HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 300 PM CST FRI MAY 2 2008
...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...
...DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN UNCHANGED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
...DESPITE SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS...DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS HAVE RECEIVED LESS THAN 1 INCH OF RAINFALL SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR. THE CONTINUED LACK OF RAIN HAS RESULTED IN ABNORMALLY DRY TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. DESPITE SOME AREAS RECEIVING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL SINCE APRIL 17...DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED THE SAME OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. AN AREA OF D3...EXTREME DROUGHT...INTENSITY PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS...EXTENDING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE FROM DEL RIO TO MCALLEN THEN NORTH TO JUST WEST OF BEEVILLE TO ROCKSPRINGS TO DEL RIO. THE AREA OF D4...EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT...INTENSITY EXTENDS FROM A LINE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE FROM NORTHERN MAVERICK COUNTY SOUTH TO FALCON DAM THEN EAST TO FALFURRIAS AND BACK NORTHWEST TO CARRIZO SPRINGS.
SYNOPSIS...
DESPITE SOME RAINFALL IN APRIL...DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE TO AGRICULTURE SINCE RESERVOIRS, LAKES AND AQUIFERS REMAIN AT OR NEAR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL POOLS FROM THE ABUNDANT RAINFALL THAT FELL ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE SPRING AND SUMMER OF 2007.
SINCE JANUARY 1, 2008 RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION HAS BEEN 3 TO 6 INCHES. HIGHER AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE REGION ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS HAS HAD BELOW 1 INCH OF RAIN FOR THE YEAR SO FAR.
PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2008 TO APRIL 30, 2008 AND DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:
2008 RAINFALL NORMAL TO DATE DEPARTURE AUSTIN MABRY 7.67 8.47 -0.80 AUSTIN BERGSTROM 8.23 9.15 -0.92 SAN ANTONIO 3.26 7.84 -4.58 DEL RIO 0.67 4.17 -3.50
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... MOST AREA LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL POOL ELEVATIONS. BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND NORMAL POOLS.
NORMAL POOL (FT) LATEST ELEVATIONS (FT) MEDINA LAKE 1064.2 1058.18 CANYON LAKE 909 908.66 LAKE TRAVIS 681 678.23 LAKE BUCHANAN 1020 1017.99 LAKE GEORGETOWN 791 785.36 LAKE AMISTAD 1117 1105.87
AS EVAPORATION RATES AND IRRIGATION USAGE START TO INCREASE...WE WILL BEGIN TO NOTICE LEVELS DECREASING IF WE DO NOT RECEIVE ADEQUATE RAINFALL.
RESTRICTIONS...
ALL LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
THE LACK OF RAINFALL HAS IMPACTED WINTER GRASSES AND WINTER CROPS THAT ARE NOT RECEIVING IRRIGATION. THIS COULD BECOME A GREATER CONCERN AS SPRING PLANTING ACTIVITIES BEGIN TO GET UNDERWAY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS. MOST RANCHERS ARE HAVING TO SUPPLEMENT FOOD DUE TO LACK OF VEGETATION.
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...
FIRE DANGER HAS WORSENED TO MODERATE TO VERY HIGH ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL. DESPITE AREA GRASSES AND FINE FUELS BEGINNING TO RETURN TO THE GROWING SEASON...SIGNIFICANT RAINS ARE STILL NEEDED TO REDUCE WILDFIRE THREAT. MANY COUNTIES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT COUNTY WIDE BURN BANS. AS OF APRIL 30 BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BLANCO...BEXAR...DIMMIT...FRIO... GUADALUPE...KARNES...KINNEY...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...UVALDE... VAL VERDE...WILSON...AND ZAVALA. RESIDENTS IN COUNTIES NOT LISTED SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL COUNTY JUDGE'S OFFICE BEFORE DECIDING TO BURN...IN ORDER TO INSURE THAT THE COUNTY HAS NOT ENACTED A BURN BAN. KENDALL COUNTY HAS ALSO MAINTAINED A DISASTER DECLARATION.
OUTLOOK...
THE LATEST LONG RANGE OUTLOOKS FOR MAY...JUNE AND JULY ARE CALLING FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW...AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR THE SAME TIME FRAME CALLS FOR A GREATER CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THE 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER IS INDICATING NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A GREATER CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL. OVERALL...WITH A LA NINA PATTERN IN PLACE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. HOPEFULLY WE WILL SEE AT LEAST NORMAL RAINFALL THAT WILL PROVIDE IMPROVEMENTS IN SOIL MOISTURE AND PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL WATER FOR AREA LAKES...RESERVOIRS AND AQUIFERS.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES. (ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN ALL LOWER CASE)
NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER: HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV
AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: HTTP://WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/EWX
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SUTTON