DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1140 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2009
...FIRE SEASON IN FULL SWING AS DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST...
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SYNOPSIS...
PRECIPITATION DEFICITS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY GROWING OVER THE PAST
16 MONTHS...WITH A RE-INTENSIFICATION OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS SINCE
OCTOBER. MODERATE (D1) AND SEVERE DROUGHT (D2) CONTINUE ALONG THE
RED RIVER...WHILE SEVERE (D2) AND EVEN EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) REMAIN
IN CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES CURRENTLY HAVE SOME
DROUGHT DESIGNATION...MUCH OF THE AREA CURRENTLY DENOTED AS
ABNORMALLY DRY (D0).
AGRICULTURAL LOSSES CONTINUE TO MOUNT WITH A DISMAL START TO THE
WINTER GROWING SEASON. IN ADDITION...THE QUICKLY RE-EMERGING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS HAVE GOTTEN THE FIRE SEASON OFF TO A BLAZING START...WITH
FREQUENT COLD FRONTS MAINTAINING LOW HUMIDITY AND PERSISTENT WIND.
WITH PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS NOT FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TOTALS...IT
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE DIFFICULT TO ERASE THE MASSIVE
DEFICITS COMPILED DURING MORE THAN A YEAR OF INADEQUATE RAINFALL.
THUS...DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST OR WORSEN THE
REMAINDER OF THE WINTER.
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SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS
ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS AGRILIFE EXTENSION SERVICE...TOTAL CROP
LOSSES FOR 2008 WERE 1.1 BILLION DOLLARS. AN ADDITIONAL 290 MILLION
DOLLARS COULD BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE LIVESTOCK INDUSTRY...FOR A TOTAL
OF NEARLY 1.4 BILLION DOLLARS FOR THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR AS A WHOLE.
THERE APPEARS NO END TO MOUNTING LOSSES AS THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION
IN RECENT MONTHS HAS STRESSED NEARLY EVERY COLD SEASON CROP ACROSS
THE STATE. NEARLY ONE HALF OF ALL WINTER WHEAT WAS IN POOR OR VERY
POOR CONDITION. OATS ARE IN EVEN WORSE SHAPE...WITH NEARLY 3/4 RATED
POOR OR VERY POOR. NEARLY ONE FIFTH OF RECENTLY PLANTED OATS FAILED
TO EMERGE AT ALL.
THERE ARE ALREADY NUMEROUS CONCERNS FOR THE COMING WARM SEASON.
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SO DRY IN THE BLACKLANDS OF CENTRAL TEXAS THAT
TYPICAL NITROGEN-BASED FERTILIZERS ARE UNLIKELY TO BE VIABLE FOR THE
STAPLE CORN CROP.
WHEN 2009 BEGAN...NEARLY 2/3 OF TEXAS GRAZING LAND WAS IN POOR OR
VERY POOR CONDITION. HOWEVER...MANY NORTH TEXAS PASTURES ARE IN FAIR
OR EVEN GOOD CONDITION...OWING TO LATE SUMMER PRECIPITATION AND THE
RESULTING GROWTH. RYE GRASS REMAINS ADEQUATE THOUGH MANY CATTLE
PRODUCERS ARE NEEDING LARGE AMOUNTS OF HAY. SUPPLEMENTAL FEEDING
BEGAN EARLY IN THE COLD SEASON...THOUGH SOME AREAS HAVE HAD A HAY
SURPLUS THANKS TO THE BENEFICIAL RAINS LATE IN THE WARM SEASON.
FIRE DANGER
THE TEXAS LEGISLATURE APPROVED 5.7 MILLION DOLLARS IN REIMBURSEMENT
FUNDS TO BE DISTRIBUTED BY THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE TO LOCAL FIRE
DEPARTMENTS ACROSS THE STATE. THE MONIES ARE INTENDED TO OFFSET
COSTS INCURRED DURING THE MEMORABLE 2005-2006 FIRE SEASON. THIS IS
WELCOME NEWS FOR MANY LOCAL JURISDICTIONS WHO ARE COPING WITH THE
THIRD TROUBLESOME FIRE SEASON IN THE LAST FOUR WINTERS.
