HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 235 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2008
...WATER RESOURCES STATEMENT AND OUTLOOK...
THIS OUTLOOK COVERS THE GRAND FORKS HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...HSA...WHICH ENCOMPASSES 35 COUNTIES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. THE PRIMARY RIVER BASINS ARE THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH...RED LAKE AND SHEYENNE RIVERS AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES. MAJOR LAKE BASINS INCLUDE DEVILS LAKE...THE UPPER AND LOWER RED LAKES AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF LAKE OF THE WOODS.
...DROUGHT APPEARING IN PARTS OF THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...
.SYNOPSIS... MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE UPPER DEVILS LAKE BASIN AS A RESULT OF BELOW AVERAGE WINTER PRECIPITATION. BASED ON PRELIMINARY DATA...ABOUT ONE HALF THE NORMAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN SINCE SEPTEMBER 2007. AROUND 2 TO 2.5 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE LEEDS...CANDO...SARLES...LANGDON AND CAVALIER AREAS DURING THE OCTOBER 2007 TO MARCH 2008 PERIOD. NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THIS PERIOD IS AROUND 4.5 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...MORE NORMAL AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION FELL THIS PAST WINTER SEASON...ESPECIALLY IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY PROPER. RECENT SIGNIFICANT SNOWS IN THE WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA LAKES AREA HAVE HELPED ALLEVIATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS THERE.
.LOCAL AREA AFFECTED... MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE AFFECTING THE TOWNER...CAVALIER AND BENSON COUNTY AREAS. ELSEWHERE DRY TO ABNORMALLY DRY TOP SOIL CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE GRAND FORKS HSA.
.CLIMATE SUMMARY... A LA NINA HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SINCE LAST FALL. THIS HELPED PRODUCE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THIS PAST WINTER SEASON...WITH NORMAL SNOWFALL. DUE TO THE COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...TOTAL MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE SNOW HAS BEEN BELOW AVERAGE.
.SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT... PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOIL MOISTURE IS LOWEST IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND IN PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. OTHERWISE TOP SOIL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SPRING PLANTING.
.RIVER AND STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS... NORMAL STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AS A RESULT OF THE SPRING SNOW MELT. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY LOW SNOW WATER CONTENT...RELATIVELY SLOW NATURE OF THE MELT AND AVAILABLE TOP SOIL STORAGE THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE SPRING FLOODING IN THE BASIN THIS YEAR.
BELOW ARE SOME CURRENT AND NORMAL STREAMFLOWS FOR APRIL 18.
STATION CURRENT FLOW CFS MEAN FLOW CFS PERCENT OF MEAN WAHPETON ND 981 1786 54 FARGO ND 2430 2330 104 HALSTAD MN 4660 9840 47 EAST GRAND FORKS MN 8250 12400 66 DRAYTON ND 11115 N/A N/A PEMBINA ND 12600 25210 50
.PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEK. THE CURRENT 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK WHICH GOES THROUGH MAY 2ND CALLS FOR CLIMATOLOGICALLY AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR MAY CALLS FOR CLIMATOLOGICALLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES... WITH AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE SUMMER CALLS FOR CLIMATOLOGICALLY AVERAGE VARIATIONS IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME THE LA NINA IS WEAKENING WITH VARIOUS INDICATORS SUGGESTING A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE SUMMER. LOCAL RESEARCH SUGGESTS THAT SUMMERS WITH A WEAKENING LA NINA TEND TO BE WARMER AND DRIER THAN THE LONG TERM AVERAGE.
SHOULD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION MATERIALIZE IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...DROUGHT CONDITIONS THERE WOULD BE SOMEWHAT ALLEVIATED. OTHERWISE NORMAL PRECIPITATION PATTERNS WOULD HELP MAINTAIN CURRENT LEVELS OF DRYNESS. ADDITIONAL ASSESSMENTS WILL BE MADE AS THE GROWING SEASON PROGRESSES.
.QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT...
MARK EWENS DROUGHT FOCAL POINT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 58201 TELEPHONE 701.772.0720 X327 Mark.Ewens@noaa.gov
.RELATED WEB SITES... LOCAL AND NATIONAL WEATHER...CLIMATE AND WATER INFORMATION... LOCAL NWS SITE
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/fgf/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION... THESE WEB SITES ARE PROVIDED FOR REFERENCE AND INFORMATION. NOAA'S NWS MAKES NO CLAIMS TO THE CONTENT OF NON NOAA WEB SITES.
UNITES STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS)...
http://water.usgs.gov/
U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE)...
http://www.mvr.usace.army.mil
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/
.ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.
.NEXT ISSUANCE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED ISSUANCE OF THE WATER RESOURCES STATEMENT AND OUTLOOK WILL BE AROUND MAY 16 2008.
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