNDER THE WATER TOPICS PULL DOWN MENU.
JUNG