NEARLY ALL VEGETATION IS DORMANT FOR THE WINTER...AND PRECIPITATION
EVENTS WILL PROVIDE ONLY TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM FIRE DANGER...AS LOW
HUMIDITY AND SEASONALLY GUSTY WINDS QUICKLY RE-CURE ABUNDANT FINE
FUEL. FEW ADDITIONAL BURN BANS HAVE BEEN ENACTED DURING THE LAST FEW
WEEKS...BUT HALF OF THE COUNTIES IN THE NWS FORT WORTH AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY CURRENTLY HAVE FORMAL BANS IN PLACE.
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CLIMATE SUMMARY...
FOR NEARLY ALL OF NORTH TEXAS...PRECIPITATION TOTALS HAVE BEEN BELOW
NORMAL THE PAST 16 MONTHS. IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS...ANNUAL
DEFICITS FOR 2008 EXCEEDED 20 INCHES. THE DEFICITS HAVE INCREASED
FURTHER AS OF LATE...WITH MOST OF NORTH TEXAS SEEING LESS THAN HALF
OF NORMAL VALUES THE PAST 3 MONTHS. FROM DUBLIN (ERATH COUNTY)...TO
COMANCHE...TO NEAR GOLDTHWAITE...3-MONTH TOTALS ARE UNDER 1/2 INCH.
WHILE BENEFICIAL...THE PRECIPITATION EVENT OF JANUARY 5-6 WAS
LARGELY INSUFFICIENT TO EASE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. TOTALS WERE FAIRLY
LIGHT IN AREAS WEST OF I-35. ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS EAST OF I-35
SAW EVENT TOTALS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH...MONTH-TO-DATE TOTALS ARE
NEAR NORMAL IN MANY OF THOSE AREAS. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS
NEEDED TO PREVENT ANOTHER MONTH WITH WIDESPREAD DEFICITS.
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PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
WITH FREQUENT POLAR AND ARCTIC INTRUSIONS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE MINIMAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. AS A RESULT...EXPANSION OF
MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IS LIKELY. IN ADDITION...
LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER LOOK TO PROVIDE
LITTLE RELIEF. THE LIKELIHOOD OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION THE NEXT
FEW MONTHS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS IS LIKELY TO WORSEN THE ONGOING
DROUGHT.
ALTHOUGH ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE EQUATORIAL
PACIFIC...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF A RETURN TO ENSO COLD PHASE.
REGARDLESS...NEITHER ENSO-NEUTRAL NOR LA NINA PORTEND A LIKELIHOOD
OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. WITH WINTER A CLIMATOLOGICAL
MINIMUM FOR PRECIPITATION...DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE UNLIKELY TO
IMPROVE THE NEXT FEW MONTHS.
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HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
DESPITE 16 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS WITH BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...MOST
NORTH TEXAS RESERVOIRS REMAIN ABOVE 80 PERCENT CAPACITY. HOWEVER...
THERE HAVE BEEN NOTICEABLE DECLINES SINCE THE SUMMER MONTHS. IN
SPITE OF THE TRANSITION TO THE COLD SEASON...AND THE REDUCED USAGE
AND EVAPORATION THAT COMES WITH IT...SPORADIC RAIN EVENTS HAVE BEEN
UNABLE TO KEEP PACE WITH LOSSES. A HANDFUL OF AREA LAKES HAVE FALLEN
BELOW 70 PERCENT CONSERVATION...THE MOST NOTABLE OF WHICH IS LAKE
WHITNEY AT ONLY 21 PERCENT.
