DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 1251 PM CST MON JAN 5 2009
...DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SYNOPSIS... ONCE AGAIN RAINFALL DURING THE MONTH OF DECEMBER WAS WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. DURING THE MONTH SEVERAL COLD FRONTS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION AND PROVIDED COLDER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION...BUT LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. MANY LOCATIONS REPORTED GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE HALF OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING NEAR ONE INCH.
THE LACK OF RAINFALL DURING DECEMBER ONLY INCREASED YEARLY RAINFALL DEFICITS. FOR THE YEAR MOST LOCATIONS HAVE REPORTED BETWEEN 10 AND 20 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THERE ARE STILL SECTIONS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THAT HAVE SEEN LESS THAN 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL SINCE THE BEGINNING OF 2008. RAINFALL DEFICITS ACROSS MOST AREAS ARE 10 TO 15 INCHES... WITH SOME LOCATIONS DOWN AS MUCH AS 20 INCHES FOR THE YEAR.
THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID DECEMBER 30TH SHOWED AN AREA OF (D4)...EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CENTERED OVER HAYS... COMAL...BEXAR...CALDWELL...BLANCO...KENDALL...GUADALUPE...TRAVIS AND BASTROP COUNTIES. AROUND THE (D4) REGION THERE WAS A LARGE AREA OF (D3)...EXTREME DROUGHT SEVERITY COVERING A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SURROUNDING THE (D3)...EXTREME DROUGHT REGION WAS AN EXPANDING AREA OF (D2)...SEVERE DROUGHT THAT COVERED THE MAJORITY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION ARE NOW CLASSIFIED AS (D1)...MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...
FIRE DANGER IS MODERATE ACROSS THE REGION. MOST FUELS ARE CURED AND THE CONTINUED LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINS HAS INCREASED THE WILDFIRE THREAT. AS OF JANUARY 5TH BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR 27 COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTIES WITH ESTABLISHED OUTDOOR BURN BANS INCLUDE...ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP... BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DIMMIT...EDWARDS... GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL... KERR...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE... VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON AND WILSON COUNTIES. RESIDENTS IN COUNTIES NOT LISTED SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL COUNTY JUDGE`S OFFICE BEFORE DECIDING TO BURN...IN ORDER TO ENSURE THAT THE COUNTY HAS NOT ENACTED A BURN BAN.
THE JANUARY 5TH KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED THAT ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WAS IN THE 600 TO 800 RANGE. VAL VERDE COUNTY WAS THE EXCEPTION AND REPORTED A KBDI INDEX OF 400 TO 500. THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL. REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
THE DECEMBER 10TH TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS A AND M AGRICULTURAL PROGRAM...THE FOLLOWING AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS WERE NOTED. THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SINCE EARLY SEPTEMBER. FORAGE AVAILABILITY WAS BELOW AVERAGE GOING INTO THE WINTER DORMANT SEASON. THE CABBAGE...CUCUMBER...AND SPINACH HARVEST CONTINUED. OTHER FALL VEGETABLE CROPS WERE MAKING GOOD PROGRESS UNDER HEAVY IRRIGATION. PLANTING ROW CROPS UNDER DRYLAND CONDITIONS NEXT SPRING MAY BE VERY LIMITED UNLESS ABOVE-AVERAGE RAINFALL IS RECEIVED DURING WINTER.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
SINCE JANUARY 1, 2008 MUCH OF THE REGION HAS SEEN 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN. HIGHER AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES HAVE FALLEN ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND IN THE DEL RIO REGION ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE REGION ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS MANY LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED LESS THAN 10 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE YEAR.
PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2008 TO DECEMBER 31, 2008 AND DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:
2008 RAINFALL NORMAL TO DATE DEPARTURE AUSTIN MABRY 16.07 33.65 -17.58 AUSTIN BERGSTROM 15.98 34.72 -18.74 SAN ANTONIO 13.76 32.92 -19.16 DEL RIO 17.21 18.80 -1.59
DECEMBER RAINFALL WAS WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST LOCATIONS RECORDED BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN DURING DECEMBER...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR ONE INCH ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
DEL RIO ENDED THE YEAR WITH 92 PERCENT OF NORMAL YEARLY RAINFALL. DURING DECEMBER DEL RIO RECORDED 0.41 OF AN INCH OF RAIN AND THIS WAS 0.34 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 0.75 OF AN INCH.
FOR THE YEAR SAN ANTONIO RECEIVED 42 PERCENT OF THE NORMAL YEARLY RAINFALL. SAN ANTONIO REPORTED 0.25 OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL DURING DECEMBER. THIS WAS 1.71 INCHES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 1.96 INCHES. FOR THE PERIOD FROM JANUARY THROUGH DECEMBER SAN ANTONIO REPORTED 13.76 INCHES OF RAIN AND THIS WAS THE 3RD DRIEST JANUARY TO DECEMBER PERIOD ON RECORD. RECORDS BEGAN BACK IN 1871.
AUSTIN MABRY HAS RECORDED 48 PERCENT OF THEIR NORMAL YEARLY RAINFALL. AUSTIN MABRY REPORTED 0.40 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN DECEMBER. THIS WAS 2.04 INCHES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 2.44 INCHES. FOR THE YEAR THE 16.07 INCHES OF RAINFALL MADE THIS PERIOD THE 4TH DRIEST ON RECORD. RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1856.
AUSTIN BERGSTROM RECEIVED 46 PERCENT OF THEIR NORMAL YEARLY RAINFALL. DURING DECEMBER AUSTIN BERGSTROM REPORTED 0.38 OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS WAS 2.15 INCHES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 2.53 INCHES. FOR THE PERIOD OF JANUARY THROUGH DECEMBER THE 15.98 INCHES OF RAINFALL MADE THIS PERIOD THE 5TH DRIEST ON RECORD. RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1943.
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR EARLY JANUARY.
THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 10 DAYS IS CALLING FOR EQUAL CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL...NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GREATER CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL.
THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL IS CALLING FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND EQUAL CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL...ABOVE NORMAL OR NORMAL RAINFALL.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
THE MAIN IMPACTS OF DROUGHT HAVE BEEN TO AGRICULTURE...BUT THE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE BEING FELT AS RESERVOIRS...LAKES AND AQUIFERS CONTINUE FALLING. THE LACK OF RAINFALL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTS IS CAUSING INCREASED EVAPORATION LEVELS OVER THOSE NORMALLY SEEN DURING THE WINTER.
MOST RIVERS...MOST STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE BELOW NORMAL FLOW LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGE IS IN THE 10 TO 24 PERCENT (BELOW NORMAL) RANGE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION. THE RIO GRANDE BASIN IS NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY DUE TO RESERVOIR RELEASES IN MEXICO.
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF DECEMBER 31ST...
ALL AREA LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN SEVERAL FEET BELOW NORMAL POOL ELEVATIONS AND CONTINUE TO FALL. LAKE AMISTAD REMAINS HIGH FROM RAINFALL UPSTREAM AND IN MEXICO DURING THE LATE SUMMER. BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND NORMAL POOLS.
NORMAL POOL (FT) LATEST ELEVATIONS (FT) MEDINA LAKE 1064.2 1042.80 CANYON LAKE 909 897.99 LAKE TRAVIS 681 655.59 LAKE BUCHANAN 1020 1004.93 LAKE GEORGETOWN 791 771.69 LAKE AMISTAD 1117 1118.49
RESTRICTIONS...
MANY LOCATIONS HAVE IMPLEMENTED WATER RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LACK OF RAINFALL AND DECREASING SUPPLIES. ALL LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY FEBRUARY 6TH OR SOONER AS NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN AREA CONDITIONS.
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RELATED WEB SITES...
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES. (ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN ALL LOWER CASE)
AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: HTTP://WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/EWX
NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER: HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR: HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST: HTTP://WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC/
UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS): HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/
UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE): HTTP://WWW.SWF.USACE.ARMY.MIL/
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION: HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGIST AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USACE AND USGS.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE NAY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUND THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 2090 AIRPORT ROAD NEW BRAUNFELS TEXAS 78130 830-606-3617
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