RESERVOIR DATA - JANUARY 11, 2009
NORMAL POOL CURRENT PERCENT OF
POOL HEIGHT DEFICIT CONSERVATION
RED RIVER BASIN
LAKE TEXOMA 616.6 616.48 -0.12 100
PAY MAYSE LAKE 451.0 449.02 -1.98 90
JIM CHAPMAN LAKE 440.0 433.70 -9.30 61
TRINITY RIVER BASIN
LAKE BRIDGEPORT 836.0 828.07 -7.93 75
EAGLE MOUNTAIN LAKE 649.0 644.35 -4.65 79
LAKE WORTH 594.0 592.33 -1.67 85
LAKE BENBROOK 694.0 686.62 -7.38 66
LAKE RAY ROBERTS 632.5 630.01 -2.49 91
LAKE LEWISVILLE 522.0 518.00 -4.00 82
LAKE GRAPEVINE 535.0 527.69 -7.31 70
LAKE LAVON 492.0 487.71 -4.29 81
LAKE RAY HUBBARD 435.5 434.05 -1.45 93
JOE POOL LAKE 522.0 519.57 -2.43 88
BARDWELL LAKE 421.0 417.94 -3.06 80
NAVARRO MILLS LAKE 424.5 421.57 -2.93 75
CEDAR CREEK RESERVOIR 322.0 319.67 -2.33 89
RICHLAND CHAMBERS 315.0 310.44 -4.56 83
BRAZOS RIVER BASIN
POSSUM KINGDOM LAKE 1000.0 997.49 -2.51 90
PROCTOR LAKE 1162.0 1157.31 -4.69 62
BELTON LAKE 594.0 591.29 -2.71 92
STILLHOUSE HOLLOW 622.0 617.14 -4.86 87
LAKE GRANBURY 693.0 690.63 -2.37 87
LAKE WHITNEY 533.0 523.29 -9.71 21
AQUILLA LAKE 537.5 533.65 -3.85 65
WACO LAKE 462.0 459.21 -2.79 88
LAKE LIMESTONE 363.0 360.55 -2.45 84
IN GENERAL...WATER SUPPLIES ARE STILL ADEQUATE TO HANDLE DEMAND...
THUS THE DROUGHT REMAINS PRIMARILY ONE OF AGRICULTURAL IMPACT. SOME
LOCAL WATER SUPPLIES HAVE ENACTED STAGE 2 WATER RESTRICTIONS...BUT
MOST JURISDICTIONS HAVE MAINTAINED CALLS FOR VOLUNTARY CONSERVATION
WITHOUT FORMAL RESTRICTIONS. EVEN IF WATER RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR YOUR AREA...RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO BE
SENSIBLE ABOUT WATER USAGE. AVOID WATERING BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6 PM...
WHEN EVAPORATION LIMITS ITS EFFECTIVENESS.
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NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
AN UPDATED DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED IN EARLY
FEBRUARY.
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RELATED WEB SITES...
NWS FORT WORTH DROUGHT PAGE -
http://weather.gov/fortworth/drought.html
NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM -
http://drought.gov/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER -
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER -
http://drought.unl.edu/
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR -
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/
DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER -
http://droughtreporter.unl.edu/
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR FACILITATES CONTINUOUS DISCUSSION AMONG
NUMEROUS AGENCIES...ACADEMIA...AND OTHER LOCAL INTERESTS. THE
EXPERTISE OF ITS MEMBERS HAS BEEN INVALUABLE IN DEVELOPING DROUGHT
PRODUCTS AND SERVICES FOR OUR CUSTOMERS AND PARTNERS.
THE DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER (MAINTAINED BY THE NATIONAL DROUGHT
MITIGATION CENTER) HAS ALLOWED VARIOUS IMPACTS TO BE COMPILED WITHIN
ONE CLEARING HOUSE. THESE IMPACTS INCLUDE AGRICULTURAL ISSUES...
HYDROLOGIC DEFICITS...FIRE DANGER...AND OTHER SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC
CONSEQUENCES. A SUMMARY OF THE SUBMITTED IMPACTS IS INCLUDED IN EACH
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT.
THE TEXAS DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE AND THE TEXAS AGRILIFE EXTENSION
SERVICE PROVIDE ROUTINE ASSESSMENTS OF CROP AND PASTURE CONDITIONS
TO THE NATIONAL AGRICULTURE STATISTICS SERVICE (NASS)...PART OF THE
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE (USDA). THE PERIODIC
STATEWIDE SUMMARIES THAT RESULT ARE USED AS A PRIMARY SOURCE FOR THE
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS SECTION.
THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE (TFS) CONTINUALLY MONITORS VEGETATION
CONDITIONS AND WILDFIRE POTENTIAL. THE STATE AGENCY ALSO MAINTAINS A
CURRENT LIST OF COUNTYWIDE BURN BANS.
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ARE SUMMARIZED FROM A
VARIETY OF PRODUCTS CREATED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC).
CPC IS A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (NWS) ENTITY WITHIN THE NATIONAL
CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION (NCEP).
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QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK ON OUR DROUGHT
PRODUCTS AND SERVICES...PLEASE CONTACT...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
3401 NORTHERN CROSS BLVD.
FORT WORTH, TX 76137
PHONE: (817) 429-2631
E-MAIL: SR-FWD.webmaster@noaa.gov
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